What NSW need to do to win Game 2 was the topic at this point of the 2020 State of Origin series. They'd just dropped Game 1 to what was considered the worst Queensland team ever and needed a lift. While New South Wales did bounce back to win 34-10, we all know what happened in Game 3.

The tables have turned for the 2021 series.

Queensland are 1-0 down and face a series-deciding Game 2 at their fortress, Suncorp Stadium. They weren't expected to win the opener, but few picked a 44-point thrashing either. At the very least, they need to keep this one close to avoid embarrassment. 

Paul Green is going old-school in his approach to level the series. It's hardly a surprise given his history as a first-grade NRL coach. However, with the side he has at his disposal, and the star-studded opposition in front of him, turning back the clock and designing a simple game plan is the best way forward.

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Matching Up In The Middle

It's the obvious starting point for the Maroons and one that has been talked about all week.

Josh Papalii's return is a massive boost, while a healthy Christian Welch will undoubtedly improve the defence after he managed just 12 minutes in Game 1. The makeup of the bench is a lot more encouraging too. Moeaki Fotuaika is a top tier middle that still flies under the radar while Francis Molo is a significant upgrade over Joe Ofahengaue. 

Add Jai Arrow and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and the Maroons have six players that can be rotated through the three middle positions across the full 80 minutes. Provided injuries don't strike, Green can run his starting props out for the opening 25-30 minutes before sending Fotuaika and Molo - two efficient ball-carriers - onto the field either side of halftime.

Arrow can move into the middle for Fa'asuamaleaui to make way for David Fifita on the edge, adding another high work rate middle to the mix against what they hope will be a tiring Blues defence late in the first half.

The Maroons ran for just 31.5 metres per set to the Blues' 46 metres per set in Game 1. They didn't give themselves a chance to strike and build pressure. If we look back to Game 3 of the 2020 series, the Maroons ran for 39 metres per set to the Blues' 32.4 metres. They hung in the game for long enough to allow the likes of Cameron Munster and Harry Grant to produce moments of magic.

That is the blueprint for success in this one.

Queensland sent out the prop pair most likely to come out on top in Game 1. With Papalii and Welch up against Junior Paulo and Daniel Saifiti, that looks to be the case again. If the Queensland duo can remain on the field through the opening exchanges and put New South Wales under some pressure, we can start to consider a possible upset.

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Defencing the centre-third

Most of the talk around water coolers this week has been around the expected improvement of Queensland's middle. However, an improvement in yardage and metres per set is for nothing if they can't fix up their defence.

Points and blowouts are trending upward in the NRL, so seeing 50 points on the scoreboard is hardly a surprise at the moment. But blowouts in the NRL are attributed to "bad teams" and "poor roster management."

This is the pinnacle of rugby league and a fixture played out by the best of the best regardless of injuries and suspensions. Points aren't meant to be that easy to come by in Origin.

It can't happen again if Queensland is to be any chance at sending this series to a decider. They're not going to beat New South Wales in a shootout. Clogging up the middle and turning this game into a grind, forcing the Blues out wide with the ball, is the Maroons recipe for success. 

They were beaten too often in contact last time out. Two-man tackles and nobody around the legs allowed the Blues to get a quick play-the-ball away and work upfield with ease. It's basic, but winning the contact and doing everything they can - which will include giving away the odd six-again restart - to slow the Blues down in the middle is key to a potential upset.

From there, Queensland must fix up their defence down the short side. 

There was a moment in Game 1 where it looked as though the Maroons could wrestle some control. They weathered an early storm and started to force the Blues into their own end. They won the first three tackles of this set before their short side defence allowed Latrell Mitchell to streak down the sideline. New South Wales scored two minutes later, and that's all she wrote for Queensland's list of Game 1 positives.

And that's a short side Queensland had covered for numbers. Too often they were caught short and it made for an easy passage up the field. 

Trbojevic floating around from right centre will have thrown a lot of Queensland's defensive structures into disarray. We saw it early on as Trbojevic floated around the ruck on 1st-tackle before plugging in down the short side for the 2nd. Just like that, the Blues have a five-on-three overlap which they turn into 25 metres with ease. A Damien Cook dart inside a scrambling Daly Cherry-Evans is another route they could have taken up the field in this instance.

Tracking Trbojevic is an adjustment they need to make and again centres around the need to force the Blues to go around them. If he moves from the right to the left, Queensland needs to flip a defender and have them fill in the openside. Simply marking up to their man won't work when Trbojevic has a licence to roam. 

Queensland won't concede 50 points again. They were ambushed in the opener and injuries threw another spanner into the works early on. This squad is better on paper and you'd hope is better prepared for a New South Wales game plan that is likely to be very similar to Game 1.

However, if the Blues find success down the short side early again in this one, the Maroons will struggle to keep up on the scoreboard given their issues in attack.

Game 2 Odds

The Stats Insider Model puts New South Wales all the way out at 80% in the head-to-head market.

The usual "Queensland are more dangerous after they’ve lost" commentary has been around all week, and while somewhat valid, it doesn't feel quite right about this group. Keeping it close feels like the best possible result given the injury issues and downgrade in coach from last year.

While the series looks to be decided the Model is leaning slightly towards the Maroons and their +14.5 line. It's not close by State of Origin standards, but it would make for a big improvement on Game 1.

Regardless of allegiances, a close game will make for the best entertainment. The Blues faithful have had their thrashing but everybody enjoys an even contest. We're relying on the Maroons to get into the arm-wrestle through the middle and fix up their short side defence if it is to happen.

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