Race To London: ATP Finals Leaderboard - 23rd Sept, 2019
Last updated: Sep 30, 2019, 11:27PM | Published: Sep 25, 2019, 3:46AM
This image is a derivative of IMG_9938 by Marianne Bevis (CC BY-ND 2.0)
The race to London is heating up.
The top eight players from 2019 will get the chance to lift the Nitto ATP Tour Finals trophy in a season ending showdown. We look at the all the contenders and their quest towards greatness.
(This ladder will be updated each week, tracking the top players points, what to expect in their next tournament and some helpful stats)
Rafael Nadal
ATP Rank: 1st
Points: 9225 (Qualified)
Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters ATP 1000
Rafael Nadal was scheduled to play in the China Open but has decided to put his feet up and recuperate. The two-week break should help Nadal push for a strong result in the ATP 1000 event in Shanghai. Expect nothing less than a semi-finals appearance from the Spaniard, who is having yet another record-breaking year.
Key Stats:
Nadal has won a whopping 37.2% of return games over the past 52 weeks, putting him head and shoulders above his competition. Nadal is 5.5% better over the second-placed Novak Djokovic, who many believe is one of the greatest returners of serve the game has ever seen.
Novak Djokovic
ATP Rank: 2nd
Points: 7265 (Qualified)
Next Tournament: Rakuten Japan Open ATP 500
This is Novak’s debut Rakuten Open and going into this tournament, Stats Insider’s World Rankings has Novak as the second-best hardcourt player only behind Nadal. The Rakuten open is sporting a strong field with 11 of the top 30 players entering. Novak should always go into an event as a favourite but keep an eye out if he lands in Stan Wawrinka’s side of the draw.
Key Stats:
Novak leads the ATP tour in break-points converted with 46.4%. Give this all-time great a chance and he is going to push you to breaking point.
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Roger Federer
ATP Rank: 3rd
Points: 5510 (Qualified)
Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters ATP 1000
Roger Federer is not playing until the 6th of October in the Shanghai Masters. This rest break should serve the 38-year old well and give him ample opportunity for a big run at Shanghai. Federer has won this event only twice in his career and will need a superhuman effort to claim his third title in a ‘Grand Slam’ like playing field. We could expect a semi-final appearance for Federer but with all this young talent coming through, a fourth-round/quarter-final loss is possible if he pulls Daniil Medvedev or Stefanos Tsitsipas in his side of the draw.
Key Stats:
Roger Federer is 15-3 (83.3%) in Masters 1000 events this year. On hardcourts in 2019 he is winning a massive 91.5% of service games and that jumps to 92.5% in Masters 1000 tournaments.
Daniil Medvedev
ATP Rank: 4th
Points: 4805 (Qualified)
Next Tournament: Beijing China Open ATP 500
Daniil Medvedev looks to keep the hot streak going in China. An intense five-set loss against Rafael Nadal in the US Open should give him plenty of confidence he can match the best on the biggest stage. China is featuring a strong field of young players and Medvedev should be in fine form to make no less than a semi-final.
Key Stats:
Daniil has the most Indoor Hardcourt wins over the past 52 weeks with a 22-6 record and two titles to his name. Stats Insider's World Rankingalso has him ranked the fourth-best player in the world on Hardcourts.
Dominic Thiem
ATP Rank: 5th
Points: 3845
Next Tournament: Beijing China Open
After a first-round shocker against Thomas Fabbiano at the US Open, Dominic Thiem needs to bounce back quickly. He should be fighting for a semi-final appearance in China, finding himself a good rhythm heading into the Shanghai Masters, where he could look to become the fifth man to qualify for London.
Key Stats:
On hardcourts this year, Thiem has won 87.5% of his deciding sets. This puts him in third place behind only Kevin Anderson and Richard Gasquet. If Thiem is up for the grind, he is more than likely to get the job done.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Rank: 6th
Points: 3160
Next Tournament: Huajin Securities Zhuhai Championships
What to expect:
What's not to like about Tsitsipas? He plays a fun brand of tennis, seems like a genuinely top bloke and the ladies love him.
The only problem is can you trust him? Tsitsipas’s only consistent results come on Clay courts and after that, it's just a guessing game. Stats Insider's World Rankingshas Tsitsipas ranked 14th in the world and 17th on hardcourt. More consistency will see him climb the ranks, where we should see him become a permanent fixture in Grand Slam Semi-Finals.
Tsitsipas is the number one seed in this tournament which boasts four of the top fifteen players in the world. Tsitsipas should comfortably make the quarters where he can take care of the dangerous Marco Cecchinato or Lucas Pouille. He could then face the big-hitting Frenchman in Gael Monfils where he holds a 2-1 head-to-head record. Landing in the much easier half of the draw, you can expect Tsitsipas to make the semi-finals where Monfils could prove too strong.
