The 2020 State of Origin series kicks off in Adelaide as the New South Wales Blues look to continue their own dynasty by beating the Queensland Maroons for a third consecutive year.

With eight debutants running out for Game 1, the Maroons are heavy underdogs. Wayne Bennett will need to pull off something special if he's to inspire this group to an unlikely victory.

While the general consensus is for the Blues to win the series with what is a far superior squad on paper, some areas of the field are closer than many give the Maroons credit. They will compete in the middle and have a halves pairing that can create points behind it. Should they do the hard yards and keep the ball away from a dangerous Blues backline, we may have an upset on our hands.

Fullbacks:

AJ Brimson
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James Tedesco

AJ Brimson finished the 2020 NRL season as one of the in-form fullbacks. His return to the Titans in Round 12 almost single-handedly turned their fortunes around for the cellar dwellers to win six of their last nine games. He plays a similar style to his counterpart in this series, James Tedesco.

Both perform their best work in broken play. Sniffing around the shoulders of big middle forwards, Brinson and Tedesco are excellent in support and always ready to pounce on half-chances anywhere on the field. In shape, neither are elite ball-players at this stage but both can draw attention out the back of a ranging shift and get the ball wide in an instant. 

Brimson has proven that he can play a significant role in a promising attack and certainly won't let Wayne Bennett down on debut in Game 1. However, what Brimson can do, Tedesco can do better.

Wingers:

Xavier Coates & Phillip Sami
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Daniel Tupou & Josh Addo-Carr

A Daniel Tupou and Josh Addo-Carr wing pairing might be the best in rugby league at the moment. Perfect complements to each other, Tupou is an elite aerial threat and strong finisher in the corner. Meanwhile, Addo-Carr is the quickest man in footy and can break a defensive line open from anywhere on the field. Excellent in yardage, the pair combined for 310 running metres per game for their respective clubs in 2020. Addo-Carr has another gear in him when it's necessary and will quite likely bump his 129 metres per game for the Storm up closer to the 155 metres he averaged for the Blues in the last series.

Xavier Coates and Phillip Sami both make their Origin debuts in this one. Coates steps out onto the Origin stage with just 15 games of first-grade experience, 12 of which came in a horror 2020 campaign. The 19-year-old has offered glimpses of his talent in limited opportunities this year, but they haven't come without a few moments you'd expect from a young player still learning the game. While 23-years-old, Phillip Sami has only recently cracked 50 first-grade games and carries plenty of questions defensively into this one. He recorded the most try causes (16) for the Titans in 2020 despite only playing 13 games. 

We've got two of the best wingers in the world against two debutants coming off tough seasons in struggling club sides. The Blues have a significant advantage out wide. 

Centres:

Brenko Lee & Dane Gagai
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Clint Gutherson & Jack Wighton

Brenko Lee is one of the great stories in rugby league this year. Punted from a Gold Coast Titans side that will go down as one of the worst in the NRL era in 2019, he's won a premiership with the Melbourne Storm in 2020 and is now preparing to make his Origin debut. It's the changes to his game in defence and willingness to fall into a fairly low key role that has allowed him to get his career back on track. His ability to offload is still there but it's the new-found reliability that makes him a promising fit for the Queensland centres. Likewise, Dane Gagai. An Origin specialist on the wing, he finished the year in the centres for South Sydney in what is arguably a career-best season for the 29-year-old. 

Clint Gutherson thrived at fullback throughout 2020, and with Brad Fittler having success with this sort of move in the past, has put the Eels captain into the centres for Game 1. It's one of the few holes in the Blues side that the Maroons know they can target. Gutherson's best attributes - support play, ball-playing out the back of shape and his overall high-involvement rate - aren't utilised in the centres. Jack Wighton, on the other hand, shouldn't have a problem moving out from five-eighth to centre. He's a strong ball-carrier and will be offered plenty of opportunities to run the ball on the edge. His rushing defensive tendencies could also work well further out in the defensive line too.

Name recognition and form in 2020 give the Blues an advantage in the centres coming in, but it's closer than many give the Maroons credit.

Halves: 

Cameron Munster & Daly Cherry-Evans
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Luke Keary & Nathan Cleary

Provided Cameron Munster recovers from his premiership celebrations with the Storm in time for Wednesday night, he pairs with Daly Cherry-Evans in the halves. It's an area that will make or break Queensland's chances. The duo need to be two of the best players on the field if the Maroons are to cause an upset. They're an excellent pairing on paper; Munster provides the flare on both sides of the field while Cherry-Evans steers the team around the field and into attacking positions. However, like at fullback, what Munster and Cherry-Evans can do, Luke Keary and Nathan Cleary can do better.

Keary is the best five-eighth in rugby league and won't be phased by making his Origin debut in Game 1. He's played in enough big games to have an impact from the start in this one. With 10 tries and 18 try assists throughout the 2020 club season, the prospect of Keary linking up with Wighton and Addo-Carr on short side raids will send shivers down the spines of the Maroons defence. Meanwhile, it's Cleary that is likely to move the Blues around the field. He led all halves in touches with 71.1 per game on his way to the Grand Final. Forget the poor pass he threw ten days before Game 1, Cleary is the best number seven in the game right now and one error doesn't take away a season which saw him capped as Stats Insider's Player of the Year in the Team of the Season for 2020.

Again, advantage Blues.

Hooker: 

Jake Friend
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Damien Cook

Jake Friend has waited a long time for this moment, but finally, he will run out for his Origin debut. Injuries and being stuck behind the greatest hooker of all time has delayed the 30-year-old pulling a Maroon jersey over his head.

