Racing on Stats Insider: Melbourne Cup at Flemington 6/11/18
Last updated: Nov 8, 2018, 12:16AM | Published: Nov 7, 2018, 2:16AM
Following the launch of Horse Racing predictions just in time for the Spring Racing Carnival, we've taken a look back at Tuesday's featured Melbourne Cup meetings at Flemington and Randwick.
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For those who haven't seen it yet, here's an excerpt from our article Introducing Horse Racing to Stats Insider on how our Horse Racing model works:
"The Stats Insider racing model is similar - but different - to the existing sporting models. Based on approximately 120 data points per horse - including race-specific data, and past sectionals - the models are trained on predicting each horses time for a particular race, given previous performances, track conditions, barrier draw and other statistical factors.
The simulation of the race - like each game in a sporting sense - is then run 10,000 times by the Stats Insider model, and displayed as an "SI Rating”, which is an approximation of the relative projected time between horses over the course of all simulations. At this stage, the model is in its development - "advisory only" - stage, as we continue to refine it, with full fields and value summary-style smiley system (like our sports) coming in the not-too-distant future."
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Essentially, our model gives each horse in each race an SI Rating out of 100. We've then featured our top 4 rated horses for each race, at each meeting. We will have our ratings published the morning of each major metro race day during the Spring Carnival.
For approximate results, we've simply assumed a $1 WIN bet placed on each of the Top 4 rated horses in each race. While this is not our recommended betting method, for example's sake only this gives us a bit of an idea of the model's worth.
Using TAB Vic Tote odds, scroll through for every race result, followed by overall meet and day's results at the end:
LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP DAY: Flemington
Race 2 - TAB App Trophy
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| One More Try (98) | $5.00 | $1 | $4.00 |
| Miss Siska (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Mamzelle Tess (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Mrs Gardenia (94) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 3 - Grinders Coffee Roasters (BM90)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Fifty Stars (100) | $3.20 | $1 | $2.20 |
| Haunted (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Eclair Calling (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Mandela Effect (94) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 4 - Ronald McDonald House (BM96)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Ilwendo (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Steel Prince (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Azuro (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Doukhan (96) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 5 - Schweppes Flemington Fling
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Roosevelt (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Singular Sensation (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Fine Dane (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Chabreet (93) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 6 - Jim Beam Black Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Beauty (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Jen Rules (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Notation (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Madam Rouge (94) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 7 - Lexus Melbourne Cup
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Marmelo (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Yucatan (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Best Solution (92) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Muntahaa (90) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 8 - Furphy Plate
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Kaonic (100) | $10.60 | $1 | $9.60 |
| Take It Intern (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Life Less Ordinary (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Mahamedeis (93) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 9 - MSS Security Sprint
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Brave Song (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Tversky (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Trekking (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Teleplay (95) | $22.20 | $1 | $21.20 |
Race 10 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Savapinski (85) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Savatiano (74) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Our Crown Mistress (74) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Mintha (70) | $1 | -$1 |
The day's results at Flemington finished at four winners from nine races, plus twelve placings (not shown on the above as we don't account for placings under our $1 per runner "results").
At the conclusion of Lexus Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington, we have seen our bettor stake a total $36 dollars at $1 per runner, and walk away with a total of $44.00 for an $8.00 profit, or return of a healthy 22.22% POT.
Randwick
Race 1 - Schweppes (BM70)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Orcein (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Mangione (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Stardome (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Jarhead (96) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 4 - APN Outdoor (BM70)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Shangani Patrol (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Ilwendo (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Heartlet (96) | $11.50 | $1 | $10.50 |
| Plagiarist (95) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 5 - The Agency Real Estate (BM70)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Campari (98) | $3.20 | $1 | $2.20 |
| High Power (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Moet Rose (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Travancore (95) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 6 - Agency Projects Choisir HCP
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Isaurian (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Tactical Advantage (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Marsupial (96) | $5.50 | $1 | $4.50 |
| Dissolute (92) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 7 - Heineken 3 (BM74)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Let's Party Marty (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Tony's Reward (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Deity (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Super Star Bob (94) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 8 - TAB.com.au (BM70)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Velocita (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Nai'a (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Readycatgo (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Sweet Ava (95) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 9 - 2019 Membership (BM76)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Danzie (100) | $5.10 | $1 | $4.10 |
| Watchdog (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Omineca (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Kaapfever (93) | $1 | -$1 |
Randwick saw nearly identical strike rate results to its Victorian counterpart, with four winners and twelve placings from our seven races.
The day wasn't quite as successful as at Flemington, as we've seen our bettor stake a total $28 dollars at $1 per runner, walking away with a return of $27.30 for a $0.70 loss, or a -2.5% POT.
It was a good day for high-priced winners, with HEARTLET getting up at $11.50 in Sydney, TELEPLAY at $22.20 and KAONIC at $10.60 in Melbourne, showing some good profitability across the board.
While we don't (and won't) tell you how much to bet, or explicitly what you should bet on, what this shows is that a punter could have staked equally over our top-rated runners at Flemington and Randwick and still profited over 12.37% of their original stake. The success at Flemington more than made up for Randwick's disappointment, making for a successful overall day's punting!
Remember, these are TAB VIC Tote odds - the savvy punter shopping around for best odds could have been even further ahead!
Given this method is for example only, we can only stress that this is not our recommended betting system. This is in development at the current time to match our prediction system across the rest of our sporting portfolio.
We will publish our ratings the morning of each major metro raceday during the Spring Carnival.
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