Racing on Stats Insider: Week 1 Results
Last updated: Oct 19, 2018, 5:53AM | Published: Oct 15, 2018, 5:12AM
Following the launch of Horse Racing predictions last week, we've taken a look back at the first two major race meets featured on Stats Insider.
As a reminder, from our article Introducing Horse Racing to Stats Insider:
"The Stats Insider racing model is similar - but different - to the existing sporting models. Based on approximately 120 data points per horse - including race-specific data, and past sectionals - the models are trained on predicting each horses time for a particular race, given previous performances, track conditions, barrier draw and other statistical factors.
The simulation of the race - like each game in a sporting sense - is then run 10,000 times by the Stats Insider model, and displayed as an "SI Rating”, which is an approximation of the relative projected time between horses over the course of all simulations. At this stage, the model is in its development - "advisory only" - stage, as we continue to refine it, with full fields and value summary-style smiley system (like our sports) coming in the not-too-distant future."
Essentially, our model gives each horse in each race an SI Rating out of 100. We've then featured our top 4 rated horses for each race, at each meeting.
For approximate results, we've assumed a $1 WIN bet placed on the Top 4 rated horses in each race. Using TAB Vic Tote odds, scroll through for every race result, followed by overall meet and day's results at the end:
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Randwick
13:05 R2 TAB HIGHWAY HCP (C3)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| MEDITERRANEAN (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| TRISTAN DE ANGEL (96) | $8.10 | $1 | $7.10 |
| VELARO (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| SAXTON ROCK (95) | $1 | -$1 |
13:40 R3 DAILY TELEGRAPH REGINALD ALLEN
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| I'M SO SWEET (96) | scr | scr | |
| CRISTOBAL (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| EVALINA (91) | $1 | -$1 | |
| UNGUARDED (91) | $1 | -$1 |
14:15 R4 THE STAR MILE (BM100)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| FIERCE IMPACT (98) | scr | scr | |
| KAONIC (97) | 1 | -$1 | |
| GOODFELLA (97) | 1 | -$1 | |
| STAMPEDE (96) | $8.70 | 1 | $7.70 |
14:50 R5 THE KOSCIUSZKO
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| VICTOREM (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| THE MONSTAR (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| DON'T GIVE A DAMN (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| SNITZ (95) | $1 | -$1 |
15:30 R6 CAMERA HOUSE SYDNEY STAKES
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| PIERATA (99) | $4.00 | $1 | $3 |
| KEMONO (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| JUNGLE EDGE (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| DOTHRAKI (92) | $1 | -$1 |
16:15 R7 THE TAB EVEREST - (see our pre-race preview here)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| REDZEL (99) | $7.80 | $1 | $6.8 |
| TRAPEZE ARTIST (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| SHOALS (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| VEGA MAGIC (96) | $1 | -$1 |
Now, if you followed on raceday, you would have seen our top two rated horses in the richest race on turf take out the quinella - with TRAPEZE ARTIST paying a juicy $2.70 for the place. If you'd had a dollar on the quinella straight up, you would have seen a nice return of 100% being $48.00. But we won't include this in the "official results!"
16:50 R8 360 DMG CRAVEN PLATE
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote Vic Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| EGG TART (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| MOSS 'N' DALE (99) | $4.80 | $1 | $3.8 |
| IT'S SOMEWHAT (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| COMIN' THROUGH (96) | $1 | -$1 |
17:35 BISLEY WORKWEAR ST LEGER STAKES
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| PATRICK ERIN (100) | scr | scr | |
| HARIPOUR (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| LIBRAN (97) | scr | scr | |
| HARPER'S CHOICE (93) | $1 | -$1 |
So, at the end of the Randwick raceday, we have seen our bettor stake $28 dollars at $1 per runner, and walk away with $33.40 for a $5.40 profit, or return of over 19% POT.
While we don't (and won't) tell you how much to bet, or explicitly what you should bet on, what this shows is that a punter could have staked equally over our top rated runners at Randwick and still profited over 19% of their total stake. Stats Insider 1, Randwick 0.
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SEE ALL RANDWICK RATINGS FOR SATURDAY 20TH OCTOBER
Caulfield
12:45 R2 WEEKEND HUSSLER STAKES
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| OZI CHOICE (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| FIERCE IMPACT (85) | scr | scr | |
| COMICAS (84) | $1 | -$1 | |
| VIOLATE (83) | $1 | -$1 |
13:20 R3 THOROUGHBRED CLUB STAKES
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| SUNLIGHT (99) | $1.90 | $1 | 0.9 |
| MERYL (97) | $1 | -1 | |
| GOLDEN HALO (95) | $1 | -1 | |
| BLEU ROCHE (93) | scr | scr |
Look, a $2 winner is't exactly "value," but a winner is a winner, and we'll take it - as will any punter!
14:30 R5 KENO SCHILLACI STAKES
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| BALL OF MUSCLE (95) | $9.60 | $1 | $8.6 |
| VOODOO LAD (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| SNITTY KITTY (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| FLEET REVIEW (94) | $1 | -$1 |
15:10 R6 SCHWEPPES THOUSAND GUINEAS
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| SMART MELODY (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| EL DORADO DREAMING (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| AMPHITRITE (95) | $12.70 | $1 | $11.7 |
| THRILLSTER (95) | $1 | -$1 |
15:45 R7 AQUIS TOORAK HCP
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| JUNGLE CAT (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| NOIRE (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| LAND OF PLENTY (95) | $3.80 | $1 | $2.8 |
| HARTNELL (95) | $1 | -$1 |
16:35 R8 LADBROKES STAKES
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| NIGHT'S WATCH (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| UNFORGOTTEN (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| D'ARGENTO (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (95) | $1 | -$1 |
17:15 R9 LADBROKES CAULFIELD GUINEAS
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| THE AUTUMN SUN (97) | $1.60 | $1 | $0.6 |
| LEONARDO DA HINCHI (93) | $1 | -$1 | |
| OOHOOD (91) | $1 | -$1 | |
| GEM SONG (89) | scr | scr |
The very hot favourite took out this one, AUTUMN SUN was our top rated runner for this race, with only 2 more out of 12 other runners into single digit odds pre-race.
17:50 R10 LADBROKES HERBERT POWER STAKES
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| BIG DUKE (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| BRIMHAM ROCKS (92) | $1 | -$1 | |
| YUCATAN (92) | $6.50 | $1 | $5.5 |
| RISING RED (89) | $1 | -$1 |
A tough one to predict, with nearly half the field of 15 into single digits pre-race. James McDonald finished off a tough day at Caulfield (with only one placing in the first 8 races) with the running double in Races 9&10 aboard AUTUMN SUN and YUCATAN.
Again, a profitable day for our dollar punter at Caulfield. Equally staking all our top rated runners at $1, we see a total of $29 bet, with a return of $36.10. A profit of $7.10, or a 24.5% POT. Caulfield 0, Stats Insider 1.
This shows a full day's results of: $57 bet in total, for a return of $69.50 - a profit of $12.50, or 22% POT.
Remember, these are VIC Tote odds at TAB only - the savvy punter shopping around for odds could have been even further ahead!
Here's what some of our members had to say:
Remember, you can get all our racing predictions FREE for a limited time only. Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.
SEE ALL CAULFIELD RATINGS FOR SATURDAY 20TH OCTOBER
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