Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes Preview
Last updated: Nov 9, 2018, 11:38PM | Published: Nov 9, 2018, 7:28AM
The Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes, run last year as the Emirates Stakes, is the final feature of another fantastic Flemington carnival. Now run on the second Saturday of the carnival and intended as a back-up for Cox Plate participants, it unfortunately has not yet attracted the kind of quality that was expected given that Winx has scared away many middle-distance runners over the past few years!
With the 2000m gates at the beginning of the back straight, the start should not be so critical, especially in a field of ten, with the runners getting plenty of time to settle in their preferred spots. TRAP FOR FOOLS and DOUBT DEFYING could push across from their wide draws to give cover for BLAIR HOUSE, LATROBE, PRIZED ICON and IT’S SOMEWHAT who all have opportunities to settle nicely on pace. MICKEY BLUE EYES and EXTRA BRUT will be swooping from the back.
Usually we look to Cox Plate entrants as favoured chances, with 12 of the last 18 Mackinnon winners having ran in the Cox Plate. However, none of this year’s field were chasing Winx around the Valley this year. Nine of the last 14 winners have been five years or older, which favours BLAIR HOUSE, SHILLELAGH and IT’S SOMEWHAT. Full preview below.
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Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes
7. LATROBE (3)
Mark Zahra / Joseph O’brien
SI Rating: 99
$5 out to $5.50. With eight of the last 12 winners having been priced between $6.00 and $8.50, you may wish to play around the favourite this year, and the model has Irish raider Latrobe - who has been set for this race - just nudging out the short-priced favourite. He doesn’t know how to run a bad race! Placed in the Irish St Leger and won the Irish Derby (2400m), beating home Rostropovich (fifth in the Melbourne Cup). Two seconds from two first-up runs and could pick up a third here. 2000m looks an ideal first-up distance and he is the great value play.
3. BLAIR HOUSE (2)
William Buick / Charlie Appleby
SI Rating: 98
$2.35 into $1.95. The obvious class standout of the field and we’ve seen what he can do here. The barrier only helps to solidify his favouritism. Savaged the line from last to finish 2.1L fourth in the Underwood Stakes (1800m) before being edged out by Benbatl in the Caulfield Stakes (2000m). Benbatl, as we know, went on to challenge Winx. He actually beat Benbatl in Dubai in March. This looks much easier, but he’ll have to be good enough to break a long trend: So You Think (2010) is the only favourite to have won the Mackinnon since Lad Of The Manor in 2005.
4. TRAP FOR FOOLS (8)
John Allen / Jarrod McLean
SI Rating: 96
$11 out to $15. Two wins and a placing over the 2000. Both wins were at the Valley in open handicaps where he beat home some decent types (albeit not G1 quality). Was just nabbed on the line by Ventura Storm in the 2500m Moonee Valley Gold Cup last start and steps back down in distance. Should get an easy run on-pace or in front and will be there for a long way.
8. SHILLELAGH (6)
James McDonald / Chris Waller
SI Rating: 93
$6.50 out to $7.50. Shillelagh could be that other winner priced between 6-8.5, and with the McDonald-Waller polish, absolutely must be considered. She won the Empire Rose here over 1600m with a world-class ride from McDonald and he’ll need to produce another. She’s never been over 2000m but that win suggested it should be OK. One concern though is that she likes to get back and there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of pace in this race, so if they do amble along slowly she’ll be disadvantaged.
9. EXTRA BRUT (9)
Craig Williams / Darren Weir
SI Rating: 91
$7 out to $11. Wouldn’t be too alarmed by the drift - $7 was a very safe price after the Victoria Derby win and he’s not likely to beat Blair House home, so 11s is probably fairer. Won the Victoria Derby with a perfectly timed ride, is unbeaten at Flemington, and can fly home from back of midfield with 51kg, but he needs to step up yet again and thus I’m inclined to look elsewhere.
5. DOUBT DEFYING (10)
Michael Walker / Steven O’dea
SI Rating: 91
$21 out to $34. Down from Queensland, winning some quality/open races along the way and then charging home from seventh at the 400m to win the Sale Cup. Continues to show upside with each start but this is a huge step up. Most likely still suited to listed grade at this stage.
1. IT’S SOMEWHAT (1)
Kerryn McEvoy / James Cummings
SI Rating: 85
$19 out to $21. An honest customer but probably out of his depth here. Has gone around in G1/G2/G3 middle distance races, being somewhat thereabouts and picking up a place behind Ace High in the Hill Stakes up in Sydney. This looks too hard.
2. PRIZED ICON (5)
Damian Oliver / Kris Lees
SI Rating: 81
The best of the roughies and has a knack of popping up into a place at odds. Yet to win from six runs over the distance but rarely wins at all. The second to Cliff’s Edge in the Crystal Mile last start was encouraging. Likes Flemington (2: 1-1-0) and maps to get a good run and needs to significantly lift to win, but a nice place bet at the price.
6. OCTABELLO (7)
Noel Callow / Mick Price
SI Rating: 59
The outsider of the field here. Won the Cranbourne Cup (2000m) in October before a fair fifth in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley behind the likes of Prized Icon and Duca Valentinois. 2000m his best distance, but would need to lift very considerably.
10. MICKEY BLUE EYES (4)
Corey Brown / Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig
SI Rating: 47
Backs up from the Victoria Derby where he ran an ordinary tenth. Nice turn of foot, 2000m looks to be a more suitable distance but he’s not yet capable of winning a Group 1 in the spring.
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Stats Insider’s selections: 7-3-4-8
Aaron Murphy’s selections: 7-3-2-8
