State of Origin 3 - NSW vs QLD Predictions

With the 2022 State of Origin series tied at one win apiece, we're headed to a decider and they don't get any bigger or better than Game 3 at Suncorp Stadium.

The Queensland Maroons managed to grind out an impressive win in Sydney to open the series as their middle held firm in defence and provided the likes of Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans enough opportunities to manufacture points.

In Game 2, however, the New South Wales Blues dominated the centre-third. The Blues laid the foundations in the first half before piling on the points to send this series to Suncorp.

It's do-or-die now and three areas stand out as the deciding factors heading into State of Origin Game 3.

RELATED: State of Origin 3 Probabilities 

QLD vs NSW Fullback Battle

James Tedesco has been simply outstanding to start the 2022 State of Origin series but has barely been mentioned before or after matches. This level of play is what we've come to expect from the 29-year-old so all the talk is directed elsewhere to the players under or over-performing expectations.

Teddy ran for 291 metres in Game 1 and 259 metres in Game 2. Running metres aren't everything for a fullback but cracking 250+ in both games highlights his activity. Tedesco has been everywhere and while he hasn't scored a try himself or handed one to a teammate, his carries out of yardage, gravity in the line and scheming runs in good ball have laid the foundation for New South Wales.

It's the scoots like this that turn a yardage set into one that ends with an attacking kick that go largely unnoticed.

Playing in his 19th Origin match on Wednesday night, Tedesco is putting himself into the conversation as one of the best fullbacks in Origin history. We know what the Blues will get from him in this one.

Kalyn Ponga, on the other hand, is a little bit different. It has only been this year, and Game 2 in particular, that he has really started to make his mark in Origin. Ponga is going to need to keep making it if the Maroons are to cause an upset and seal the series at Suncorp Stadium.

Cameron Munster's absence adds to the importance of Ponga's performance. Where the fullback has been able to spot up and insert himself into the Queensland attack whenever he sees fit, Ponga will need to be on the ball more often in this one. He will be asked to create more opportunities rather than finish them off. It's a role he has performed well for the Newcastle Knights this season so we can expect him to slot in relatively seamlessly.

All of the talk will be about who wears the #6 jersey for Queensland. It's an important piece of the puzzle and will go a long way to determining the result. However, Ponga is the player that can be the difference regardless of who replaces Munster. He was one of the best on the ground in Game 2 and if he can repeat that performance behind an improved Queensland middle, the Maroons should be able to get the job done at home.

MORE: NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Game 3 Tips 

Nathan Cleary's Kicking Game

Nathan Cleary's boot is one of the most important weapons in the series, with an off-night in Game 1 going a long way to determining that result. 

The Maroons know Jarome Luai isn't going to put boot to ball very often so pressured Cleary into a poor performance. Both in attacking kicks and from yardage, he couldn't find the areas of the field he typically does.

However, Cleary corrected things in Origin Game 2.

Having the option of Matt Burton to kick on the last released some pressure. Queensland couldn't simply rush Cleary and apply pressure to only him. Burton can't be left alone to release one of his bombs without pressure. That afforded Cleary a little bit more time and he used it to kick the Blues to victory.

New South Wales dominated in yardage to run for almost 800 more metres than Queensland and a lot of it came down to where the sets started. Cleary pinned the Maroons in their own end of the field. He turned the big forwards around and asked them to travel back deep into their own half where the Maroons back-three couldn't emulate the Blues in yardage.

While Queensland managed to hold on and even build a lead in the first half, the fatigue that style of play builds in the opposition ultimately won New South Wales the match. They ran away with it late as Billy Slater's side ran out of gas.

Burton is in there again for Game 3 but expect Queensland's focus to return to Cleary. Containing his boot translates into a better performance in yardage and in defence - the two key areas to winning any football match.

RELATED: NRL True Kicker Ratings

State of Origin 3 Bench Impact

How NSW and QLD have performed off the bench has been crucial across the opening first two games of State of Origin 2022.

Game 1, in particular, came down to Slater's use of the bench and the times at which he introduced what ended up as match-winning players. He saw the need for speed against tired New South Wales legs and it is at that point Queensland took control of the game and never looked back.

It didn't go quite as planned in Game 2. 

Pat Carrigan again performed well for his 103 running metres but Jai Arrow and Jeremiah Nanai struggled to have an impact. 

It remains to be seen how Queensland lineup from numbers 14 to 17. Harry Grant may yet start at hooker which entirely changes the way Slater will look to use his bench compared with the first two games. 

Should Grant start, the game state will determine Slater's decisions. Having him play the full 80 minutes will surely be the intention but Tom Dearden might be called upon to slot into dummy half at some point to give Grant a breather. It's not Dearden's natural position but can be backed to provide decent enough service and is a good enough defender to fill the middle for brief periods.

Tom Gilbert also has the potential to be a key player in this one. He's a versatile firebrand forward that can fill the middle or the edge. If he's asked to run riot for 25 minutes in the middle, look out.

Looking at NSW, Brad Fittler is unlikely to change his use of the bench too much.

Damien Cook will start on the sideline but play out the rest of the game after being introduced shortly before halftime. Angus Crichton will fill in where he's needed, while Siosifa Talakai will do the same. Ideally, despite it being a trend for the Blues to crowbar bench players into the game whether they're required or not, Talakai isn't needed.

Junior Paulo is the one to watch, though. He's better suited to starting games and playing big minutes. Still, he is impactful off the bench given his consistency in yardage and ability as a ball-player. If the starting Blues middle gets on top early and starts to put some fatigue into the Maroons defence, Paulo can be the one to trigger wide-ranging shifts later in the half. 

There has been nothing to split the two teams to start either Game 1 or 2. The nature of State of Origin lends itself to an arm-wrestle early and it's rare for a team to fly out of the blocks and pile on points. Instead, it's the introduction of the bench players that often turns the game. Carrigan in Game 1 is a fine example. With the two teams again even on paper from kickoff, how Slater and Fittler use their bench players will determine Game 3 and the 2022 series.