The first few rounds of an AFL season function a little like speed dating with everybody (clubs and fans alike) trying to rapidly get to know one other. 

While the ladder is a reasonable indication of who’s doing well and who’s not, it’s not ideal after just three rounds of footy, with the underlying numbers painting a clearer picture of what’s actually going on.

Today we’ll stand all 18 clubs up against the wall and throw a few of pieces of negative information at each. And we’ll do so in reverse ladder order. Let’s get to it.

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Essendon

We touched on the Bombers wooden spoon bonafides last week, and if they’re indeed in the running for a second spoon since 1933, what this team does without the ball will have a massive say. So far, Essendon rank 17th for tackle, clearance and contested disposal differential, 17th for total one percent acts and dead last for metres gained differential too. This has led to the Bombers surrendering the most inside 50s in the league which yep, unsurprisingly, has resulted in them conceding a league-high 334 points on the season.

Punters- At TopSport, the Bombers are paying $8 to go from 2021 finalists to 2022 wooden spooners. 

West Coast

A zip-3 start, and like Essendon, here’s a proud, decorated club staring right down the barrel of a rare wooden spoon. And it’s only April. The Eagles at least have a lot more excuses than most owing to a decimated playing list that’s has already seen 38 different players in uniform, but where only 7 have appeared in all 3 games. The good news is that they are coming out and having a crack and have actually posted a 105.8 first quarter percentage through their first 3 games. The bad news is that number drops to just 36.9 in the second quarter once their compromised reality sets in. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Eagles are now $4.5 second-favourites for the wooden spoon. 

Port Adelaide

Keen observers of Stats Insider content would know how suspicious our data crunchers were about Port’s 2022 prospects before a ball was even kicked in anger. Our model was forecasting a sharp slide in 2022 which is what the Power are indeed experiencing right now. Despite plenty of football, and a heap of inside 50s (they rank 4th and 6th for disposal and I50 differential) a massive concern for Port is a severely malfunctioning forward line that ranks last for converting inside 50’s into marks and 17th for turning inside 50’s into goals.

Punters- You can now get $4 about Port Adelaide making the top-4 for a third-straight season. 

North Melbourne 

A very concerning start for the Roos, obviously punctuated by a 108-point loss to the Lions at the Gabba. On the one hand North are trying to employ a more adventurous game and rank 6th for kick-to-handball ratio, yet on the other hand they’re not very good at the actual kicking part of that scenario. So far the Roos rank 16th for kicking efficiency and 16th for turnovers per disposal. This lack of cleanliness is resulting in a dearth of scoring opportunities with the club ranking just 16th for total inside 50s which in turn has resulted in the least points scored in the league through three rounds.

Punters- At TopSport, the Roos are paying $2.7 to claim back-to-back wooden spoons for the first time since 1934-35.

Adelaide 

An after-the-siren Jordan Dawson goal ensured their first win of the season, but there are still plenty of concerns for the Crows. In fact, the expected score ladder suggests that they, along with West Coast, should be the only undefeated teams in the league through three rounds. A glaring problem for Adelaide right now is how easily they’re being scored against with 46.5% of opposition inside 50’s resulting in a scoring shot, which is a number only Port Adelaide are faring worse in. 

Punters- Josh Rachele ranks 1st for total rising star goals and 10th for total rising star disposals with TopSport paying $8 about their brilliant first-round pick landing the club’s first Rising Star win since Daniel Talia in 2012.

GWS Giants 

A breakthrough 2022 season win against the Suns, but this is a team who could still afford to pull their sleeves up and work a little harder at the coalface. Only 35.9% of the team’s possessions this season have been earned via the contest which ranks 17th in the league and ahead of only Essendon. In addition, the Giants rank 14th for total one percent acts, having finished 2nd in the league on that front in 2022.

Punters- The Giants are paying $19 to win a first club premiership in 2022.

