State of Origin 2023: Queensland vs NSW Position Breakdown

While the 2023 NRL season has been one of the best in recent memory, it takes a backseat over the next six weeks as State of Origin takes centre stage in the rugby league world.

Game 1 is just around the corner, and while the New South Wales Blues are favourites to win the series, the Queensland Maroons hold an advantage in a handful of key areas.

MORE: State of Origin 2023 Game 1 Prediction

Origin 2023: Fullbacks

Reece Walsh (QLD) vs James Tedesco (NSW)

As good as he is playing for the Broncos this season, Reece Walsh's Queensland selection still comes as a surprise given how well Kalyn Ponga performed for the Maroons last year and the upward trajectory of his form at NRL level. Nonetheless, Walsh's numbers justify his place at the back.

With four tries, 13 try assists, and eight linebreaks, Walsh is one of the best attacking players in the game, as evidenced by his two-try effort against the Dragons in Round 3. When the Brisbane Broncos are getting downhill and playing him into space on the edges, opposition defences struggle to contain his speed and ability to break the line himself or pass a teammate through it. He's reliable under the high ball and improving defensively. However, it's the downhill running that is a concern. If the game is a typical Origin grind with the majority played in the middle third of the field, Walsh might struggle to have a significant impact.

James Tedesco should play a pivotal role in how the Blues attack all the way up the field.

His form at club level is not up to his high standard. The 170 metres per game he is averaging this season is his lowest mark since 2016 when playing for the Tigers. However, like other players in the competition, there is an Origin version of a player that always turns up. Tedesco ran for 281 metres per game in the 2022 series. Whether it be around the ruck through the middle or as a ball player on the edges in good ball, Tedesco can play a role for the Blues all the way up the field. Advantage Blues.

Origin 2023: Wingers

Selwyn Cobbo & Murray Taulagi (QLD) vs Brian To'o & Josh Addo-Carr (NSW)

Still only 20 years old, Selwyn Cobbo is lining up for his second series and fourth State of Origin appearance in Game 1. Strong in yardage and an elite finisher, Cobbo is close to the ideal winger at this level. What holds him back is the potential for errors. Cobbo has scored nine tries and averages 163 metres per game for the Broncos, but he leads the NRL in errors with 22 in 12 games. He's sure to be a target for the Blues on the night. Meanwhile, Murray Taulagi is somewhat struggling in a regularly beaten Cowboys side. With an opportunity to play on the end of a top-shelf backline, it's important he rises to the level of his team from the opening whistle.

Brian To'o and Josh Addo-Carr are back together. Brad Fittler talks himself into and out of decisions sometimes. Dropping Addo-Carr last year is one that got into his head. However, thanks to a strong start to the season and an impressive return from injury against the Titans in Round 12, Addo-Carr is back out there for the Blues in this one. To'o needs no introduction at this level. Averaging over 200 metres per game in both series he has featured in so far in his career, To'o will ensure New South Wales starts their sets welland gives them the advantage at the position.

Origin 2023: Centres

Valentine Holmes & Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD) vs Latrell Mitchell & Tom Trbojevic (NSW)

We've got three fullbacks and a former fullback in the centres for State of Origin Game 1.

Valentine Holmes made the move to the front line last season and has been one of the best at the position since. He's lethal with the ball and has come along leaps and bounds with his decision-making in defence.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has featured in the centres at Origin level before (2021) but has made a name for himself at fullback this season. There is little question that his speed and ballplaying can stress the defensive line. It's how he copes defensively that is the concern.

Tabuai-Fidow will come up against Latrell Mitchell. He might not play at centre any more, but if he did, Mitchell would be considered the best in the world at the position. Plenty will point to his perceived low work rate to downplay his value as a fullback, but that isn't an issue in this match. Mitchell might only touch the ball nine or 10 times throughout the 80 minutes but he will ask plenty of questions when he does.

Tom Trbojevic, on the other hand, is a bit of an unknown. He's not looked his best throughout the NRL season, both by the numbers and by the eye test. Campbell Graham is terribly unlucky not to be there in his place. Trbojevic does add a point of difference to the Blues attack, though. He can roam like a fullback and pop up in different spots. The first attacking kick Nathan Cleary puts up will likely be directed at Reece Walsh, with Trbojevic there to contest.

Tabuai-Fidow and Trbojevic will decide which team wins the position battle. In one game and without the weight of a whole club on his shoulders, Trbojevic is best positioned to have a major impact on the result. Advantage, Blues.

MORE: State of Origin 2023 Predictions

Origin 2023: Halves

Cameron Munster & Daly Cherry-Evans (QLD) vs Jarome Luai & Nathan Cleary (NSW)

Cameron Munster will go down as one of the best Queensland State of Origin players in history. He grows another leg at this level, and so long as he's on the field, the Maroons have a chance.

Queensland hasn't always been able to match New South Wales in individual attacking talent, but Munster finds a way to make those around him better and cross the line himself, as he did in Round 12 against the Dolphins. There's no reason to think he won't do the same in this one. He has an ideal foil in Daly Cherry-Evans, too. Cherry-Evans doesn't have the flash of Munster, but he kicks well and organises those around him.

