Three weeks to go and there's plenty to play for in the NFL this season.

While both conferences have their likely playoff contenders essentially locked in, there’s still intense jockeying for playoff seedings within each conference, ensuring that when Week 17 finally arrives few teams, if any, will have the luxury of resting their starters.

As always, the Stats Insider Futures model has kept its cool amid the mayhem, sorted through all available data and has identified five teams with a better than 9% chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy come Super Bowl LIV time in Miami.

NFL PREDICTIONS: Week 15 Matchups and Projections

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Let’s take a look at the major contenders.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL WIN PROBABILITY: 29.6%

Nine wins in a row, the sport’s statistically best offense, and perhaps even the NFL MVP in Lamar Jackson; this has turned into one heck of a season for the Baltimore Ravens.

Since losing to the Cleveland Browns in Week 4, the 11-2 Ravens has torched the league, claiming the scalps of playoff-bound teams such as the Seattle Seahawks (10-3), Houston Texans (8-5), New England Patriots(10-3), San Francisco 49ers (11-2) and most recently, the Buffalo Bills (9-4).

While so much credit is justifiably apportioned to Baltimore’s exceptional offense, along with the mercurial talents of MVP candidate, Lamar Jackson, their defense has quietly emerged in recent weeks, conceding just 15.1 points per game over the nine-game winning streak, while forcing no less than 16 turnovers.

If there is a weakness on this Ravens team it may exist within its rush defense, which is ranked just #21 according to Football Outsider’s DVOA, and which has allowed at least 100 yards on the ground in five of its last seven matches.

Thankfully for the Ravens, the AFC isn’t populated by many brilliant ‘ground and pound’ teams (outside of themselves) with the Tennessee Titans - and particularly their star running back, Derrick Henry- perhaps the only outfit capable of causing any serious damage to the Ravens’ defensive front come playoff time.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL WIN PROBABILITY: 15.7%

Despite five straight seasons without playoff action, and a win total in that period only the Cleveland Browns could claim worse in, the San Francisco 49ers have this season emerged as an absolute wrecking ball, with the past weekend’s victory over the New Orleans Saints at the Super Dome confirming their NFC favouritism.

Head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has masterminded an offense which appears to be getting more dynamic by the week, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo looking fully recovered from last season’s ACL injury, brilliantly piloting a San Francisco offense which seems flush with weapons.

While George Kittle has established himself as perhaps the game’s very best tight end, recent acquisition Emmanuel Sanders has been excellent, rookie wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, has also stepped up, with his 730 all-purpose yards the second-most on the team outside of Kittle.  

Yet, despite how sharply improved the 49er’s attack has been this season, their biggest strength - and golden ticket to breaking their 25-year Super Bowl drought - lies with its defense, and particularly it’s marauding defensive line which has hurried opposition quarterbacks on 14.3% of dropbacks while producing 45 sacks which are both top three numbers in the NFL.

The 49er’s famed pass rush notwithstanding, this is a defense, which, as a whole, is giving up just 4.5 yards per play (which is the league’s best mark), while they are allowing opponents to convert on third down at just 28.9% - a number only the New England Patriots (22.6%) are faring better in.

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL WIN PROBABILITY: 12.1%

For the first time in New Orleans Saints’ history, they’ve claimed the AFC South in three consecutive seasons, while the franchise’s next task will be qualifying for back-to-back NFC Championship games which would also constitute another franchise-first.

It won’t be easy for the Saints, however, for as brave as they were in last weeks incredible 48-46 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, it was one which may have cost them home-field advantage in the playoffs, handing them a treacherous post-season path.

A massive concern for New Orleans is the state of its defense, which has not only regressed significantly this season but also taken a sharp slide in more recent weeks.

Sunday’s loss to the 49ers was one in which they gave up 516 yards of offense, conceded 25 first downs and failed to produce a single turnover. To compound matters, a foot injury to their star defensive end, Marcus Davenport, has resulted in a premature end to his season.

