Racing Results: Mackinnon Stakes Day
Last updated: Nov 13, 2018, 11:36PM | Published: Nov 13, 2018, 1:47AM
Following the launch of Horse Racing predictions for Spring Racing Carnival, we've taken a look back at Saturday's featured meeting at Flemington for Stakes Day and Rosehill.
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For those who haven't seen it yet, here's an excerpt from our article Introducing Horse Racing to Stats Insider on how our Horse Racing model works:
"The Stats Insider racing model is similar - but different - to the existing sporting models. Based on approximately 120 data points per horse - including race-specific data, and past sectionals - the models are trained on predicting each horse's time for a particular race, given previous performances, track conditions, barrier draw and other statistical factors.
The simulation of the race - like each game in a sporting sense - is then run 10,000 times by the Stats Insider model, and displayed as an "SI Rating”, which is an approximation of the relative projected time between horses over the course of all simulations. At this stage, the model is in its development - "advisory only" - stage, as we continue to refine it, with full fields and value summary-style smiley system (like our sports) coming in the not-too-distant future."
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Essentially, our model gives each horse in each race an SI Rating out of 100. We've then featured our top 4 rated horses for each race, at each meeting. We will have our ratings published the morning of each major metro race day during the Spring Carnival.
For approximate results, we've simply assumed a $1 WIN bet placed on each of the Top 4 rated horses in each race. While this is not our recommended betting method, for example's sake only this gives us a bit of an idea of the model's worth.
Using TAB Vic Tote odds, scroll through for every race result, followed by overall meet and day's results at the end:
SEPPELT WINES MACKINNON STAKES DAY: Flemington
Race 1 - Melbourne's Own 3AW (BM96)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Loyalty Man (99) | $6.40 | $1 | $5.40 |
| Al Passem (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Manuel (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Call It A Day (97) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 2 - JUV Diabetes Research (BM90)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Pleasuring (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Danon Roman (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Lucky For All (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| The Pinnacle (94) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 3 - Watch Racing.com Springtime
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| No Emotion (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Yulong January (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Ringerdingding (92) | $3.70 | $1 | $2.70 |
| Wagner (91) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 4 - Derucci Chatham Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Widgee Turf (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Dreamforce (97) | $6.90 | $1 | $5.90 |
| Age of Fire (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Torgersen (93) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 5 - Queen Elizabeth Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Gallic Chieftain (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Jaameh (98) | $3.10 | $1 | $2.10 |
| Lord Fandango (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Libran (95) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 6 - 7News Matriarch Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Aqua D'ivina (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Our Libretto (99) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Aloisia (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Miss Siska (95) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 7 - VRC Sprint Classic
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Redzel (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Pierata (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Brave Smash (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Redkirk Warrior (96) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 8 - Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Latrobe (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Blair House (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Trap For Fools (96) | $21.90 | $1 | $20.90 |
| Shillelagh (93) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 9 - Grand (BM80)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Order of Command (68) | $5.90 | $1 | $4.90 |
| Eurack (68) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Esperance (59) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Beacon (56) | $1 | -$1 |
The day's results at Flemington finished at six winners from nine races, plus eight placings (not shown on the above as we don't account for placings under our $1 per runner "results").
At the conclusion of Stakes Day at Flemington, we have seen our bettor stake a total $36 dollars at $1 per runner, and walk away with a total of $48.90 for a profit of $12.90, or return of a healthy 36.86% POT.
Rosehill
Race 3 - TAB Highway HCP (C3)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Tristan De Angel (97) | $6.20 | $1 | $5.20 |
| Seeblume (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Sugar Dance (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Ave (93) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 4 - Schweppes (BM88)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Sexy Eyes (100) | $1.20 | $1 | $0.20 |
| I Like It Easy (98) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Karavali (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Velocita (97) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 5 - Eden Brae Homes (BM78)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Chaussure (100) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Gitan (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Man of Peace (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Gambler's Blues (88) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 6 - Australian Turf Club (BM78)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Miss Shanti (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Sky Boy (96) | $1.60 | $1 | $0.60 |
| Nicochet (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Mazaz (90) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 7 - The Agency Real Estate (BM88)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Gaulois (99) | $2.10 | $1 | $1.10 |
| Dyslexic (97) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Tip Top (93) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Helarocity (89) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 8 - The Big Five Oh (BM78)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Bon Amis (98) | $2.10 | $1 | $1.10 |
| Sedition (95) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Sikhing Glory (92) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Chauffeur (86) | $1 | -$1 |
Race 9 - Rosehill Bowling Club (BM78)
| Horse (SI Rating) | TAB Tote VIC Odds | Bet | P / L (exc. stake) |
| Falerina (97) | $5.50 | $1 | $4.50 |
| Regimen (96) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Montrachet (94) | $1 | -$1 | |
| Brook Magic (93) | $1 | -$1 |
At Rosehill we had a very successful day strike-rate wise, picking six winners from seven races, with an additional ten placings.
However, the day wasn't quite as profitable as at Flemington, as we've seen our bettor stake a total $28 dollars at $1 per runner, walking away with a return of $20.50 for a $7.50 loss, or a -26.79% POT, thanks to the proliferation of short priced winners at the track. It is here that our $1 per runner reporting strategy falls apart, despite the 86% strikerate.
As a result, after the the entire day, we finished with a profit of $5.40 from a $64.00 outlay, or an 8.57% POT.
It was a good day for mid-priced winners, with LOYALTY MAN ($6.40), DREAMFORCE ($6.90), TRISTAN DE ANGEL ($6.20) and FALERINA ($5.50) all getting up, combining for some good profitability, though despite even more winners throughout the day, that profit started to dissipate due to the short market prices. It was TRAP FOR FOOLS at Flemington in the Stakes itself at $21.90 who stole the day though, helping provide a serious boost to our bottom line.
While we don't (and won't) tell you how much to bet, or explicitly what you should bet on, what this shows is that a punter could have staked equally over all our top-rated runners at Flemington and Rosehill, and still profited over 8.57% of their original stake. The success at Flemington more than made up for Rosehill's overall loss, making for a successful overall day's punting!
Despite Rosehill not enjoying a profitable day, the card illustrated the success of Stats Insider's strike rate, picking six winners from seven races.
Given this method is for reporting example only, we can only stress that this is not our recommended betting system. This is in development at the current time to match our prediction system across the rest of our sporting portfolio.
Also worth remembering, these are TAB VIC Tote odds - the savvy punter shopping around for best odds could have been even further ahead!
Remember, you can get all our racing ratings FREE for a limited time only. Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.
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