Racing on Stats Insider: Derby Day at Flemington 3/11/18
Last updated: Nov 5, 2018, 11:02AM | Published: Nov 5, 2018, 3:47AM
Following the launch of Horse Racing predictions just in time for the Spring Racing Carnival, we've taken a look back at Saturday's featured meeting at Flemington for Derby Day.
SEE OUR LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP RATINGS
TAKE A LOOK BACK AT OUR LAUNCH DAY RESULTS
TAKE A LOOK BACK AT OUR PREVIOUS WEEK'S WARWICK FARM RESULTS
For those who haven't seen it yet, here's an excerpt from our article Introducing Horse Racing to Stats Insider on how our Horse Racing model works:
"The Stats Insider racing model is similar - but different - to the existing sporting models. Based on approximately 120 data points per horse - including race-specific data, and past sectionals - the models are trained on predicting each horses time for a particular race, given previous performances, track conditions, barrier draw and other statistical factors.
The simulation of the race - like each game in a sporting sense - is then run 10,000 times by the Stats Insider model, and displayed as an "SI Rating”, which is an approximation of the relative projected time between horses over the course of all simulations. At this stage, the model is in its development - "advisory only" - stage, as we continue to refine it, with full fields and value summary-style smiley system (like our sports) coming in the not-too-distant future."
START YOUR FREE TRIAL OF STATS INSIDER PREMIUM
Essentially, our model gives each horse in each race an SI Rating out of 100. We've then featured our top 4 rated horses for each race, at each meeting. We will have our ratings published the morning of each major metro race day during the Spring Carnival.
For approximate results, we've simply assumed a $1 WIN bet placed on each of the Top 4 rated horses in each race. While this is not our recommended betting method, for example's sake only this gives us a bit of an idea of the model's worth.
SEE OUR LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP RATINGS
READ OUR MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW
Using TAB Vic Tote odds, scroll through for every race result, followed by overall meet and day's results at the end:
AAMI VICTORIA DERBY DAY: Flemington
Race 1 - The Carbine Club Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Ranier (98) | $4.60 | $1 | $3.60 |
| Vassilator (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Zargos (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Yulong January (96) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 2 - Mumm Wakeful Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| El Dorado Dreaming (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Verry Elleegant (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Aristia (95) | $7.10 | $1 | $6.10 |
| Sizzleme (95) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 3 - The TAB Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Osborne Bulls (98) | $2.70 | $1 | $1.70 |
| Missrock (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Winter Bride (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Runson (94) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 4 - Lexus Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Brimham Rocks (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| A Prince of Arran (98) | $4.60 | $1 | $3.60 |
| Jaameh (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Sixties Groove (93) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 5 - Coolmore Stud Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Written By (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Lean Mean Machine (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Zousain (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Sunlight (95) | $5.00 | $1 | $4.00 |
Race 6 - Empire Rose Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Amphitrite (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Oohood (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| I Am A Star (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Aloisia (95) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 7 - AAMI Victoria Derby
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Thinkin' Big (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Aramayo (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Stars of Carrum (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Extra Brut (93) | $12.20 | $1 | $11.20 |
Race 8 - Kennedy Mile
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Land of Plenty (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Best of Days (97) | $11.60 | $1 | $10.60 |
| Cliff's Edge (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Hartnell (96) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 9 - Furphy Sprint
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Snitty Kitty (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Petrelle (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Resin (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| From Within (92) | $1 | -$1 |
The day's results finished at seven winners from nine races, plus seven placings.
It was a good day for high-priced winners, with EXTRA BRUT getting up at $12.20, BEST OF DAYS at $11.60 and ARISTIA at $7.10, showing not only a great strike rate on our predictions, but some good profitability across the board.
At the conclusion of AAMI Victoria Derby Day, we have seen our bettor stake a total $36 dollars at $1 per runner, and walk away with a total of $48.80 for a $12.80 profit, or return of a healthy 35.55% POT.
While we don't (and won't) tell you how much to bet, or explicitly what you should bet on, what this shows is that a punter could have staked equally over our top-rated runners at Flemington and still profited over 35.55% of their original stake. That's a day very well spent at the races!
Remember, these are VIC Tote odds at TAB only - the savvy punter shopping around for best odds could have been even further ahead!
Given this method is for example only, we can only stress that this is not our recommended betting system. This is in development at the current time to match our prediction system across the rest of our sporting portfolio.
We will publish our ratings the morning of each major metro raceday during the Spring Carnival.
CHECK OUT OUR MELBOURNE CUP RATINGS
READ OUR MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW
Remember, you can get all our racing ratings FREE for a limited time only. Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.
Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!
