State of Origin 2022: Do the NSW Blues Have the Edge Again?

The 2022 NRL season is of course still flying, but it's all about the 2022 State of Origin in the coming weeks.

New South Wales bounced back from its shock series loss in 2020 to wrap it up in two games in 2021, and while Queensland did well to respond to the 76-6 combined scoreline across Games 1 and 2 to win Game 3, the Maroons were thoroughly outclassed overall.

However, it looks to be a different story in 2022, with the teams closer together on paper and the Maroons introducing a legendary coaching staff to the mix. 

DATA: State of Origin Game 1 Predictions

State of Origin Game 1 Odds

Odds via TAB correct at time of publishing.

State of Origin Game 1 Fullbacks

James Tedesco vs Kalyn Ponga

There was a moment in the season when James Tedesco's position as New South Wales' #1 came into question, but even without an injury to Ryan Papenhuyzen, it was always unlikely he would lose his spot. Particularly with the form Tedesco has been in over the last month. The Roosters are getting back to their best and Tedesco has been at the forefront.

Meanwhile, Kalyn Ponga hasn't been quite so lucky playing within a poor Knights side. His role has changed slightly and the turnover of players in the halves hasn't helped him. But overall, Ponga is in somewhat of a poor patch relative to the rest of his career.

It feels as though Ponga has been in the Origin arena for years. He made his debut back in 2018 but will run out for only this 5th game for the Maroons in this one.

Ponga is a class act and has the ability to create something out of nothing when the Maroons need it most, but when you put him up against the form and experience of Tedesco, it's advantage Blues at the back.

State of Origin Game 1 Wingers

Brian To'o & Daniel Tupou vs Selwyn Cobbo & Xavier Coates

NSW coach Brad Fittler made the shock decision to drop Josh Addo-Carr for Game 1, picking his side based on what he thinks the Maroons might do. This is an interesting decision to say the least.

In saying that, Daniel Tupou certainly deserves his spot. He is one of the best wingers in the game right now and his 166 running metres per game pairs well with Brian To'o and his 172 running metres per game. The Blues will be effective in yardage all the way up the field while both are also expert finishers in the corner. 

For the Maroons, they've opted for a twin towers approach. Two young wingers with little experience but plenty of height will be a target on 5th tackle whenever the Maroons enter good ball.

While the Maroons have an advantage in the air, they're running the risk of playing two inexperienced wingers, both of which have struggled at times on the defensive end.

To'o and Tupou are two of the best and most consistent players in the competition right now. Xavier Coates and Selwyn Cobbo, on the other hand, haven't developed that consistency to their game just yet. Both sides can light up the scoreboard through their wingers, but the Blues have the more trustworthy pair heading into Game 1.

State of Origin Game 1 Centres

Kotoni Staggs & Jack Wighton vs Valentine Holmes & Dane Gagai

Injuries to Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell forced Fittler into selecting genuine centres for this one. At least, that's what most thought would happen. Stephen Crichton is the form centre of the competition, Kotoni Staggs has made significant improvements defensively, Campbell Graham has been part of the camp before and is in good form this season, and Zac Lomax seems destined for Origin one day.

So what does Fittler do? 

Puts a five-eighth – and an ideal bench utility – into the centres, of course.

Jack Wighton is in good form but has been exposed in the centres defensively before. He's an active defender and that can get him in trouble out wide. He's likely to be a target for Queensland coach Billy Slater and the Maroons early on in the series.

Valentine Holmes has been outstanding out wide for the Cowboys this year. He left no question over who would partner Dane Gagai in the centres for this one and it's an area the Maroons should see as an advantage. 

Both are proven performers at Origin level. Gagai, in particular, is one of the best performers in Origin history. Strong defensively, decent in yardage and capable of throwing the last pass or getting over the line in good ball, the Maroons are well equipped out wide for this one. The experience of their centres should help negate some of the defensive concerns around their young wingers, too.

MORE: NRL Round 13 Predictions

State of Origin Game 1 Halves

Jarome Luai & Nathan Cleary vs Cameron Munster & Daly Cherry-Evans

While Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans have developed a decent combination over the years, nothing compares to that of Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary.

The pair work in concert for the Panthers and it's a large reason behind their dominance. Every player knows where to be and when because the halves know how to form the shape around them. Add Isaah Yeo as another ball player and the Blues are an incredibly cohesive unit at this level.

Munster is often the catalyst to Queensland's best performances. He's a match-winner on his own and has played well to start the year. The Storm five-eighth will command the Maroons' left edge but it won't be a shock to see him pop up on both sides of the field with Kalyn Ponga available to slot in down the left side when Munster fans right. Cherry-Evans, on the other hand, is likely to play a fairly traditional #7 role given the attacking talent that surrounds him in this squad.

It's difficult to split the halves pairings. In Munster and Cleary, you've got two of the most influential players in the game while Cherry-Evans and Luai pose as capable partners. The cohesion element gives the Blues a slight advantage in this spot.

State of Origin Game 1 Middle Forwards

Payne Haas, Junior Paulo & Isaah Yeo vs Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Josh Papalii & Reuben Cotter

State of Origin starts in the middle. From the opening whistle and into the early grind, it's the big bodies in the centre-third that set the tone for the match.

