State of Origin 2023 Game 1: NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons
Last updated: May 31, 2023, 4:07AM | Published: May 26, 2023, 2:50AM
One of Australia's fiercest rivalries is set to reignite as New South Wales and Queensland renew hostilities in State of Origin 2023.
Game 1 of State of Origin 2023 is being played on the neutral territory of Adelaide Oval in South Australia on Wednesday, May 31.
After simulating Game 1 of State of Origin 2023 10,000 times, Stats Insider's rugby league model gives NSW a higher win probability compared to Queensland.
MORE: State of Origin 2023 Predictions
NSW vs QLD Game 1 Overview
Getting off to the perfect start will be vital heading into State of Origin 2023.
Dating back to 2018, only once has the team that won Game 1 of State of Origin gone on to lose the series, highlighting the importance of getting off to an ideal start.
In 2023, State of Origin's opening match will be played at the neutral venue of Adelaide Oval in South Australia, giving neither side the home-ground advantage to start the series.
Stats Insider's NRL expert believes getting off to a winning start is vital in Origin 2023, with both teams getting the opportunity to play in front of their home crowds following Game 1.
"A win at a neutral venue means the winning team only needs a victory at home to win the series and avoids having to snatch a result from behind enemy lines," he said.
"The bookmakers have New South Wales as the betting favourites heading into the opener in Adelaide, and after simulating the game 10,000 times, our Origin model gives the Blues a higher winning probability. Our futures model also has the Blues as favourites to take home the series.
"But with Game 2 being played in Brisbane, a win for Queensland could really shake up State of Origin 2023, making a good start all the more important."
MORE: State of Origin 2023 News
State Of Origin 2023 Series Winner: NSW vs Queensland
After simulating State of Origin 2023 10,000 times, our rugby league model has delivered its verdict on how the NSW vs Queensland series will play out.
Our rugby league predictive model gives the Blues a 61.6% probability of winning State of Origin 2023, with Queensland given a 38.4% winning chance.
Stats Insider's rugby league predictive model has also delivered series correct score probabilities ahead of State of Origin 2023.
The most probable State of Origin result for the series result is NSW 2-1, with our predictive model giving it a 41.5% probability of occurring. Queensland winning the series 2-1 is the next most likely correct State of Origin score at 29.8%.
| Series Correct Score | Probability | Betting Odds |
| NSW 2-1 | 41.5% | $2.30 |
| Queensland 2-1 | 29.8% | $2.85 |
| NSW 3-0 | 20.1% | $4.60 |
| Queensland 3-0 | 8.5% | $8.50 |
All probabilities and odds are correct at the time of publication.
Blues vs Maroons Game 1: Key Players to Look Out For
A pair of debuting stars are the key players to look out for heading into State of Origin 2023 Game 1, while two representative mainstays are sure to steady the ship when the pressure comes.
Let's take a look at the key players to look out for heading into State of Origin 2023 Game 1.
Origin 2023: NSW Blues
Reigning Dally M Medallist Nicho Hynes makes his NSW debut in State of Origin 2023. Hynes is one of the most dynamic players in the NRL, and while he's been selected on the bench by Brad Fittler, he'll no doubt be a key player to look out for once he gets his opportunity.
NSW fullback James Tedesco is one of the most accomplished players in the NRL and in Game 1 will be lining up for his 20th straight game as a Blue. While his club form isn't to the standard we've normally come to expect, Tedesco is still one of the best players in rugby league and is a key player to look out for.
MORE: Queensland vs NSW Position Breakdown
Origin 2023: Queensland Maroons
Brisbane Broncos fullback Reece Walsh's Queensland selection surprised many given Newcastle's Kalyn Ponga has been a State of Origin stalwart in recent years, but Walsh's numbers are those of a Queensland star.
With four tries, 13 try assists, and eight linebreaks, Walsh is going to be one of the key players to look out for for the Queensland Maroons.
On the other end of the experience spectrum is Queensland star Cameron Munster, who will be a key player for the Maroons. Munster is a class act who raises the standard of the players around him and is consistently among Queensland's best players every State of Origin series. The 28-year-old is one of the most experienced for the Maroons coming into State of Origin 2023 and he will be one of the key players to watch when Game 1 rolls around.
MORE: State of Origin 2023 Game 1
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