Two double-play matches to come in the Premier League this week, plus our thoughts on the potential top-four playoff between Arsenal and Manchester United. Another big week of Premier League football to get stuck into!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

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This week's free plays are...

Crystal Palace v Brighton

When: Sun 3rd March 2am EDT

The Play: Both to Score - YES

Crystal Palace are just one of two Premier League clubs to be performing better on the road than at home this season and get a chance to begin rectifying that against a poorly-travelling Brighton in the opening game of the Saturday card. Victory for either club will almost certainly seal survival with eight weeks to play. 

Palace have since jumped ahead of Brighton on the table with three wins in their last six matches (D2 L1), losing only to Manchester United in that time. They have scored in their last nine matches, but conversely, have maintained just two clean sheets in that time. 

Brighton snapped a seven-game winless run at home to the dead and buried Huddersfield and haven’t shown a lot to reassure their fans and Chris Hughton that they’ll be safe by the end of March. They’ve kept one paltry clean sheet on the road this season, with both teams scoring in six of their last eight overall. 

Expect an unchanged lineup for Palace to the one that won convincingly at Burnley, with Wan-Bissaka back to full fitness and Batshuayi back in scoring form. For the ‘gulls, Pascal Groß is still in doubt but may take the field (keep an eye on that one), and Florin Andone may get a rare start after finding the winner off the bench last week. 

With both teams scoring in all but of Crystal Palace’s last eight league matches as well, we’re chuffed to see the model come up with an orange smiley in favour of the ‘yes’ here. In fact, a 6% edge as seen on ‘The Edge’ on the TAB website/app. The bookies are leaning towards the ‘no’ at about 1.80 at time of publication, but the model has it going the other way! That makes for a great play to begin the weekend. 

To discover the other orange smiley available for this match, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

This week's free plays are...

Chelsea v Wolves

When: Sun 3rd March 2am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Wolves’ make their first competitive trip to Chelsea since a 6-0 League Cup drubbing in 2012, and while top five is out of reach now for the visitors, they continue to rack up the points (14 in their last seven weeks), even knocking off Everton and Tottenham away since Christmas. 

Chelsea haven’t been able to match it with the best since the December victory over Man City, but the bulk of their 2019 points have come from home, where they have won three from four this calendar year (D1). They have kept a clean sheet in three of those four, but conceding at home to four of the eight bottom-half clubs they have faced at home this season suggests they’re certainly vulnerable to coughing up one or two here.

They should be fielding a strong team here: Kante, Higuain and Hazard will all return to the XI after being rested, while Pedro should take his place as RW over Willian. 

Wolves, the Robin Hood of the competition (taking points from the rich and giving them to the poor), have scored in ten of their 14 away trips this season, including at three of the ‘big six’ that they have played away. After scoring three per game for four consecutive weeks throughout Jan-Feb, their goal scoring has since slowed down somewhat. 

They’ll start Jimenez and Jota up forward, with Saiss tucked behind them in centre-mid after a fantastic performance last week. The over 2.5 play looks particularly solid here - worthy of an orange smiley face, in fact. It’s coming up trumps in over 58% of 10,000+ simulations, so 1.80 from our good friends at the TAB is a steal. 

To discover the other orange smiley available for this match, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

This week's free plays are...

Arsenal v Manchester United

When: Sun 3rd March 2am EDT

The Play: Arsenal to win

Take note - there’s no official value play to be identified here, but certainly one to keep an eye on: the model currently has a 3% edge in favour of Arsenal to extend their PL winning streak at home to nine straight. United have had some support to win in the market after some sharply contrasting European results for both clubs during the week (the Red Devils triumphing in Paris and the Gunners flopping to Rennes).

The Europa result will no doubt be quickly forgotten by the Gunners who are ‘gunning’ for a Champions League spot, and will certainly need to lift their travelling game to somehow leapfrog a red-hot United. However, their home form has been scintillating: eight in a row for an aggregate score of 23-5, scoring 2+ in their last six, and while they’ve bullied all bottom five clubs in that eight game run, they’ve also managed to knock off the well travelling Spurs and Chelsea in that time. 

They’ll be going about it without Lucas Torreira who begins a three-week ban, while Alexandre Lacazette returns and likely pushes Aubameyang to the bench. The two haven’t played as a pair since the defeat to Man City in early February, and given that they’re the only two quality strikers Arsenal has, it has made sense for Emery to rotate them throughout the season. 

United’s transformation under Ole Gunner Solskjaer has been more than well documented, and they have not dropped a single point away from home under his watch - they too have beaten Tottenham as well as a few of the struggling brigade down in the bottom lately. They’ve been leading at HT & FT in their last four league matches on the road. 

Worth noting that Arsenal’s last defeat at home in any competitive football was to United in the FA Cup. Keep an eye on the match page for this one: if the 3% edge in favour of the hosts grow, you may have a winner worth taking. 

To discover the other value plays available for Week 30 of the EPL, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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