Last Sunday we got stupidly unlucky with Aaron Naughton kicking 1 goal 432977 behinds against the Dockers.

It should have been a big payday.

Clearly, he is not the messiah…just a very Naughton boy! 

But we bounced back mid-week in Townsville for the Origin and are poised to get 6 of our 7 golfers through the cut at the Palmetto Championship, so things are looking up enough for us to revisit some AFL bets for Round 13.

Swans v Hawks @ SCG

Books are anticipating a big Swans win and it is difficult to argue given the horrible Hawks backline. 

The initial temptation is to just load up on big Buddy for 5 and 6 Goals but Frost’s closing speed combined with the lack of value in Franklin is making us look elsewhere. 

There is plenty of places to turn! 

In fact, we are going to spend a bit here and scatterbomb that Swans forward line with ten (10) bets and hope Franklin is in one of his sharing moods;

• Heeney 3 Goals @ 3.10, 4 Goals @ 6.75, 5 Goals @ 18.25

• Papley 3 Goals @ 3.30, 4 Goals @ 7.50, 5 Goals @ 19.00

• Hayward 3 Goals @ 5.25, 4 Goals @ 14.75

• McDonald 3 Goals @ 5.25, 4 Goals @ 15.00

Dockers v Suns @ Optus Stadium

We already have a few bets here from early in the week when the Suns opened at the ridiculous price of $2.40.

At time of writing the Suns are into 1.85ish and with a question mark on the Dockers ruckman, no Fyfe and no Cox, the Suns should really be even shorter. 

On Tuesday the Suns 40+ was 12.00, pretty filthy we held fire as its now into 7’s. 

This is a pretty big game for the Gold Coast, if they win this the finals hopes are well and truly alive but losing to a depleted Dockers probably cooks their season. Dockers played a pretty brutal game in the wet last Sunday evening whilst the Suns had the week off, all signs for me point to a strong Suns win. 

We’re going to go again with Izak Rankine who kicked 3 first quarter goals in Sydney last start. He finished with 4 but could easily have had 5 or 6. If the Suns are as dominant as they should be there will be enough entries for him to have another big night. 

• Rankine 2 Goals @ 2.80, 3 Goals @ 7.75, 4 Goals @ 27.75, 5 Goals @ 95.00, 6 Goals @ 401.00 

• Rosas Goals @ 2.50, 2 Goals @ 10.75, 3 Goals @ 55.00

• Suns -51.5 @ 13.00

• Multi: Sexton 3 Goals, Rankine 2 Goals, Rosas Goal @ 22.75 

Saints v Crows @ Cazaly Stadium

The way Jamie Elliot took the Crows backline apart last week had me putting little lines underneath a few Saints forwards and with Tim Membrey being rested there is even more opportunity here. 

The big question is who. Is it Higgins? Tough to back a man with the goal kicking yips coming off 6 behinds. 

Dan Butler? He hasn’t been spending as much time close to goals lately though. 

Have to add Mason Wood into the mix now Membrey is gone, he has the speed and that awkward size which makes him a tough matchup, 3 goals two starts ago v North. 

Then there’s Lonie who comes in and knows he must hit the scoreboard to get a game next week. 

Tend to lean Mason Wood but Lonie has been missed by the books and could easily bob up for a few goals so he goes in too. 

• Mason Wood 2 Goals @ 3.00, 3 Goals @ 8.50, 4 Goals @ 28.25

• Jack Lonie 2 Goals @ 4.50, 3 Goals @ 16.75, 4 Goals @ 81.00

Let’s leave it here for now and see what Friday and Saturday night bring us in the way of returns and I will update this yarn on Sunday morning ahead of the Eagles/Tigers game and the Queens Birthday clash Monday. 

Ok two more. 

• The ‘Milky Bars are on me’ Multi: Izak Rankine 3 Goals, Jack Lonie 2 Goals, McDonald 2 Goals @ 77.00
• The ‘Don’t bet on this its dumb…but what if it hits??’ Multi: Papley, Rankine 4 Goals, Lonie 3 Goals @ 2925.00!

Ok that’s it…or is it?? 

Have a great long weekend!!