Rory Laird and Connor Rozee's 2022 AFL Brownlow Medal Performance Explained
Last updated: Oct 10, 2022, 9:11PM | Published: Sep 19, 2022, 5:27AM
The 2022 Brownlow Medal marked one of the busiest betting nights in Australia, with Patrick Cripps winning the AFL's most prestigious individual award at odds of around $5.50 with most bookies.
However, the main story making the rounds among Brownlow bettors is how two popular picks – Port Adelaide's Connor Rozee and Adelaide's Rory Laird – failed to lead their respective teams in voting.
Before the Brownlow Medal count on Sunday, September 18, 2022, it appeared that both of the South Australian clubs would have a clear leader, with Rozee having odds of around $1.14 to poll the most votes for the Power and Laird having odds of $1.04 to poll the most votes for the Crows.
With many mulits falling short by one or two legs due to Rozee and Laird, let's take a look at what went wrong for them both in the 2022 AFL Brownlow Medal.
Rory Laird (Adelaide)
- Expected total votes: 15.3
- Actual total votes: 10
After topping Adelaide's tally in 2021 with 16 votes, Rory Laird was projected as an 89.2% chance of doing so again in 2022, with his projected final votes 5.7 ahead of the next best in Ben Keays.
But after going through the first nine rounds of the 2022 Brownlow Medal count 3.1 votes below what Stats Insider's predictive analytics model had projected, it was not looking good for those with Laird in their multis.
While Laird polled more than expected in Rounds 11, 14, and 17, it all came undone in back-to-back weeks when he failed to poll a single vote in Rounds 18 or 19.
Laird was projected to poll in both games, with his 38 disposals and one goal in Round 19 making him the top chance to poll three votes against Sydney.
Instead it was Luke Parker (29 disposals), Sam Berry (24 disposals, two goals) and Chad Warner (25 disposals, one goal) who got the votes.
Laird did receive two votes in Round 21 against West Coast, but it was too little, too late, as he finished behind Taylor Walker and Ben Keays in the 2022 vote count for Adelaide.
Adelaide's 2022 Brownlow Medal Leading Votes
- 14 votes: Taylor Walker
- 11 votes: Ben Keays
- 10 votes: Rory Laird
- 8 votes: Jordan Dawson
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide)
- Expected total votes: 18.9
- Actual total votes: 14
In one of the most shocking results of the 2022 Brownlow Medal, Karl Amon led the count for Port Adelaide, despite having a probability of 0.1% to do so.
Amon finished one vote ahead of Connor Rozee, who our projections had as 92% chance of polling the most votes for Port Adelaide.
Although he was expected to start quietly, it began looking ominous for Rozee when he received no votes in Rounds 9 and 11, despite our model ranking him as the second-best player on the ground in each game.
With 3.5 votes going missing for Rozee in those matches alone, it only got worse in Round 15, with the All-Australian polling one vote despite being projected as 66.2% chance of getting three and recording the maximum 10 coaches' votes.
Round 17 truly ended all hope, with Rozee's 79.9% three-vote probability the single highest percentage to go unrewarded with all three votes for the entire 2022 AFL Brownlow Medal count.
The midfielder finished the night in positive fashion, with three votes in Round 23, but it was not enough as Amon took out Port's 2022 count by the narrowest of margins.
Amon's night included four three-vote games in which he had a 9.0% probability or less of receiving the most votes, according to our projections, with his three in Round 14 remarkably given just a 0.1% chance.
In a special edition of The Edge, we've used predictive analytics to build some #Brownlow bets, including a five-leg multi at $8 odds.
— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) September 18, 2022
Presented by @BlueBetAu. pic.twitter.com/1NNAu6HLJK
Port Adelaide's 2022 Brownlow Medal Leading Votes
- 15 votes: Karl Amon
- 14 votes: Connor Rozee
- 13 votes: Ollie Wines
- 11 votes: Sam Powell-Pepper
- 10 votes: Travis Boak
