So, What’s Going On With Geelong’s First Quarters?

There was a lot of familiarity about Geelong’s Friday night win over the Bombers. Yet another win at Kardinia Park with the Cats kicking 15 of the game’s last 19 goals. Another Patrick Dangerfield masterclass, another Tom Hawkins avalanche and another week worrying about Jeremy Cameron’s hamstring.

Yet there was also something else that’s becoming a little too familiar for Geelong and that’s their increasingly sleepy start to games.

That was the 10th occasion in their first 15 games this season where they’ve failed to surpass even just a couple of first quarter majors, only registering their first against Essendon with 8 seconds to go.

It’s also the third week in a row where they’ve been unable to produce more than a single first-term major. 

Clearly, Geelong’s lofty ladder position and buoyant premiership prospects wouldn’t suggest these first quarter sleep-ins are the biggest problem in the world, after all they started mightily well in last year’s Grand Final and look where it got them. Yet Geelong have dreamt up a dangerous habit for themselves this season, the likes of which they won't always be able to fight their way through. 

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The Cats have won just 6 first quarters this season, lost 9 and drawn one which was in their Round 14 classic against the Bulldogs. That translates to just a 43.3% first quarter win-rate which is not only eyebrow raising for a team that does so much else exceptionally well, but that number stands out like a sore thumb where recent premiers are concerned. Since 1990, there’s been just a single club who posted a sub-50% first quarter win-rate yet were still been good enough to win the whole enchilada, and that, ironically, was the Geelong team of 2011. 

To reiterate, that’s just 1 of the last 31 premiers who’ve been able to overcome their meandering first quarter ways yet still be good enough to win it all. 

And for this Geelong team it’s probably a good thing that sole winner was their 2011 forefathers as it’s that team this Cats outfit most resembles. 

That most recent Geelong premiership winning team was the league’s 4th oldest and 5th most experienced, and on Grand Final day sent out an extraordinary 12 players with at least 150 games to their name.

This season, the Cats entered as the league’s oldest and most experienced, and indeed the team they sent out against the Bombers on Friday night was easily the round’s most senior, with, you guessed it, a dozen players with at least 150 games played. 

Those 2011 Cats were slow starters, but more often than not finished like maniacs. That season, they led the league with 16 last-quarter scalps, dialling up a dizzying 170.8 percentage in the process. Furthermore, they called upon that superpower of theirs on Grand Final day where they kicked 5 goals to Collingwood’s zero in the last term to seal its third flag in five seasons.

And for the 2021 Cats, it’s a similar story as well. They’re 9-6 in last quarters, have saluted in 8 of their last 11 and recently called upon every grain of their last quarter know-how to steal a game against the Bulldogs which appeared all but over.

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Of course, in an ideal world the Cats would effortlessly jump out of bed each and every game and go full boar from the opening siren. Yet, in an ideal world the Cats would also have a more robust ruck presence, they’d never worry about Cameron’s hamstrings and every AFL venue would be Kardinia Park. 

Put simply, elite sport doesn’t take place in an ideal world, and the most genuine of contenders have to make do with what they’ve got. And in this case, Geelong opted to go to war in 2021 with a relatively geriatric squad, the likes of whom clearly aren’t so sprightly first thing in the morning, yet by the time the going gets tough, can usually be relied upon to get the job done. 

Time will tell whether this approach will be enough to win their first flag in ten years or whether these slow starts will be yet another thorn in the side of this seemingly perpetually snakebitten September team. 

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