Western Bulldogs

Like the Giants, the doggies got their first win of the season this round but most importantly it was achieved through dramatically cleaning up so many of the elements that plagued their performances over the first two weeks. What’ll remain in the spotlight all season is how the team fares in defensive 50, particularly through the air. So far they rank 13th in one-on-one loss % and are allowing opponents to score a goal on 24.2% of inside 50 entries which places them 11th in the league. They finished 3rd in that stat over the course of 2021.

Punters- At TopSport, the Doggies are paying $2.35 to finish top-4 for the first time under Luke Beveridge. 

Richmond 

When the Tigers were gobbling up premierships one of their defining strengths was their defence which was on the one hand impenetrable and on the other absolutely lethal at picking your team off and setting up counter attack opportunities. For now, both of those elements are barely existent. Once opponents enter Richmond’s defensive 50 they are producing a scoring shot on 45.2% of forays which is the 3rd worst mark in the league. Equally concerning is the drying up of intercept possessions. So far, they rank 16th generating just 62.7 per game. For comparison’s sake they ranked 1st, 3rd and 1st in that stat during their 2017, 2019 and 2020 premiership campaigns. 

Punters- The 1-2 Tigers are now paying $1.68 to miss finals for a second-straight year. 

Gold Coast

The Suns aren’t getting much of the footy this year and when they do, they’re butchering it rather worryingly. They rank dead last for total disposals and dead last for disposal efficiency. While this is a product of a significantly altered game style in 2022 and which is emphasising faster ball movement (they rank for 5th for total inside 50s) it’s making for a sink or swim approach which more accomplished teams will relish playing against. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Gold Coast suns are paying $8.50 to play finals for the first time in club history. 

St Kilda

The Saints threw the footy public off-guard courtesy of their wretched first-up loss to Collingwood yet have responded with a couple of hard-fought wins over the last fortnight. One area however where St Kilda must improve is its painfully slow starts. They’re so far lumped in with only Adelaide and Gold Coast as the only teams yet to win a first stanza in 2022 while only the Crows have surrendered more first quarter points. If they can stop sleeping through their alarm they’ll be a legitimate finals threat in 2022. If they don’t it’ll be another wasted season. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Saints are paying $26 to win their first premiership since 1966.

Sydney 

For all intents and purposes the Swans are a clear and present 2022 premiership threat…. But what if we told you they’re positioned just 14th on the expected point ladder through the first three rounds. The Swans have been the league’s most accurate team so far while their opponents have been the league’s second-least accurate which has contributed to that potentially worrisome expected score figure. With that said, their accuracy is helped along by an extremely direct game-style, but as we saw against the Dogs on Thursday night, if Sydney’s preferred approach can be disrupted, they can be exposed.

Punters- The Swans are paying $2.25 to finish top-4 for the first time since 2016.

Geelong 

If it wasn’t for a last quarter blitzkrieg the Cats would have lost their second straight and would have had many in the football world hard on their case. And despite escaping with the win, one of Geelong’s chief concerns right now ought to centre on their work without the ball which is has so far seen them allow a league high 255 uncontested possessions per game while seeing opponents operate at 71% by foot which is also the league’s very worst number. This has all added up to being ranked 10th for points conceded and which represents a massive jump for Geelong having ranked 2nd last season and 4th the year prior.

Punters- Jeremy Cameron is paying $6 to finish the 2022 season with a second Coleman medal in his pocket. 

Collingwood

Ladies and and gentleman, Collingwood should be the league’s only undefeated team if we were only going off expected points. That’s the good news. The bad news is they did throw away a very winnable game against the Cats on Saturday night conceding the game’s last 7 goals. Clearly the Pies have improved immensely under Crag McRae however something which could plague them all season is height and talent at both ends of the ground. Collingwood rank 16th in the league converting just 16.8% of inside 50s into a mark while at the other end opponents are converting 25.5% of their inside 50s into a grab which is the 3rd worst rate in the league.