In Payne Haas, the Blues have the best prop in the game. His work rate is second to none and he will more than likely lead this game in runs and running metres. Junior Paulo is the best ball playing prop in rugby league. A bloke his size shouldn't be able to move the ball quite like he does. And to top it off, the Blues are sending out the best lock forward in the world right now, with Isaah Yeo doing it all for the Panthers in 2022. And considering the Panthers-heavy contingent in this one, he's likely to play a similar on-ball role for the Blues. The combination with Cleary and Luai is an understated element of New South Wales' strengths. 

NRL 2022 Middle Forwards Stats Per Game

On the other side, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui has become one of the more underrated players in the NRL. Hidden away on the Gold Coast and playing in a losing side, he has become somewhat of a forgotten man in the discussions around the top-tier middles. A lot of his best work doesn't show in the stats pages; working hard from the inside in defence, kick pressure, tough carries.

Josh Papalii has been there and done it all 20 times before. He's consistent in yardage and is throwing offloads at a career-high rate for the Raiders in 2022.

Reuben Cotter is one of the more interesting selections on either side. His move into the Cowboys' middle shot him into Origin contention. A hooker by trade, he is prepared to do the dirty work despite his smaller stature and offers a ball playing role through the middle of the field. His quick play-the-balls on 4th tackle are likely to be a trigger for some Munster magic on the left.

The Maroons middle is stacked, but the Blues are boasting arguably the three best players in their roles. No prop is better in yardage than Haas, no prop moves the ball better than Paulo, and no lock has the footy IQ and execution of Yeo. Advantage Blues.

State of Origin Game 1 Edge Forwards

Cameron Murray & Tariq Sims vs Kurt Capewell & Felise Kaufusi

There is only one lock forward alongside Cameron Murray as the best in the game and that is Isaah Yeo. As a result, Murray has been pushed out to the edge where he has found success in the past. At the very least, he's an elite defender that will apply pressure and make the correct reads as the Maroons sweep wide. Tariq Sims on the other hand won't make too many Top 10 Edge Backrower lists at the moment. In this side based on past performances and as he is one of Freddy's favourites, Sims could end up a target for the opposition.

Kurt Capewell's versatility is valuable in Origin. Capewell will have been one of Slater's first picked on the edge but is an option to throw into the centres if required. Felise Kaufusi seems to have free passage into the Maroons side every year. Not particularly flashy, Kaufusi is one Slater can trust in his first series in charge.

Murray is the x-factor player on the edge from kickoff, but on balance, Queensland have a slight advantage amongst the edge forwards given the uncertainty around Sims and his influence on the game. 

State of Origin Game 1 Bench

Stephen Crichton, Liam Martin, Reagan Campbell-Gillard & Ryan Matterson vs Harry Grant, Lindsay Collins, Patrick Carrigan & Jeremiah Nanai

Fittler and Slater have taken different approaches to their utilities but otherwise have named fairly similar benches for Game 1 of the 2022 State of Origin.

Stephen Crichton is a surprise pick in the 14 jersey but can cover any position in the backline. Whilst Harry Grant is the best hooker in the game and more than capable of starting, it looks as though Slater is looking for him to make an impact later in the game running at tired forwards.

Liam Martin and Lindsay Collins occupy the firebrand portion of the respective benches, with both having filled the role of impact forward off the bench in the past. They also both come into this game in top form.

Reagan Campbell-Gillard is playing the best football of his career and is capable of playing big minutes off the bench if required; as is Patrick Carrigan. Both are strong in yardage, able to play big minutes, and offer enough of a passing game to trouble the defence.

Making their State of Origin debut, Ryan Matterson and Jeremiah Nanai wrap up the benches. Matterson is in superb form for the Eels. Whether it be on the edge, in the middle, starting or off the bench, Matterson is getting the team up the field both as a ball carrier and ball player. Meanwhile, Nanai has burst onto the scene this year as a try-scoring backrower for the Cowboys. Nanai doesn't offer the same versatility or experience as Matterson and may go unused depending on the game state. 

Having a bench that can handle whatever the game throws at you is crucial in State of Origin. The Blues cover just a little bit more with the four they have named.

The Blues take on the Maroons in Game 1 at the Accor Stadium on Wednesday, June 8, 2022.

NSW State of Origin Team 2022

• Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Parramatta Eels)
• Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
• Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
• Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers)
• Tyson Frizell (Newcastle Knights)
• Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)
• Nicho Hynes (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks)
• Apisai Koroisau (Penrith Panthers)
• Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)
• Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels)
• Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)
• Ryan Matterson (Parramatta Eels)
• Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
• Jacob Saifiti (Newcastle Knights)
• Tariq Sims (St George Illawarra Dragons)
• Kotoni Staggs (Brisbane Broncos)
• Joseph Suaalii (Sydney Roosters)
• James Tedesco (c) (Sydney Roosters)
• Brian To’o (Penrith Panthers)
• Daniel Tupou (Sydney Roosters)
• Jack Wighton (Canberra Raiders)
• Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)

QLD State of Origin Team 2022

• Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Parramatta Eels)
• Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
• Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
• Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers)
• Tyson Frizell (Newcastle Knights)
• Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)
• Nicho Hynes (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks)
• Apisai Koroisau (Penrith Panthers)
• Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)
• Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels)
• Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)
• Ryan Matterson (Parramatta Eels)
• Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
• Jacob Saifiti (Newcastle Knights)
• Tariq Sims (St George Illawarra Dragons)
• Kotoni Staggs (Brisbane Broncos)
• Joseph Suaalii (Sydney Roosters)
• James Tedesco (c) (Sydney Roosters)
• Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers)
• Daniel Tupou (Sydney Roosters)
• Jack Wighton (Canberra Raiders)
• Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)