State of Origin Predictions 2023: Expert Analysis for QLD vs NSW Series Winner
Last updated: Jun 18, 2023, 8:17AM | Published: Jun 18, 2023, 8:16AM
Stats Insider's rugby league model has given its State of Origin predictions for the 2023 series ahead of Game 2.
After Queensland's 26-18 win over the Blues in State of Origin Game 1, the Maroons only have to win one of the remaining two games to claim the series.
Let's take a look at what our rugby league predictive model says about both teams' chances heading into QLD vs NSW Game 2.
State of Origin 2023 Predictions
After running thousands of data-driven simulations, we have determined that Queensland has a 76.8% chance of winning the State of Origin 2023 series, with NSW given a 23.2% probability prior to State of Origin Game 2 at Suncorp Stadium.
| Team | Series Win Probability |
| NSW Blues | 23.2% |
| Queensland Maroons | 76.8% |
Can Queensland Close Out State of Origin 2023 at Home?
For the rest of the 2023 series, Stats Insider's State of Origin tips have Queensland winning Game 2 then losing Game 3 as the most likely outcome at 35.6%, with a Maroons clean sweep being the next most probable outcome at 26.4%.
| Series Correct Score | Probability |
| Queensland 2-1 | 50.3% |
| Queensland 3-0 | 26.4% |
| NSW 2-1 | 23.2% |
According to our State of Origin Game 2 predictions, the predicted final score for QLD vs NSW Game 2 is 22-16 in Queensland's favour.
Stats Insider's rugby league expert has explained why the predictive model favours Queensland.
"No NSW team has ever levelled the series at Suncorp Stadium then gone on to win the series," he said.
"History isn't on the Blues' side, and neither is our predictive model. Our model has taken a number of factors into consideration, including the venue and player availability.
"It was already going to be a tough ask to go to Suncorp Stadium to defeat Queensland, but the confirmation of Latrell Mitchell missing compounds the loss of Nathan Cleary, who was ruled out with a hamstring injury after the Panthers' 26-18 win over the Dragons.
"The winning probability being weighted in favour of Queensland is reflective of those factors, and while we're not ruling out the Blues winning Game 2, the Maroons are more likely to wrap up the series at home."
State of Origin 2023 Game 2 kicks off at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday, June 21 from Suncorp Stadium.
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