Even without Italy spectacularly blowing their qualification for a second-straight World Cup, the lead up to the globe's pre-eminent sporting event still feels a little weird.

For starters, this World Cup will be held in the Gulf for the first time with Qatar claiming the hosting rights. If that’s not strange enough, the tournament is set to kick off in November tossing a further curveball at a football universe more familiar with a traditional northern hemisphere summer start time. 

To add the confusion we have an English team who’ve built up an incredible head full of steam and who’ve been placed in a relatively gentle part of the draw. Some are even suggesting that by the time it all kicks off, the Three Lions will actually be the betting favourites. 

Speaking of predictions, the number crunchers at Stats Insider have been working overtime, and now that the draw has been released have been able to run thousands of simulations as to how it all may play out. 

Let’s take a look at the model’s eight main contenders.

RELATED: Check out all of Stats Insider's World Cup projections 

Brazil

Stats Insider World Cup Win Projection- 15.1%

The 5-time champs seem as well placed as they’ve been in a while to get their hands on a sixth title and first in 20 years. The Seleção tore South American World Cup qualifying to shreds going undefeated over their 17 matches and posting a staggering +35 goal difference in the process- almost doubling Argentina’s equally impressive, undefeated +19 GD campaign. 

While Neymar chipped in with a team-high 8 goals during qualifying, the attention has drifted away from the Paris-based star with no less than 9 other Brazilians scoring multiple times through qualification. Equally important to note that in that Alisson and Ederson Brazil boast two of the world’s premier shot-stoppers as well.  

Punters- At TopSport, Brazil are the betting favourites, with $5.5 on offer about them winning it all. 

England

Stats Insider World Cup Win Projection- 12.6%

The English national football team are low hanging fruit when it comes to sporting ridicule with their litany of big tournament failures overshadowing their solitary 1966 World Cup win. With that said, the Three Lions are heading to Qatar as perhaps the most in-form team on the planet. They’re unbeaten in their last 21 games and fired home a UEFA-best 39 goals over their 10 qualifying games with Harry Kane contributing 12 while taking his International tally to 69 over 49 games. 

England will take one of the world’s best balanced squads to this year's tournament and one that’s bursting with established, in-form veterans along with some of the best young talent in the modern game. Most importantly, and like France, they would have been ecstatic with their draw which has the potential to keep them adrift from so many of the big guns of world soccer until later in the tournament.

Punters- At TopSport, England are paying $6.75 to ‘bring football back home’ this December. 

France

Stats Insider World Cup Win Projection- 11.5%

The reigning World Cup champs are probably the most talent-laden team heading to Qatar, with Les Blues possessing star power on every line and who'll look to become the first back-to-back World Cup champ since Brazil in 1958-1962. 

Despite France’s deep reserves of class there is a high combustibility factor with this team, with most of the blame centred on manager Didier Deschamps who’s been accused of a lack of adventurism in his tactics, while remaining conservative in terms of his squad selections. It’s important to note however that Deschamps did change things up in qualification to ensure progress, shifting to a 3 the back, with the team now boasting 7 straight wins which includes claiming the Nations League crown last October. 

If the group stage goes their way in Qatar, and the teams who ought to win their group indeed do, France could separate themselves from all of Brazil, Argentina, the Netherlands and one of either Spain or Germany once the knock-out phase begins. 

Punters- At TopSport, France are paying $7 to go back-to-back.

Spain

Stats Insider World Cup Win Projection- 8.8%

While they’re no longer the dominant global footballing force they were a decade ago, Spain have reinvented themselves under manager Luis Enrique. After falling from international relevance since winning the Euro’s in 2012, Spain has re-emerged as a serious contender signalled by their brave run to the semi’s at last year’s Euros narrowly missing out on a place in the finale.

If Spain is to make a run for glory it’ll come down to an exceptional midfield populated by the likes of Pedri, Gavi, Dani Olmo and Ansu Fati. If a genuine striker can emerge over the next 6 months and have his game peak at the World Cup, the sky's the limit for this team.

Punters- At TopSport, Spain are paying $9 to claim a second World Cup crown.

Belgium

Stats Insider Projection- 8.7%

To say the Belgians are the bridesmaids of world football would be a massive understatement. Over the last ten years they’ve attended all of football’s most significant ceremonies and while much attention has been focused on their style, they’ve always had to vacate the stage for more serious contenders. 

Their most recent World Cup was their best yet, producing a semi-final run which ended in a 1-0 defeat at the hands of France. Should they go a step to two further they’ll need to find other avenues outside of the familiarly and legendary figures of Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukuaku and Eden Hazard.

Punters- At TopSport, Belgium are paying $13 to bring home a first-ever World Cup trophy. 

Argentina

Stats Insider Projection- 7.8%

Yes, this team is still all about Lionel Messi with the living legend piloting his team to a Copa America win last year and captaining his country through a faultless qualifying campaign.

Most importantly however Argentina is no longer solely about Messi. They exited at the round of 16 stage of the last World Cup (and to the eventual winners France no less) yet the team they’ll be taking to Qatar promises to be a lot more dangerous. Since Russia 2018, Lautaro Martínez has developed into one of the world’s premium forwards, while newly added Julian Alvarez could be anything. Equally, Argentina’s holes aren’t nearly as pronounced in defence with the likes of Christian Romero leading the backline and with the exceptional Emiliano Martinez in goal. They haven’t won a world cup since Mexico 1986, but will be a huge chance of making a big splash later this year.

Punters- At TopSport, Argentina are paying $10 to win the World Cup for a third time. 

Portugal

Stats Insider Projection- 6.4%

While they did require a playoff win against North Macedonia to seal their progression to a 5th-straight World Cup, it’d take a brave person to dismiss Portugal’s bonafides, especially as this looks to be Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup. 

Like Belgium, Portugal have done a great job remaining continually relevant, and while they ddid break through to win Euro 2016, they've for the most part, like Belgium, watched on while others have collected the big trophies. They’ve also been handed a reasonable draw too with a group that consists of Ghana, South Korea and Uruguay.

Punters- Portugal have never won the World Cup, but you can get $9 about that scenario changing this December.

Germany

Stats Insider Projection- 5.9%

The 4-time champs are currently going through a little bit of face change. No longer is Joachim Löw pulling the strings, and no longer is defence this nation’s calling card with much of its talent now located in youth, speed and particularly in the form and promise of Kai Havertz.

Germany are never down for long and after making a mess of their World Cup defence in 2018, and after being tossed aside by England at last year’s Euros, you can be sure they’ll be breathing fire by the time it all gets underway later in the year. 

Punters- At TopSport, Germany are paying $12 to get their hands on a record-equalling 5th World Cup title.

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