Punters- Nick Daicos is averaging 25 disposals per game which is what Sam Walsh averaged when he won the 2019 Ring Star. TopSport, are offering $2 about Daicos claiming Collingwood’s second Risng Star award in club history. 

Fremantle

The Dockers are one the league’s absolute blue collar teams ranking 6th for total tackles, 3rd for tackles inside 50 and 3rd in the league for points conceded with only Brisbane and Hawthorn shipping more so far. Unfortunately they're still very much wanting when it comes to attacking options, particularly among its bigs. The return of Matthew Taberner was crucial kicking 3 goals and taking 9 marks on Sunday against the Eagles, though until they can consistently lift from being ranked bottom 4 for marks inside 50 and marks on the lead, so much of this club’s brilliant midfield grunt work will remain unrewarded.

Punters- Fremantle are paying $2.5 to play finals for the first time in 7 years. 

Hawthorn

The Hawks are one of the most significantly improved teams in the league, rattling home and nearly knocking off the Blues at the MCG after being 7 goals down. What’s worked so well for Hawthorn so far is its brilliant defence coupled with an attack that’s converted so many of the relatively limited opportunities that have come their way. Despite the promising start there are a couple of concerning underlying numbers largely pertaining to midfield efficiency. So far only West Coast has generated less than Hawthorn’s 47 inside 50s per game, while again, it’s only the Eagles who’ve committed more turnovers per match in 2022. 

Punters- TopSport are offering $3.8 about the prospect of Hawthorn playing finals in 2022.

Carlton 

THE story of the season so far, with the Blues out to a 3-0 start while brandishing a midfield that’s as loaded and as well drilled as any midfield in the league. Through 3 games they’re top of the pops for total disposals and 2nd for inside 50s while they rank 3rd overall for total score involvements. However if there is a concern at Princes Park it might pertain to not dotting the I’s and crossing the T’s. We of course saw Hawthorn storm home and nearly topple them on Sunday, while the same almost happened the week earlier against the bulldogs. In 2022, Carlton actually have more total quarter losses (7) than they’ve won (5) while a further concern is their ability to run out matches. So far Carlton have won all 3 first halves and posted a 165.7 percentage in the process. Their second halves however have left a lot to be desired with that percentage slipping to 76.8 while winning juts one second half so far.

Punters- A first Blues premiership since 1995? TopSport are offering $11 about that prospect coming to fruition in 2022. 

Melbourne 

The Demons are rather good at football and fully deserve their flag favouritism. Finding faults with the reigning champs isn’t easy and we’ll pick on the same concern we did in 2021 but which also kind of functions as a positive for them at the same time. If Melbourne do have a weakness or at least something that’s preventing them from being completely unbeatable it’s their ability to convert opportunities up forward. This season the Demons rank ‘just’ 13th for goal accuracy converting 45.5% of opportunities while ‘only’ 22.7% of their inside 50’s are resulting in a goal. We highlight ‘just’ and ‘only’ because Melbourne generate a sickening amount of opportunities owing to their phenomenal midfield which softens the blow where that conversion is concerned. 

Punters- The AFL hasn’t had a back-to-back minor premier since Hawthorn in 2012-13. The Demons are paying $2.9 to do just that in 2022. 

Brisbane 

Are the Lions a genuine flag challenger in 2022? Well based on what they’ve done over the first 3 rounds the answer would be quite clearly, yet this remains a team who isn’t blemish free. On the surface, it mightn’t be the biggest issue in the world, but the Lions are allowing opposition ruckmen to produce a hit-out to advantage 40% of the time which is the 3rd worst mark in footy and up sharply on the 30.2% number they allowed last season. People are divided on just how much stock to place in hit-outs though something to keep in mind is that last season of the 9 teams who performed worst in opposition hit-outs to advantage, 8 missed out on finals. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Lions are now clear second-favourites for the flag and are paying $6. 

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