Hope you like backing goals! We often see plenty of them after a midweek round and we have picked out four orange smileys from Week 29 of the EPL where the bookies have kept the "under 2.5" or the "one or neither team scoring" prices a bit too safe for their own good...

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

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This week's free plays are...

Brighton v Huddersfield

When: Sun 3rd March 2am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Brighton welcomed back seven players from injury to the midweek matchday squad against Leicester and are expected to field a much stronger outfit at home to condemned Huddersfield. 

Despite a winless run of seven now (D2 L5), including losses to fellow battlers Burnley and Fulham, Brighton remain warm favourites against a team who snapped their own 14-game winless streak at home to Wolves during the week. 

With a further home games still to come against bottom four clubs (Southampton and Cardiff), Brighton falling to relegation would be one of the chokes of the decade!

The injury troubles persist for the ‘gulls: Pascal Gross and Leon Balogun have both been ruled out for this one. Steve Mounie will likely keep his starting spot up front for the Terriers after finding just his second goal of the season during the week, while our man Aaron Mooy may return to the XI in place of Jon Gorenc Stankovic.

It’s a case of “surely but maybe not” for Brighton finding their first win of 2019 here, and the model has found that, despite being a less likely outcome, there’s a bit of juice in backing the overs in the total goals market here. Brighton have scored in 85% of home games this season with 46% of them finding a total of over 2.5, although the latter number has been steadily decreasing. 

Conversely, Huddersfield have failed to score in their last six away games including even at Cardiff and Fulham. Nearly 44% of simulationsare producing totals over 2.5, which makes 2.40 a nice price to take a stab at. As always, if you can’t back an orange smiley with confidence, you can also take it as advice that the other potential outcome is poor value with the bookies. 

To discover the other orange smiley available for this match, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

Wolves v Cardiff City

When: Sun 3rd March 2am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

The Robin Hood of the Premier League continues to take points from the rich only to give them to the poor, so who knows what Wolves are going to dish up against a Cardiff opposition who are back to their losing ways despite fighting desperately. That said, the bulk of their points since Boxing Day have come on the road, including at Leicester, so they’re not without a chance here.

Wolverhampton will almost certainly bring an unchanged lineup home, while Cardiff welcomes back Oumar Niasse who wasn’t allowed to play against Everton, while wingers Murphy and Paterson should be fit enough to start here.

Five of the last six H2H matches between these sides (dating back to the beginning of 2016) have all produced over 2.5 total goals, and with both teams scoring and conceding regularly of late, we’re happy to see the model find some value in favour of the overs on this occasion. 

Five of Cardiff’s last six matches have fallen overs, while Wolves have just one clean sheet to their name in their last 11 league games. 

You’d take 2.00 for a coin toss, as I always like to say! 53% of simulations are coming up with total scores over 2.5, while the bookies are leaning narrowly the other. It makes for a minor 5% edge, but one I believe is worth taking. 

To discover the other orange smiley available for this match, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

Manchester United v Southampton

When: Sun 3rd March 2am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

The Red Devils continue to charge for Champions League football - a prospect that looked nigh-on-impossible in early December, but incredibly they’re yet to lose a league game under Solskjaer (W9, D2) despite a real scare against Burnley five weeks ago. 

Liverpool’s 0-0 draw at Old Trafford snapped a streak of six United home matches that all produced over 2.5 total goals and there is another minor edge in favour of normal service resuming when plucky Southampton come to town. Both teams have scored in 14 of Southampton’s last 18 league matches, with 12 of them seeing three or more goals scored. 

The return of Marcus Rashford to the starting XI promotes confidence, while the price has firmed a touch as speculation of Danny Ings’ return to football also grows. Alexis Sanchez probably misses the XI, while Andreas Pereira is rumoured to be getting just his fourth start of the season.

The punters have snapped up the 1.75-1.80 available earlier in the week for over 2.5 goals as the Rashford and Ings news came out, and yet remarkably the model still comes up with a 4% orange smiley for the 1.70, with nearly 61% of 10,000+ simulations resulting in over 2.5 goals here. 

To discover the other edges available for Week 29 of the EPL, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

Fulham v Chelsea

When: Mon 4th March 1:05am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Fulham haven’t beaten Chelsea since 2006, even at home, and their recent form - just one victory in their last eight PL matches - gives little confidence to suggest they can snap that run here. Fulham have won two of their last four at home, but both against fellow bottom five clubs Brighton and Huddersfield. 1-1 draws against Wolves and Watford are the best results they have found at home against top ten clubs. 

That said, they did find the back of the net in comprehensive home losses to Spurs and Arsenal, which gives BTS backers some hope here against a Chelsea side who have just two clean sheets in their last six matches, as part of a fairly lean 38% clean sheet record away from home. 

How often do we see all kinds of sporting teams bouncing back immediately after the dismissal of a head manager/coach? Ranieri was shown the door on Thursday and Fulham legend Scott Parker, who briefly played for Chelsea, takes the caretaker role. It remains to be seen how much of a shake-up he would wish to make to this XI.

The visitors, meanwhile, welcomes back Kepa as they move on from the Carabao final saga, while Hazard may be rested in favour of Willian after a tiring midweek match against Spurs. 

As seen in ‘The Edge’ on the TAB website,59% of Stats Insider simulations see both teams scoring in this clash, which identifies the 1.75 price as some decent value (a 5% edge). 

To discover the other orange smiley available for this match, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

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READ: What is the Edge?

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