Premier League Preview: Week 26

Another winning week for our free EPL plays, with two out of three matches saluting very comfortably (including a very juicy $2.05 for Crystal Palace to beat Fulham - what a steal)!

With the title race well and truly heating up ahead of another FA Cup weekend, we look elsewhere for value - and boy is there plenty of it, with a total of eight orange smileys and one green to choose from (at time of publication)!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Huddersfield v Arsenal

When: Sun 10 Feb 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Arsenal have dropped out of the top five after three losses in their last six matches, and the easiest of all away trips presents them with the best opportunity to snatch their first away victory since November (D2 L4). 

Winning should be no problem here for the Gunners: Huddersfield have conceded the first goal in nine of their last eleven Premier League games, and have ended up collecting a grand total of zero points from those nine. Arsenal have scored inside the first 15 minutes of three of their last four on the road, so recent trends show they should close this out early. 

With a potentially tricky March to come, expect them to make the most of the remainder of this month, and they should snap a run of consecutive 1-0 wins against Huddersfield with something a little more gluttonous. Ten of Arsenal’s last 12 away PL games have gone over 2.5, as have five of Huddersfield’s seven games so far against the “big six”. 

Don’t discount the Terriers getting on the board themselves here: Arsenal have failed to keep a single away clean sheet this season (the only club to do so), even dropping goals against Cardiff (3-2) and Fulham (5-1) in comfortable away victories. 

Furthermore, Aaron Mooy and Phillip Billing are back to full fitness, while Arsenal lose Rob Holding and Sokratis to injury, while Mustafi is in the matchday squad but still a little uncertain. 

A minor edge in favour of the over 2.5 goals here, but it looks a very easy play to take. 58.3% of at least 10,000 match simulations are producing such a result, and the $1.75 currently available with our good friends at the TAB is reasonably juicy. 

Liverpool v Bournemouth

When: Sun 10 Feb 2:00am EDT

The Play: Both to Score - YES

Have Liverpool let this slip again? Certainly not yet, according to our futures table, which still has the Reds winning 48% of simulations of the remainder of the season. They return home with a great opportunity to stop the rut of two consecutive draws against a Bournemouth side that they have a three-game winning streak over (scoring eleven goals to zip in that time).

I’m confident they can get the job here, however it’s not the H2H market that interests us here: given that Liverpool have kept just the one clean sheet in their last six overall and in one of their last five at home, we’re keen on the edge identified in favour of both teams scoring. 

Liverpool have scored two or more in their last six matches against Bournemouth (all comps), with all six matches going over 2.5 goals. They should have no issues scoring against the Cherries once again here. What remains to be seen is whether Bournemouth can find their 13th away goal in their 13th trip: they did find the back of the net in heavy losses against both Manchesters, so there is certainly hope. 

My major concern with this play is the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold: a huge defensive boost to Liverpool’s back four, and after Milner’s struggles at right-back last week, it couldn’t be more timely for the Reds. 

As seen on TAB's ‘The Edge’ (powered by Stats Insider) bookies are currently offering $1.95 for both teams to score - an outcome that is coming up in nearly 54% of the model’s simulations. According to our probabilties you should be getting around $1.80-$1.85 for this play! 

Brighton v Burnley

When: Sun 10 Feb 4:30am EDT

The Play: Brighton to win

Two smileys on offer for our subscribers. Our readers here get a taste of one of them. Brighton haven’t quite made a fortress out of their home this season but with Burnley’s 2018/19 travelling woes (only five teams have lost more games away), the Stats Insider model sees a good price in Brighton finding their sixth victory at home this season.

The Seagulls have a W5 D4 record against clubs outside the top four going into this round, which suggests a shade of inconsistency but their five goals to one record inside the first half hour at home, should get them off to a positive start, and one they should be able to hold on to, given that Burnley lament a -9 goal difference in the second-half away from home (the equal-fourth worst in the league). 

Burnley’s only two wins away from home this season have been against clubs in the relegation zone going into this round, with a D4 L6 record against those sitting above them on the table. 

Alireza Jahanbakhsh could return into the starting XI as could Bernardo, despite a 120-minute stint midweek. For Burnley, they lose three: Lennon, Walters and Defour. 

The SI model currently has the hosts winning a shade over half of at least 10,000 match simulations, so we believe the true price of Brighton should be closer to $1.90-$1.95. The $2.05 currently on offer is wonderful value. 

What’s the other 6% edge currently identified for this fixture? Try a free trial to Stats Insider Premium and take a look. 

Wolves v Newcastle United

When: Tue 12 Feb 7:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Our week of free plays ends early on Tuesday morning as Wolves look for their fourth on the trot, and their first league win at home against Newcastle since 1992 (D2 L2 since)! This one in particular, is another high-value, double-smiley game (you’ll have to take up a free trial of Stats Insider Premium to see the other one!), but I’m particularly interested in a 9% edge in favour of this match going over 2.5 goals.

At the time of publication, it remains to be seen whether Diogo Jota will recover from a knock sustained against Everton, though even without him, the in-form Raul Jimenez (four goals and an assist in his last five appearances) and Matt Doherty (three goals against Shrewsbury) are likely to give a Newcastle side who haven’t won any of their last four on the road (D1 L3) a tough time. 

As an MLS follower, I’m particularly interested to see whether new recruit Miguel Almiron gets any game time for Newcastle now that his work permit has been granted. Hopefully he can turn around what has so far been Newcastle’s equal-worst Premier League season this decade: they were struggling on 24 points at this time in their ill-fated 2015/16 relegation battle, and are by no means safe yet (they are being relegated in 10.1% of SI season simulations). 

Wolves’ last four Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 goals - they have scored ten and conceded seven in those four games - while three of Newcastle’s last four have also saluted for overs bettors. While the TAB are currently offering $2.20 for this play, our model has it paying off in 51.7% of simulations - certainly not a sure thing, but a fantastic price nonetheless! 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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