Premier League Preview: Week 27

A sluggish week for the predictions of the EPL model last week if you followed our early content, though the model's projections did improve closer to kickoff. It always pays to check the match pages on the day of the game!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our English Premier League match predictions plus more soccer content.

Cardiff City v Watford

When: Sat 23 Feb 6:45am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

The fun begins on Saturday morning (AEST) with an edge currently available on one of the two Friday night matches as Cardiff City look to find some further breathing space from the relegation places. We’re on the side of history here: ten of the last 11 H2H meetings in Wales have produced over 2.5 total goals, with Cardiff scoring 2+ in six of their last seven at home against Watford, and - after two goals each against Bournemouth and Southampton - they’re in a great position to bring a juicy collect for the overs backers.

In fact, 62% of their home Premier League games this season have gone overs, including five of their last seven, as have three of Watford’s last five away from home, after they found just their third away clean sheet at Everton.

The Bluebirds should be fresh after a weekend off, hopefully with no momentum lost, and an almost full-strength side with Richards the only questionable starter at this stage. Watford’s recent away record has been super impressive (just one loss from their last nine away games in all competitions) and they’re high on confidence after FA Cup glory. 

Whereas the price currently available for the over 2.5 goals pick with our good friends at the TAB is $2.05, the SI model has 50.6% of simulations falling that way. By no means the strongest play we’ve ever identified, but if it’s worthy of an orange smiley it’s worth backing!

(Side note: Cardiff have won every match where they have opened the scoring)

Burnley v Tottenham

When: Sun 10 Feb 2:00am EDT

The Play: Both to Score - YES

Burnley are another side looking to find some more comfortable space between themselves and the relegation zone, and could challenge the well-travelling Tottenham off the back of a seven-game unbeaten run (W4 D3). 

But it’s not the H2H market we’re interested in on this occasion - there are two orange smileys available on this match! Premium subscribers are entitled to both, while our loyal readers get this one for free.

Burnley have scored in their last seven matches at home, and after home goals against four clubs in the top half going into this round, I’m happy to take the 6% edge currently in favour of both teams scoring here. They could be fielding an unchanged lineup, with Steven Defour still in doubt. Just two goals in their last five H2H meetings with Spurs is of some concern, but they’ve found some good form while Tottenham have managed just one clean sheet in their last five matches.

Spurs’ scoring capabilities have barely struggled without Harry Kane - in fact, as mentioned in our Monthly Movement segment, his replacement Fernando Llorente is piling on the goals and assists at a quicker rate than Kane! The Korean, Son, is also banging them in for fun, while the likely return of Danny Rose gives Pochettino’s side some extra playmaking power. 

While the price of $1.80 for both teams to score suggests about a 53% likelihood, it’s in fact occuring  in 58.6% of Stats Insider match simulations. A 5-6% edge to take advantage of. 

What’s the other high value edge for this match? Try a free trial of Stats Insider's Premium subscriptions and find out!

(Side note: Son Heung-min has scored in all four competitive appearances since returning from the Asian Cup)

Huddersfield v Newcastle

When: Sun 10 Feb 2:00am EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES

Rafa’s men are just one point above the relegation zone but are enjoying a much easier run home than many of their rivals, including a home game against fellow battlers, Huddersfield, here. After Huddersfield scored against Arsenal at home last week to get a juicy free play up, we’re willing to try our luck again as the model has found a 5% edge in favour of both teams scoring on this occasion also, while there’s also a second orange smiley for Premium subscribers.

Newcastle escaped to Spain for a short training camp during the Cup weekend, with four starters all returning from injury in a friendly against CSKA Moscow. Dummett, Darlow, Diame and Sung-yueng are all under consideration for spots in the matchday squad, while Miguel Almiron may make a long anticipated Premier League start.

Phillip Billing is likely to start for Huddersfield, as is Karlan Grant who found his first goal for the Terriers against Arsenal. 

While both teams are scoring in just 49.2% of 10,000+ Stats Insider simulations in this matchup, you’re currently getting a nice price of $2.15 to take on what is essentially a 50/50 market. As I love to say, who wouldn’t take $2.15 for a coin flip?

What’s the other high value edge for this match? Try a free trial of a Premium subscription and find out!

(Side note: 12 of the 26 away goals conceded by Huddersfield have fallen inside the final half hour)

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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