For the Saints to regain their place amongst the NFC favourites, it might once again come down to Drew Brees and his 40-year-old arm, which continues to operate at an elite level. Brees takes great comfort knowing he has the league’s pre-eminent wide receiver in Michael Thomas at his disposal, who this season has already recorded 1,424 receiving yards and is just 22 catches short of breaking Marvin Harrison’s all-time single-season reception mark of 143, set in 2002.

The Saints would also love an uptick in production form their star running back, Alvin Kamara, who has struggled mightily of late, recording just two touchdowns all season, having collected 31 over his first two years as a pro.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL WIN PROBABILITY: 11.2%

With three losses from its past five matches, the New England Patriots are nowhere near as dangerous as they appeared to be in the early portion of the season, where they were positively feasting on inferior opposition.

As their schedule has ramped up, the Pats simply haven’t been able to meet those lofty expectations, first eviscerated by the Baltimore Ravens 37-20 in Week Nine, with losses to both the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefsin recent weeks, the most recent ending a 21-game unbeaten streak at home.

While few doubt the sheer level of football IQ and grit which define this incredible franchise, their eight-season streak of appearing in the AFC Conference Championship is starting to look vulnerable, owing to an offense which has looked decidedly bland throughout the season.

42-year old, six-time Super Bowl champion, Tom Brady, is having one of his very worst seasons, with his numbers down significantly across the board while his playmakers - with the exception of reigning Super Bowl MVP, Julian Edelman(1,037 all-purpose yards, six touchdowns) - have looked well below average, with the likes of Sony Michel not taking flight this season. 

Experiments and reclamation projects such as Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown have also fallen short this season, which has only worked to emphasise how much future Hall of Famer, Rob Gronkowski, meant to this team.

What is keeping the Patriots relevant in 2019 has been a simply outstanding defensive unit, which is perhaps the greatest legendary coach, Bill Belichick, has ever had at his disposal. Ranked #1 where defensive DVOA is concerned, the Patriots this year have claimed 33 turnovers, while also allowing opposing QB's to complete a minuscule 56.1% of their pass attempts, which is quite easily the game’s best mark.

New England’s run home (Cincinnati, Buffalo and Miami) is gentle, and should ensure the Pats claim the AFC’s #2 seed and a first-round bye. Making their presence felt in the post-season, however, as we’ve become very much accustomed to, will have to coincide with a sharp uptake from Brady and his offense, with no evidence so far to support such an eventuality.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL WIN PROBABILITY: 9.2%

It’s been a funny old season for the Kansas City Chiefs, who entered the season among Super Bowl favourites, off the back of reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes' 50 touchdown season in 2018.

However - owing to injuries to Mahomes, coupled with the menacing form of both the Patriots and, more recently, the Ravens - the Chiefs slipped away from the public consciousness insofar as being a legitimate threat this season.

Being out of the spotlight instead seems to have greatly assisted the Chiefs, who have quietly put together a three-game winning streak, and, thanks to their recent defeat of the New England Patriots at Foxboro, have moved within a game of the Pats and a potential first-round bye.

While Mahomes doesn’t look quite like his devastating self of last season, he's still managed 21 touchdowns this season - compared to just three interceptions - while still throwing for an average of 296.9 yards per match, which is just 22 yards per game shy of what he produced last season.

He has, however, been helped greatly by a much improved Chiefs defense, which was simply abysmal last campaign but which has made massive strides this season under new defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo.

While the Kansas City rush defense remains a concern, ranking 30^th in DVOA, the pass defense has improved sharply, ranked 6^thoverall and giving up just 227.2 yards per game through the air, down from the 273.4 it was surrendering last season, which was the second-worst mark in the NFL.

If Mahomes can round into form even remotely similar to what he produced in his MVP year, and if the Chiefs defense can continue to remain accountable, then there’s a definite path for Kansas City to claim its first AFC Championship since 1969.

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