Premier League Preview: Week 25

Some truly ridiculous results from the SI smileys in the midweek matches! The model found value in Bournemouth to beat Chelsea, Newcastle to beat Man City (as well as both to score), and both teams to score in Liverpool's draw with Leicester. Long live the winners!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Tottenham v Newcastle

When: Sat 2 Feb 11:30pm EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES

Not only did Newcastle’s equaliser against Manchester City get our Week 24 set of free plays off to a flying start, but premium subscribers would have noticed an orange smiley for the Maggies to win! How does the model manage? Sometimes I don’t even know! 

Let’s hope they and Tottenham can deliver us a triple treat in the early Saturday night game. The Stats Insider model has identified three orange smileys here, and we'll give you a taste of one of them here as we fancy both teams to score at Wembley.

Tottenham have enjoyed 2-1 wins in the last fortnight away and at home, while Newcastle have scored in five of their last six league matches on the road. Both teams have also scored in four of the last six H2H meetings dating back to 2015, with those four all producing over 2.5 total goals.

Spurs remain without Alli and Kane but are likely to welcome back Trippier and Dier and will trot out a very talented XI if Son Heung-min passes a late fitness test. Newcastle could get any or all of Shelvey, Diame and Dummett back into the matchday squad and Rafa may even name an unchanged XI to the one that knocked off Man City last week. Their scoring power will be boosted greatly if new signing Miguel Almiron plays immediately. 

As seen on 'The Edge' on the TAB website/app below, you can get a healthy price of 2.05 for both to score, despite a slim majority of 52.2% of our 10,000+ simulations producing such a result. That equates to a lovely 6% edge in favour of the 'yes'. 

What are the other two orange smileys? You'll have to try a Premium subscription and check out the match page, which is constantly updating!

Chelsea v Huddersfield

When: Sun 3 Feb 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

A 4% edge to be snapped up as Chelsea are likely to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Bournemouth against the hapless Huddersfield, who have lost ten of their last 11 and have failed to score in their last three.

Aaron Mooy's return to football couldn't help Huddersfield find their first win since November, with an FA Cup loss to Bradford City rubbing salt in a near-fatal wound. He should start this time around, with Billing also a potential return. That would at least give them some better opportunities to at least find the back of the net, as they have done in exactly half of their league matches and in two of their three meetings with Chelsea in the last two seasons.

Of the five league/cup meetings between these sides this century, Chelsea have won four and drawn one, with four of them also producing over 2.5 total goals. 

With the average market price of 1.58 suggesting a ~60% likelihood of over 2.5, the 64.4% of simulations coming up with this result means you're getting overs for a solid favourite. Who doesn't love that?

It gets even better - this match also has a whopping 8% edge in another major market to be taken advantage of. What is it? You can find out with a free trial of our Premium subscription! 

Crystal Palace v Fulham

When: Sun 3 Feb 2:00am EDT

The Play: Crystal Palace to win

The Eagles have been a beacon of inconsistency right throughout the season so it's tough to know which side is going to turn up week to week. The SI model has found value in them grinding out their first win in four weeks against a Fulham side who are by far the worst travellers in the league (W0 D2 L10). 

One major problem: the sending off of Zaha in the midweek match. That'll be a huge loss and likely opens up the door for Schlupp to make a return, and Townsend and Ayew leading the front third. 

Fulham could draw inspiration from their first month of the season, where they followed up a 4-2 win at home with a 1-1 draw away at Brighton. They're yet to follow up a home win with a point in the next match. Can they replicate a 1-1 draw here? They're likely to stick with the same XI that scored a blistering four second-half goals to run over the top of Brighton on Tuesday night.

I'd be treading this one carefully, but value is value nonetheless. A 50% probability should equate to a 1.90 price, so 2.05 for Crystal Palace is a touch overs when 50.7% of simulations are coming up with a Palace victory. Prefer the other two plays above, but you've got the orange smiley seal of approval for this one if you fancy it!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is The Edge?

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