Racing on Stats Insider: Warwick Farm Results 24/10/18
Last updated: Oct 26, 2018, 4:25AM | Published: Oct 25, 2018, 4:57AM
Following the launch of Horse Racing predictions a couple of weeks ago, we've taken a look back at yesterday's (Wed 24th Oct 2018) featured meet at Warwick Farm.
TAKE A LOOK BACK AT OUR LAUNCH DAY RESULTS
For those who haven't seen it yet, here's an excerpt from our article Introducing Horse Racing to Stats Insider on how our brand new Horse Racing model works:
"The Stats Insider racing model is similar - but different - to the existing sporting models. Based on approximately 120 data points per horse - including race-specific data, and past sectionals - the models are trained on predicting each horses time for a particular race, given previous performances, track conditions, barrier draw and other statistical factors.
The simulation of the race - like each game in a sporting sense - is then run 10,000 times by the Stats Insider model, and displayed as an "SI Rating”, which is an approximation of the relative projected time between horses over the course of all simulations. At this stage, the model is in its development - "advisory only" - stage, as we continue to refine it, with full fields and value summary-style smiley system (like our sports) coming in the not-too-distant future."
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Essentially, our model gives each horse in each race an SI Rating out of 100. We've then featured our top 4 rated horses for each race, at each meeting. We will have our ratings published the morning of each major metro raceday during the Spring Carnival.
For approximate results, we've simply assumed a $1 WIN bet placed on each of the Top 4 rated horses in each race. While this is not our recommended betting method, for examples sake only this gives us abit of an idea of the model's worth.
Using TAB Vic Tote odds, scroll through for every race result, followed by overall meet and day's results at the end:
Warwick Farm
R1 - Maiden (no data)
R2 - Maiden (no data)
15:10 R3
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| SHANGANI PATROL (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| TAMARACK (99) | $2.40 | $1 | $1.40 |
| ILWENDO (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| JAGGER (94) | $1 | -$1 |
15:50 R4
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| ELLIE'S ENCORE (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| REPRIMAND (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| BEWARE (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| ABSOLUTE RIPPER (94) | $35.50 | $1 | $34.50 |
16:30 R5
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| ANDAZ (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| WATCHDOG (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| CAMPARI (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| CHAUSSURE (92) | scr | scr |
17:10 R6
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| POHUTUKAWA (100) | $3.80 | $1 | $2.80 |
| SO MAGIC (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| SWEET AVA (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| PRAHAAR (96) | $1 | -$1 |
17:50 R7
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| VELOCITA (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| ANDAZ (95) | scr | scr | |
| NACHO LIBRE (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| DANZIE (94) | scr | scr |
In a huge win, we had a massive outsider in ABSOLUTE RIPPER take out Race 4, paying a very juicy $35.50 on the TAB Tote!
Now, if you were following along on race day, you would have seen our top four rated runners in Race 3 fill up the exotics with the First Four, take out a boxed Quinella/Exacta in Race 4, as well as 1st and 3rd in Race 6. But we won't include this in the "official results!"
The day's results finished at three winners, plus seven placings from our 17 starters.
As has become the norm this Spring, we saw many short priced winners, as we have in our previous featured race days at Caulfield and Randwick, which shows a great strikerate for the model without much profitability - but this time saved by one big roughie in Race 4.
At the conclusion of race day, we have seen our bettor stake $17 dollars at $1 per runner, and walk away with a total of $44.70 for a $24.70 profit, or return of over a whopping 145% POT.
While we don't (and won't) tell you how much to bet, or explicitly what you should bet on, what this shows is that a punter could have staked equally over our top-rated runners at Warwick Farm and still profited over 145% of their original stake. That's a seriously good day at the races!
Remember, these are VIC Tote odds at TAB only - the savvy punter shopping around for best odds could have been even further ahead!
Here's a quick recap of all our raceday results based on the above method:
Warwick Farm 24/10 Total Staked $17, Total Profit $24.70 (5 races, 3 winners)
Caulfield 20/10 Total Staked $35, Total Profit -$10.60 (10 races, 7 winners)
Randwick 20/10 Total Staked $30, Total Profit -13.50 (8 races, 5 winners)
Caulfield 17/10 Total Staked $32, Total Profit -$1.20 (8 races, 6 winners)
Randwick 17/10 Total Staked $21, Total Profit -$9.40 (7 races, 4 winners)
LAUNCH DAY 10/10 Total Staked $57, Total Profit $12.50 (16 races, 11 winners)
Total Profit: $2.50 (1.3% POT) Strike Rate: 66.66% (54 races, 36 winners)
What this shows is that the SI Ratings winning strike rate is very good, however the last few meetings have been punctuated by winners shorter than $4 in most races, with the equal staking method across all rated runners struggling to show everyday profitability (despite being $2.50 up for a total POT of 1.3%).
Given this method is for example only, we can only stress that this is not our recommended betting system. This is in development at the current time to match our prediction system across the rest of our sporting portfolio.
We will publish our ratings the morning of each major metro raceday during the Spring Carnival.
Remember, you can get all our racing ratings FREE for a limited time only. Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.
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