Richmond Rises in 2023 AFL Finals Probabilities

Richmond's probability of making the top eight has increased following their nail-biting win over Hawthorn in Round 19.

According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, heading into Round 20, Richmond has a 32.9% probability of making the 2023 AFL finals, despite sitting in tenth position on the ladder.

The Tigers now have a higher probability of making the top eight than the sixth placed Saints. St Kilda is at 32.9% to make the 2023 AFL finals.

Richmond is paying $3.10 on the Betfair Exchange heading into Round 20, with an implied probability 32.26% of making the eight.

The rise in probabilities for the Tigers comes after Richmond overcame Hawthorn by one point in Round 19.

Stats Insider's AFL expert said Richmond's next three games will decide the Tigers' finals fate heading into the latter stages of the season.

"Richmond faces teams above them on the ladder across the next three rounds in the form of Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda" he said.

"In at least two of those three games, they'll go in as the underdog."

He went on to say the 2023 AFL fixture opens right up for Richmond, if they can remain in touch with the eight over the next three weeks.

"Currently, our schedule difficulty analyser has the Tigers as the eighth easiest run home for the remainder of the year, which means if they can get through the next three weeks and chalk up some wins, they'll be right in finals contention. 

"The Round 20 matchup against Melbourne is the starting point, and if they can get a win in that one, the Tigers' probability of making the finals will rise even further."

Richmond next faces Melbourne in Round 20 at the MCG.

2023 AFL Top Eight Probabilities

All probabilities and odds listed in this article are correct at the time of publication.

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