QLD vs NSW State of Origin Game 3 Prediction 2024
Jul 14, 2024, 11:23PM
Queensland will sqaure off with New South Wales in Game 3 of the 2024 State of Origin series at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday, commencing at 8:05pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for State of Origin Game 3, plus the latest betting odds and try scorer tips, are featured in this article.
Who Will Win: State of Origin Game 3
Using detailed machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Game 3 of the 2024 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Maroons a 51% chance of winning against the Blues at Suncorp Stadium.
QLD vs NSW Game 3: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Suncorp Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Queensland $1.85, New South Wales $1.95
- Line: Queensland -1.5 ($1.91), New South Wales +1.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 41.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change. Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Queensland at $1.85 and NSW at $1.95.
Queensland is listed as a 1.5-point favourite against New South Wales, with odds of $1.91 currently available at TAB.
For the underdog New South Wales (+1.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored sits at 41.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the over at $1.91 and odds for the under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's model, NSW (+1.5) has a 52% chance of covering the line, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has a 51% chance of staying Under.
More: Best Bets Today for All Sports
State of Origin Game 3: Best Bets
- Head to Head: New South Wales at $1.95
- Line: NSW +1.5 at $1.91 (52% probability)
- Total Points: Under 41.5 at $1.91 (51% probability)
Today's State of Origin Game 3 predictions are based on detailed modelling and gambling intelligence to give you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
While Queensland has a higher chance of winning the game, betting on NSW to win is our preferred option because of the edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term success as a punter.
State of Origin Game 3: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for State of Origin Game 3 at Suncorp Stadium this Wednesday has the Maroons winning 21-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of State of Origin Game 3 on Wednesday, including pre-match predictions and free betting tips.
State of Origin Game 3: Try Scorers
Who will score the first try in Game 3 of State of Origin? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Selwyn Cobbo is the most likely player to score the first try in QLD vs NSW.
Cobbo has a 7.7% chance of scoring the first try at Suncorp Stadium, while the QLD star has a 42.0% chance of scoring a try at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
Queensland Maroons
- Selwyn Cobbo: 7.7% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 6.7% probability
- Reece Walsh: 5.9% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 4.9% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 4.4% probability
New South Wales Blues
- Brian To'o: 7.0% probability
- Zac Lomax: 6.4% probability
- Bradman Best: 5.2% probability
- Stephen Crichton: 4.8% probability
- Angus Crichton: 4.6% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
Queensland Maroons
- Selwyn Cobbo: 42.0% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 40.3% probability
- Reece Walsh: 33.8% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 33.5% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 30.2% probability
New South Wales Blues
- Brian To'o: 37.3% probability
- Zac Lomax: 37.3% probability
- Stephen Crichton: 30.5% probability
- Bradman Best: 29.7% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 26.5% probability
Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting tips before the Queensland vs New South Wales game at Suncorp Stadium.
As always, check out our Best Bets to get betting tips on every State of Origin match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on, including every game of the 2024 NRL season.
QLD vs NSW Game 3: Preview
The State of Origin Game 3 between Queensland and New South Wales at Suncorp Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: Queensland vs New South Wales
- Date: Wednesday 17 July 2024
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Our State of Origin Game 3 predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our State of Origin predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on State of Origin
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