He's not going to offer the attacking flare of his opposite. Friend simply doesn't have the running game to compete with Damien Cook in that department. Where Friend will make his mark is through his reliability in middle defence. It's a key area for Queensland to contain New South Wales and we can expect Friend to surpass his season-average of 44 tackles per game in this one. 

We already know what Cook can do in the Origin arena...

While Friend is a reliable selection for Wayne Bennett and has beaten out Ben Hunt and Harry Grant - two far superior attacking players than Friend - it's a no-contest at hooker in Game 1. 

Props:

Christian Welch & Josh Papalii
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Daniel Saifiti & Junior Paulo

It's here that the Maroons can start to feel confident. 

Christian Welch's work rate is ideal for a long Origin shift while his ball-playing in the middle of the field will open things up out wide. His passing was an underappreciated aspect to Melbourne's wide-ranging attack in 2020. His 3.5 passes per game ranked 8th among all props (min. 10 games) and was trending upward the longer the season went. His pairing with Josh Papalii is ideal.

A destructive ball-runner and widely regarded as the best prop in the world, the 28-year-old comes into his eighth Origin series in arguably career-best form. Averaging a career-high 148 running metres along with 2.1 tackle breaks and an offload, Papalii gives Queensland plenty of punch through the middle. His career-high 30 tackles per game also came at a 96% tackle efficiency in 2020. 

Fittler saw something in Saifiti before the 2019 series. Every metric said he wasn't ready to step into Origin. He didn't play particularly well across his two games in 2019 either. However, Saifiti has well and truly justified his place this year following an excellent 2020 season. Adding 50 metres per game to his 2019 average for a career-high 144 running metres per game this year, Saifiti has taken the next step in his career. So too has Junior Paulo who has stood out in an Eels pack as one of their best ball-carriers, and like Welch, a key component to their attack. 

It's easy to imagine Paulo playing a part in a Keary short side raid: Paulo engages the line to put Boyd Cordner one-on-one with Cleary. With a quick play-the-ball and the defence scrambling, Keary skips around the ruck with Tedesco, Wighton and Tupou in support. Stop that, Queensland.

While Paulo's inclusion is exciting, the Maroons have the slightest edge at prop given Welch's reliability and Papalii's experience and recent dominance.

Backrow:

Felise Kaufusi & Coen Hess
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Boyd Cordner and Tyson Frizell

No, that isn't a typo. Coen Hess has been named to start in Game 1 of the 2020 State of Origin series. The man himself didn't have Origin on his radar following a poor club season that ended to injury in Round 16. A shadow of the player that featured in five games across the 2017 and 2018 series', Hess has been given a lifeline by Wayne Bennett. Thankfully, the Maroons have one of the most consistent Origin performers in Felise Kaufusi on the other side of the field. 

While Boyd Cordner hasn't played his best footy this season, the extra rest following the Sydney Roosters' early exit from the NRL will serve him well. It had better do, anyway. Papalii made it look too easy when beating Cordner to score in Week 2 of the finals.

Tyson Frizell is in a similar position. He wasn't his best for the Red V in 2020 and will need to improve if he's to stave off the competition for his sky blue #12 jersey.

Like the centre position, the Blues have the assumed advantage here but it may end up closer than many expect. A lot comes down to Bennett inspiring a change in Hess' form.

Lock:

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
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Jake Trbojevic

The battle of the two lock forwards is one of the most interesting on the field.

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui is a 197cm and 107kg man mountain at 20-years-old. Given those measurements came before the season kicked off, there is a good chance he's grown further still. Fa'asuamaleaui is light on his feet and challenges the defence at the line with late footwork. Spending much of his time coming off the bench and running at tiring defences, he averaged 125 running metres per game for Melbourne.

Meanwhile, Jake Trbojevic completed a somewhat quiet year for Manly. Solid but not spectacular, Trbojevic did what he could within a struggling side. As the trends see running metres rise across the competition, the 26-year-old's 117 running metres per game is his lowest mark since 2016. That came as a result of his increase in ball-playing with the 27.6 touches and 16.1 passes per game both career-highs.

Now in a side where he can pick his moments to handle the ball and offer more as a ball-carrier, expect to see Trbojevic return to his best and win this head-to-head battle.

Bench:

Ben Hunt, Lindsay Collins, Jai Arrow & Jaydn Su'A
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Cody Walker, Payne Haas, Cameron Murray & Angus Crichton

While the Blues have claimed the advantage in most positions up to this point, it's the bench where they really pull away from the Maroons. It's a straight-sets advantage from 14 to 17.

Ben Hunt has a more defined role in the Queensland side but Cody Walker's form is unquestionably superior.

Lindsay Collins has played the best football of his career for the Roosters in 2020 but Payne Hass is the best young forward in rugby league and makes for a scary proposition while playing fewer minutes off the bench.

Jai Arrow is experienced in the Origin arena. He may yet start the game depending on how Bennett chooses to line his 17 up on game day. However, if you're picking between Arrow and Cameron Murray in 2020, it's the South Sydney forward that comes out on top. His versatility is the perfect fit for this Blues pack.

While Angus Crichton has moved in and out of the Roosters starting 13, he's managed to reclaim his reputation as one of the best edge backrowers in the competition. Jaydn Su'A's rise is impressive an unexpected; he has finally started to live up to his potential on both sides of the ball. Crichton is the most reliable of the two at this point, though.

The superior Blues bench could be where it comes apart for the Maroons.

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