Key Stats:
Tsitsipas is only 5-5 against top 20 opponents this year and only won 64.5% of matches on hardcourt. Tsitsipas is a much safer bet on the Clay courts.
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Roberto Bautista Agut
ATP Rank: 7th
Points: 2350
Next Tournament: Huajin Securities Zhuhai Championships ATP 250
Roberto Bautista Agut has achieved his highest ranking to date and the Spanish bull doesn’t want to stop here. His sights are set on a debut Nitto ATP finals berth.
Bautista Agut is the second seed for this tournament. He has found himself on the same side of the draw as the dangerous Nick 'King' Kyrgios. If Bautista Agut survives this, he will potentially face another Australian in Alex De Minaur or fourth seed Borna Coric. An honourable loss to Kyrgios won't cut it for the Spaniard who needs to go deep, to keep his hopes of making it to London.
Key Stats:
Bautista Agut who relies heavily on his baseline game needs to get into rallies to win matches. He is currently ranked 9th on the tour for second serve return points won at 53.4%. Bautista Agut also has a handy 20-7 record on hardcourts this year.
Matteo Berrettini
ATP Rank: 8th
Points: 2185
Next Tournament: China Open ATP 500
What to expect: After a shock loss to the 119th ranked Egor Gerasimov in the quarter-finals of St. Petersburg last week, Matteo Berrettini still finds his way past Kei Nishikori for the eighth spot in the race to London.
An unknown player to most casual fans before this season, Berrettini has burst onto the scene with a massive US Open semi-final result. With a strong field in China, a good result for Berrettini will probably be a quarter-final appearance. This will keep his chances for a top-eight finish alive in a fight to hold off Nishikori, Zverev and a surging Gael Monfils.
Key Stats:
Stats Insider's World Rankings has Berrettini ranked 65 on hardcourts which aligns with his 10-10 record on hardcourt this season. Five of those wins came in the US Open.
Kei Nishikori
ATP Rank: 9th
Points: 2180
Next Tournament: Rakuten Japan Open ATP 500
Nishikori, a two-time champion of this event, needs a strong result to shoot into the top eight. The Japanese fans will expect him to win the event, but there is a swarm of talent looking to stop him. Look for the home crowd support to take him far into the event. Being the second seed means he can’t face Novak until the final but he will still have to defeat the likes of Stan Wawrinka, Kevin Anderson, Borna Coric or David Goffin on his way. Success will be a semi-final encounter for Nishikori, who is looking to get the eight position back from Berrettini who past him last week.
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Key Stats:
Nishikori is 7-3 in ATP 500 events this year but is yet to beat a top five ranked player. If getting a look at a second serve Nishakori is winning 54.1% of points, placing him sixth on the ATP tour.
Alexander Zverev
ATP Rank: 10th
Points: 2120
Next Tournament: China Open ATP 500
Zverev is scheduled to play the China Open for the fourth year running. Anything less than a semi-final will be a disappointing result for the German who needs to find consistency when it matters. Zverev is yet to beat a top 10 opponent this year and will need to if he is any chance of hoisting the trophy in China.
Key Stat:
Zverev’s win loss record played on Indoor hardcourts sits at 13-3 over the past 52 weeks. This puts him in second place only behind Gael Monfils. He is look for some strong results in the coming months indoor tournaments, to help push himself into the top eight.
David Goffin
ATP Rank: 11th
Points: 2080
Next Tournament: Rakuten Japan Open ATP 500
David Goffin should be the 4th seed in the Japan Open. There is a chance he makes a semi-final where he would face Novak Djokovic but getting past the quarters would in itself be a huge challenge with some strong competition in Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson, Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka or the tricky drop shot enthusiast Benoit Paire.
Key Stat:
Stats Insider's World Rankings has Goffin ranked 20 and only the 29th ranked player on hardcourts. Goffin holds a 13-11 recordon the hardcourts this year and 4-4 record in ATP 500 events.
Gael Monfils
ATP Rank: 12th
Points: 2080
Next Tournament: Huajin Securities Zhuhai Championships ATP 250
Gael Monfils enters the tournament as the third seed and has found himself into a brilliant half of the draw. Monfils should see off Ramos-Vinolas in the quarters and I am tipping him in a showdown against Tsitsipas in the semis. A final will be a great result for Monfils who is looking to make a leap into the top eight. With four tournaments over the next month Monfils should be able to climb the rankings coming into the ATP finals.
Key Stats:
Stats Insider World Rankings has Monfils ranked the 6th best player in the world on hardcourt. It’s no surprise as Monfils has won 82.1% (23-5) of his matches on the surface this year. The Frenchmen also has a tours best 14-3 record played indoors this season.
Still a sneaky chance:
Fabio Fognini
ATP Rank: 13th
Points: 1965
Diego Schwartzmen
ATP Rank: 14th
Points: 1850
READ MORE ABOUT STATS INSIDER'S TENNIS WORLD RANKINGS:
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