Roosters Rise Up 2023 NRL Finals Probabilities
Last updated: Jun 22, 2023, 6:36AM | Published: Jun 21, 2023, 2:18PM
The Roosters are the ninth most likely team to win the 2023 NRL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's NRL futures model, the Roosters have a 50.3% chance of making the finals in 2023 after defeating the Knights 18-16 in Round 16.
The Tricolours went into the match against the Knights with a 39% win probability according to our NRL predictive model, and after recording the two-point win, rose above 50% to make the 2023 finals series.
Stats Insider's NRL expert explained that the Roosters' win over the Knights was the reason they rose in the top-eight probabilities.
"Our NRL schedule difficulty model gives the Roosters the fifth easiest run home of any team in the competition," he said.
"With games against the Raiders and Sea Eagles coming up, it's likely the model has the Roosters as favourites in the next two before the bye, which means they could be inside the top eight by the time of their week off.
"The Roosters are a single win behind the Raiders on the ladder, which makes this upcoming game pivotal. Win this one, and their finals chances will continue to rise."
The Roosters face the Raiders in Round 17, with the Tricolours holding a 58% win probability.
MORE: NRL Tips For This Weekend - Round 17, 2023
2023 NRL Finals Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Brisbane Broncos | 98.8% |
| Penrith Panthers | 98.6% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 96.8% |
| Melbourne Storm | 92.8% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 86.4% |
| Parramatta Eels | 73.0% |
| New Zealand Warriors | 62.9% |
| Canberra Raiders | 60.4% |
| Sydney Roosters | 50.3% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
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(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
