How the Sea Eagles' 2022 Season Looks Without Tom Trbojevic

The Manly Sea Eagles are facing the prospect of being without Tom Trbojevic for the remainder of the 2022 NRL season following his latest injury in Round 11.

A long-term injury to Trbojevic this time last year would have dropped the Sea Eagles into the bottom-four conversation. While a dangerous attacking side and top-eight certainty with the 25-year-old, the Sea Eagles' over-reliance on him made finding a competent replacement impossible.

It's a slightly different story in 2022, though.

In fact, the Sea Eagles' 2-2 record without Trbojevic this season is a better winning rate than the 3-4 record with him. He scored 28 tries and handed out 28 try assists as most of the Sea Eagles attack went through the Manly fullback in 2021. Now in 2022, Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran, in particular, are taking control and varying the way they use the ball when simply giving it to Tom isn't an option.

However, the Sea Eagles average just 19.3 points per game - ninth in the NRL. While they've learned to cope better without Trbojevic, and his absence won't put a handbrake on the side as it would have 12 months ago, the Sea Eagles season has certainly stalled. There was a world where everything went right and the Sea Eagles put themselves towards the top of the ladder and into NRL premiership contention this season. But now that the one thing that couldn’t go wrong has, their ceiling is lowered.

The 2022 NRL season has now become one about the future for the Sea Eagles. With the team currently 10th on the ladder, making the top eight is still the expectation. However, in saying that, the Stats Insider NFL Premiership Predictor model has Des Hasler's side down at 42.7% to play finals football from here. But regardless of where they finish up on the ladder, every positive and negative from here will be applied to the future and how the Sea Eagles can prepare for the return of their superstar fullback in 2023.

MORE: Predictions for this week's NRL games

What is working for the Sea Eagles this season

The developing combination between Daly Cherry-Evans and Haumole Olakau'atu is encouraging. Olakau'atu has become one of the most destructive backrowers in the competition this season, averaging 94 running metres and 4.1 tackle breaks per game. His hole-running is superb and the longer he plays beside a top-tier half in Cherry-Evans, the better the pair will link up.

Here, you can see how quickly it all happened following a fast Reuben Garrick play-the-ball in Round 7. Cherry-Evans skips out to engage the B defender and Olakau'atu follows him onto the inside shoulder of the now-isolated Matt Moylan, allowing the big man to easily stroll through.

That understanding between the two on the right edge is an area that will continue to develop into 2023.

Christian Tuipulotu is another showing encouraging signs, and would be unlucky to lose his spot on the wing when Jason Saab is fit. The 21-year-old has been excellent since being named to start in Round 5, scoring four tries, breaking 23 tackles and averaging 145 running metres per game. For Tuipulotu, it's the 145 running metres per game that is most notable. It's an area of Saab's game he really struggles with, allowing opposition teams to pick on him throughout the early rounds of 2022. Kicking to Saab on the last, his lack of power and leg drive saw Manly start their sets on the back foot. His speed put him in a position to make the most of Trbojevic's magic in 2021, but as the magic dies down in 2022, so too does Saab's impact on the game. Tuipulotu, on the other hand, starts their sets well, is strong in defence, and is a quality finisher in the corner when the Sea Eagles attack in good ball.

One positive for Manly that has come out of the Trbojevic injury is they will get to see both Tuipulotu and Saab play together this season, with Reuben Garrick's likely move to fullback to cover Trbojevic. Garrick has performed well across his four games at the back this year, averaging 165.7 running metres per game. He also showed promising signs as a ball-player.

Des Hasler trialled Dylan Walker at the back in Trbojevic's absence last year, perhaps with his ball-playing in mind. However, Walker couldn't keep up with the play. Garrick, on the other hand, gets around the field, scrambles well on his own line and is clearly developing a passing game that can cause some problems when the Sea Eagles get downhill on the edges.

Clearly, it's not all bad news for the Sea Eagles. They will continue to threaten down the right side through Cherry-Evans and Olakau'atu, while the left edge has points in it through Garrick and Tuipulotu. There is enough talent in this Manly side to get something out of this season.

The Sea Eagles' 2022 Outlook

Manly-Warringah is better prepared to play well without Trbojevic this season, but their ceiling has been drastically lowered. However, it can rise again in 2023 should a handful of young players develop and holes in the defence are covered up.

How and where Josh Schuster plays for the remainder of this season will be something to keep an eye on. He 'looks' like a great edge backrower. He's a big unit, can break tackles and is good on his feet. His years as a half make him one of the best ball-playing options in the NRL at the position already. But Schuster has made it clear he isn't interested in playing the position over the long term, which has seen Foran sign elsewhere for 2023. Will the Sea Eagles look to bring Schuster one spot further in at some point this season?

Tolutau Koula has been rushed into first grade this year but doesn't look out of place. He makes mistakes you'd expect from a 19-year-old but manages to make up for most of them in the end. Centre is a difficult position for any young player given how many decisions they need to make in defence. Still, Koula looks comfortable out there. And while we're yet to see the speedster in full flight, it's not difficult to see how dangerous he will be with the ball when the Sea Eagles start to find ways to get him more involved. His footwork is electric and his tackle-breaking ability is above what his 180cm and 88kg frame says it should be.

Overall, the right edge should be the focus for Hasler and the Sea Eagles. As Cherry-Evans and Olakau'atu improve as a weapon, opportunities will open up for Koula and Saab – quite likely the fastest centre/wing combination in the NRL – out wide.

It's not only in attack that it should be the focus, though.

Where Manly has conceded its tries in 2022:

The numbers are skewed slightly after Siosifa Talakai gave them a bath in Round 7, but 25 of the 45 tries the Sea Eagles have conceded this season have come through their right edge. It's clearly a target for the opposition attack and an area Hasler's team needs to improve throughout the remainder of this year. It again comes down to cohesion and combinations, and running out the same right edge as often as possible this season will pay dividends in the next.

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Latest 2022 NRL Crystal Ball

The Stats Insider NRL Futures model has six teams above the rest in the race for a finals spot, with the latest numbers reading like this: 

NRL 2022 Finals Probabilities

That leaves four teams currently battling it out for two remaining finals spots. As it stands, the Sea Eagles are on the outside looking in at 42.7%, down in a big way from the 66.1% chance they had before Trbojevic's injury and the Round 11 loss to the Parramatta Eels.

Not only have they just lost their fullback for a lengthy period, but the Sea Eagles face the toughest remaining draw of the four teams flirting with the bottom of the top eight, resulting in TAB pushing Manly's NRL premiership odds out to $34, and its top-eight odds to $2.50.

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The schedule may look tough, but there has been enough Trbojevic-free positives this year to remain hopeful. The potential for improvement without him is encouraging and Taniela Paseka's return for the last quarter of the season will provide Manly with a much-needed boost through the middle. 

A lot needs to go right for the Sea Eagles to reach their ceiling this season, but we were also saying that three months ago. Only now, that ceiling has dropped to a spot in the top eight where they will likely be Week 1 fodder for a top-six side. Still, successful seasons are measured on one extra game for some teams and the Sea Eagles are now one of them in 2022.