Jarome Luai has managed to keep his place in the side despite a relatively lacklustre start to the 2023 NRL season. In a Queensland-like move, he's the beneficiary of incumbency but will need to perform well in the series opener to retain his spot. Luai's familiarity with Nathan Cleary will have played a part, too. Cleary has been in excellent form for the Panthers in recent weeks, despite it not reflecting in the numbers. He's the best halfback in the game, and if the Blues middle can get up the field, Cleary will manufacture points.

Munster and Cleary are the headline acts, but Cherry-Evans' reliability gives Queensland a slight edge in the halves.

Origin 2023: Hookers

Ben Hunt (QLD) vs Api Koroisau (NSW)

Harry Grant will play most of the minutes at dummy half, but Ben Hunt will start the game for Queensland. His role to start will be simple: pass the ball to the forwards and tackle well. He's there to take the early sting out of the game before Grant looks to push things from behind the ruck as the middle starts to slow down. Where Queensland starts to see an advantage is in Hunt's experience as a hooker and his versatility to cover other positions. Outside of Apisai Koroisau, the Blues lack options at dummy half.

After playing a big role in the Wests Tigers' recent turnaround, including their 44-16 victory over the Cowboys, Koroisau's craft is perfect for State of Origin. So much of the game is played tight around the ruck, and his deception can be the difference between an average carry and a teammate winning the ruck. By needing Koroisau to play 80 minutes or sending a makeshift hooker into dummy half for a spell, Queensland holds the advantage at the position.

Origin 2023: Middle Forwards

Tom Flegler, Lindsay Collins & Patrick Carrigan (QLD) vs Tevita Pangai Jr., Payne Haas & Isaah Yeo (NSW)

Payne Haas is the difference in the middle forwards. He's the best prop in the game, can play monster minutes, and holds up on both sides of the ball. Patrick Carrigan has shown the Blues how best to use him. Carrigan's ballplaying through the middle with Haas hanging off his hip has been a key feature of the Broncos attack this year, and it's a role Isaah Yeo can perform just as well.

Tevita Pangai Jr. is there to throw himself into the first 20 minutes by running hard and charging out of the defensive line. He's perfect for the role if he can behave himself. If not, the Blues could lose the game before he heads to the bench. Tom Flegler and Lindsay Collins will be tasked with keeping a lid on Pangai Jr. early. Flegler, in particular, is in career-best form, averaging 113 metres per game.

Carrigan and Yeo cancel each other out, while Pangai Jr., Flegler, and Collins want to take each other out. Haas is the best yardage forward in the game and puts New South Wales on the front foot through the middle.

MORE: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 13, 2023

Origin 2023: Edge Forwards

David Fifita & Tom Gilbert (QLD) vs Tyson Frizell & Hudson Young (NSW)

Welcome back, David Fifita. A new and improved David Fifita, who is no longer simply a wrecking ball. Where the Gold Coast Titans previously passed him the ball and hoped for the best in prior seasons, Fifita has added a pass to his game that is causing havoc down the left edge, scoring a try assist in three of his last four games, including one in the Titans' Round 9 win over the Sea Eagles. His work rate has increased, too. In a match that often comes down to a single try, Fifita has the game-winning play in him and puts Queensland on top at the position. Tom Gilbert, on the other hand, is the workhorse edge forward Queensland regularly employs. He has spent the majority of his time at lock this season but is no stranger to the edge, where he's started 25 times at NRL level.

Tyson Frizell has been rewarded for a strong season with his first State of Origin cap since 2020. In a Blues side stacked with players that will cart the ball up the field, his focus will be on holding down one edge in defence. Named to make his debut, Hudson Young is an interesting selection. He's a try-scoring forward but another reliable defender for the Blues on the edge. His minutes and possible rotation with Liam Martin will be something to keep an eye on in Game 1.

Origin 2023: Bench

Harry Grant, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Reuben Cotter & Jai Arrow (QLD) vs Junior Paulo, Cameron Murray, Liam Martin & Nicho Hynes (NSW)

Queensland has landed on a conventional bench with Harry Grant set to play big minutes at hooker, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui an elite option at prop, Reuben Cotter a quick middle option for either side of half-time, and Jai Arrow providing some versatility in the middle and on the edge.

Billy Slater has his bases covered and has won matches with his bench in the past. There's a good chance he does so again in this one.

Freddy Fittler has done something similar, with Junior Paulo likely to come off the bench and finish the game using a single substitution. Cameron Murray can add another gear to the Blues attack through the middle when he enters the game, while Liam Martin acts as the middle and edge option. It's Nicho Hynes, who had to be selected, who is the unknown. He has been spotted taking reps at hooker, but that is a waste of his talent and a spot on the bench. Perhaps he doesn't get on the field at all. It's a classic Fittler head-scratcher, and one that could hurt the Blues in the end.

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