AFL 2020 Schedule Difficulty: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Who you play, when you play them and where, are all of intense importance in the AFL.

Unlike European soccer or US pro sports, constructing the AFL’s fixture is a significantly harder proposition owing to the league’s insistence on a 23-round schedule that caters for an 18-team league. 

The mathematics are complicated further when you factor in the sheer length and breadth of Australia, making it almost impossible to keep everyone happy.

At Stats Insider we’ve tried to make fixture analysis a little easier, slicing and dicing a multitude of factors ranging from strength of opponent, rest and game location to deliver a more accurate assessment of just how difficult your club’s draw is. 

So without further ado, let’s take a spin through the AFL’s 198-game, five month slug-fest to determine what’s in store this season from a scheduling standpoint.

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While some were surprised our 2020 AFL Futures projections penned the Bulldogs as second favourites for the premiership, the relative gentle nature of their schedule was a strong factor. While the Dogs don’t have to endure repeat assignments against any of last year’s top four, they have just five interstate games all season, with nine of their last ten all scheduled within Victoria. 

We’ve assessed Melbourne as having the easiest schedule in 2020 which is great news for the Demons, not only off the back of their disastrous 2019, but because they’ll have the opportunity to build on the momentum from their encouraging, undefeated pre-season. While Melbourne does have a couple of tricky first up clashes against both West Coast in Perth, followed by GWS, just four of their final 18 games are against teams who won a final in 2019. 

Speaking of winning Finals, the Tigers have the competition’s fourth easiest schedule this season, helped along by a particularly gentle first four games with no trips interstate. The back end of their fixture is also light with none of their final six matches against a team who won a final last year.

ALSO READ: AFL Premiership Roadmap: The Richmond Blueprint

Fremantle haven’t seen September action since 2016, changed coaches in the off-season and have come to the realisation they mightn’t have the services of Jesse Hogan for the duration of the season. Thankfully, their fixture is fairly promising, especially the early portion, with their first five games all against clubs who didn’t win a final in 2019. 

While Collingwood will play both Richmond and Brisbane twice in 2020, they only have five matches outside of Victoria in 2020, with their Easter weekend clash against the Lions at the Gabba the only time they’ll travel outside Victoria until Round 8.

We’ve assessed the Giants and Gold Coast as having the most problematic fixtures in 2020. 

In the first month alone, the Giants will have clashes against two of our futures model darlings in the Geelong and the Bulldogs, while they’ve got multiple games against the likes of Richmond, Geelong and the Bulldogs throughout the season.

RELATED: Can the GWS Recover From Their Giant Grand Final Nightmare?

Despite the Eagles' considerable home ground advantage, we’ve determined their fixture as being the league’s third hardest. While their first month presents as manageable, it’s the backend of their docket which is of concern, with eight of their last 13 matches against 2019 finalists. It's their last five games however which present as genuinely brutal, travelling from Victoria back to Perth, over to Queensland, back to Perth and then finally over to Victoria again for Round 23 against the Bulldogs.

Geelong’s loss of Tim Kelly is compounded by a fixture we’ve deemed as being in the league’s most difficult four. In the first month alone the Cats have away matches against both GWS and West Coast, while they’ve a massive five of their first 13 matches outside Victoria.

ALSO READ: What the Tim Kelly Trade Means For West Coast (and Geelong)

For now, the AFL fixture looks like a tangled web of data, however within the chaos there exists the opportunity to extract some clarity from all the noise.

Be sure to check out our Schedule Difficulty throughout the 2020 AFL season as it will be updated at the conclusion of each round and upon significant injury and form fluctuations.

VIEW STATS INSIDER'S AFL 2020 SEASON SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY

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