St Kilda vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2023
Last updated: May 27, 2023, 3:41AM | Published: May 22, 2023, 7:50PM
St Kilda plays Hawthorn in AFL Round 11 action at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, beginning at 1:45pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for St Kilda vs Hawthorn, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured below.
More: AFL Expert Tips for Round 11, 2023
Who Will Win: St Kilda vs Hawthorn
Based on state-of-the-art computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated Saturday's St Kilda-Hawthorn AFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Saints a 75% chance of defeating the Hawks in Round 11 of the 2023 AFL season.
More: Free Betting Guide for Saints vs Hawks
St Kilda vs Hawthorn: Odds
The current Betfair betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at Marvel Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: St Kilda $1.30, Hawthorn $4.20
- Line: St Kilda -26.5 ($2.00), Hawthorn +26.5 ($1.90)
- Total (Over/Under 155.5 Points): Over $1.75, Under $2.24
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has St Kilda to win at $1.30 and Hawthorn to win at $4.20.
The Saints are 26.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $2.00 currently available at Betfair.
For the underdog Hawks (+26.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.90.
The Over/Under for St Kilda vs Hawthorn sits at 155.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.75 and odds for the Under at $2.24.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (+26.5) have a 62% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 155.5 points has a 53% chance of going Over.
More: Best Bets for Every AFL Game
St Kilda vs Hawthorn: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $4.20 with Betfair (1.2% edge)
- Line: Hawthorn +26.5 at $1.90 with Betfair (62% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 155.5 at $2.24 with Betfair (2.0% edge)
When you see a 🔥, that means it's one of our best tips for today across all sports.
Our St Kilda vs Hawthorn best bets are based on detailed modelling and betting expertise to provide you with the best possible advice every time.
While the Saints have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our recommended option because of the 1.2% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term profitability.
Furthermore, despite the Over being more likely to hit in this game, Under 155.5 is our best bet due to the better odds ($2.24) that are available from Betfair.
St Kilda vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for St Kilda vs Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium this Saturday has St Kilda winning 87-69.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of St Kilda vs Hawthorn on Saturday, including pre-match predictions, the best betting tips, and live scores.
St Kilda vs Hawthorn: Goal Scorers
Searching for St Kilda vs Hawthorn goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, St Kilda's Max King is the most likely player to kick the first goal in St Kilda vs Hawthorn.
King has a 9.4% chance of kicking the first goal at Marvel Stadium, while the Saints star has a 92.6% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
St Kilda
- Max King: 9.4% probability
- Jack Higgins: 7.1% probability
- Anthony Caminiti: 5.9% probability
- Jade Gresham: 5.7% probability
- Dan Butler: 5.1% probability
Hawthorn
- Mitch Lewis: 5.9% probability
- Luke Breust: 4.9% probability
- Jacob Koschitzke: 3.7% probability
- Tyler Brockman: 3.6% probability
- Dylan Moore: 3.2% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
St Kilda
- Max King: 92.6% probability
- Jack Higgins: 86.0% probability
- Anthony Caminiti: 79.6% probability
- Jade Gresham: 77.2% probability
- Dan Butler: 74.7% probability
Hawthorn
- Mitch Lewis: 80.9% probability
- Luke Breust: 74.8% probability
- Tyler Brockman: 61.4% probability
- Jacob Koschitzke: 61.4% probability
- Dylan Moore: 54.6% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the St Kilda vs Hawthorn game at Marvel Stadium.
As always, check out our Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2023
St Kilda vs Hawthorn: Preview
The AFL Round 11 clash between the Saints and Hawks at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:45pm AEST on Saturday.
- Game: St Kilda vs Hawthorn
- Date: Saturday 27 May 2023
- Time: 1:45pm AEST
- Venue: Marvel Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
Our predictions for St Kilda vs Hawthorn have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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