Previewing Potential Week One NRL Finals Matchups

Seven teams have already been ruled out of playing finals football and the Tigers are also unlikely, so our eight finals teams are all but locked in.

Just how the ladder shapes up by the end of Round 25 is anybody's guess, but we here at Stats Insider have run the simulations over the final 16 games of the home and away season to come up with a prediction of who we will be going head-to-head in week one of the finals.

Note: the order of teams is not a prediction of who will be hosting – simply the likelihood of the two sides playing one another.

Most Likely Matchups

Roosters v Rabbitohs (47.37%)

It's the matchup rugby league fans want in Week 1; the oldest and fiercest rivalry in the game.

Both with a win each in their head-to-head games this season, there's a good chance we see the third instalment for the year with the winner earning a week off ahead of a preliminary final berth.

Luke Keary returns to play the Broncos this week giving him two games to organise Latrell Mitchell and Daniel Tupou on the left side. Sydney is a 60% chance at beating Brisbane on Saturday ahead of a very winnable Round 25 match against Parramatta.

Meanwhile, Greg Inglis makes his long-awaited return to slot back in a left centre against the Raiders. Souths have two weeks to recreate what was the best attacking left edge in the NRL before his injury. The Model likes Souths to beat Canberra in 60% of simulations before facing Wests next week.

Provided the Storm keep winning as well (60% chance this week), this is our 2nd v 3rd matchup.

Warriors v Panthers (45.18%)

We are getting a sneak preview of a likely Week 1 matchup on Friday night as the Warriors host the Panthers.

It's a massively important game for the Warriors who can not only confirm their place in the Top 8, but ensure the Panthers' run of poor form continues through to next week.

Despite winning three of their last four games, Penrith haven't looked like a relevant finals side for a month. They needed three late comebacks to get past average opposition - something that is unlikely to be repeated in September.

The Model likes the Warriors to win in 66% of the simulated matches this week. A Panthers loss on Friday ahead of the Storm in Round 25 would have them on the back foot heading into Week 1 of the finals.

While the fixture is a 45.18% chance of happening, whether it's 5th vs 8th or 6th vs 7th remains to be seen.

Storm v Rabbitohs (32.70%)

Such is the congestion at the top of the ladder, the Rabbitohs feature in two of the three most likely finals matchups.

Roosters v Rabbitohs would be a 2nd v 3rd matchup with the ladder remaining as it is now through to the end of Round 25. However, should Souths lose to the Raiders this week or the Tigers next Friday, there's a chance they drop to 4th.

That would be a disaster for the Rabbits if the Storm holds onto 1st.

Souths have never beaten Melbourne at AAMI Park in seven attempts. Their last was a nightmare 64-6 thrashing in Round 25 in 2017.

Broncos v Dragons (29.78%)

So, the Model doesn't like the idea of the Dragons holding onto 4th on the ladder.

Their late-season capitulation could culminate in a match against a Broncos side that has had the wood over them in recent years. St George did manage to win 34-12 in Round 1, but they'd lost 12 of the 13 games before that.

The Dragons season is on the slide but the Model likes them against the Bulldogs this week in 66% of simulations. The news isn't so good for the Broncos who are only given a 40% chance of beating the Roosters. But if they do pull off the upset like they did earlier in the year, they'll all of a sudden be a serious player in the finals.

Unwanted Opponents

Storm v Sharks (25.08%)

Without Cooper Cronk in the side, the Storm aren't the calm team they were in 2017.

They don't have the steady voice and the half that can lead them out of trouble when things are going uncharacteristically bad. That's been especially evident in their two losses to the Sharks in 2018.

Cronulla loves to get under the opposition's skin and frustrate them into errors. Nothing excites them more than a grit and grind win.

The Storm's injuries will make Week 1 tough enough, but playing the Sharks might make it worse.

Broncos v Rabbitohs (1.90%)

It would take a monumental collapse from the Rabbitohs and some unexpected results from the Broncos and those around them to happen, but this is the last fixture Souths would want in Week 1.

The Broncos have won the last seven games between the pair with the latest only last week.

It took just four minutes for everybody to be reminded that Corey Oates eats all the meat pies he wants whenever he plays the Rabbitohs.

A genuine hoodoo and one that has started to get a mention every time they play one another, Souths will have one eye on Brisbane and the relevant results in the hope they don't meet in the first week of September.

Whatever happens this weekend, Stats Insider will be following all the action now and through the Finals series. Make sure you're checking out our fixtures page and Match Pages for each individual game.

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