Storm Steady in 2023 NRL Premiership Probabilities
Last updated: Jun 14, 2023, 11:50PM | Published: Jun 14, 2023, 8:51AM
The Storm are the fourth most likely team to win the 2023 NRL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's NRL futures model, the Storm have a 10.4% chance of winning the 2023 NRL premiership after defeating the Sharks by 44 points in Round 15.
The win also saw the Sharks drop from third in our premiership probabilities to fifth at 10.3%.
The victory over Cronulla also saw the Storm shorten to win the 2023 NRL premiership at $7.00 via Dabble, which is an implied probability of 14.3%.
Stats Insider's NRL expert explained that the Storm's win over the Sharks played a role in them maintaining their position at fourth with the predictive model's premiership probabilities, while the Sharks slid down to fifth.
"Our NRL schedule difficulty model believes Melbourne has the fourth toughest schedule for the remainder of the year," he said.
"With games against the Tigers and Sea Eagles coming up, it's likely the model has the Storm as favourites in the next two, which made their Round 15 win against the Sharks a big one.
"Heading into the match with a 59% win probability, not only did they grab in win in a contest that was expected to be a close affair, they did it in impressive fashion against a fellow premiership contender. They have now jumped above the Sharks in our futures model's top-four probabilities."
"The big test will come in three weeks against Penrith, but if the Storm do what they have to against the Tigers and Sea Eagles, there's every chance their premiership probabilities could rise again before their Round 19 bye."
MORE: Tigers vs Storm Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 16, 2023
2023 NRL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Penrith Panthers | 31.2% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 21.7% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 10.5% |
| Melbourne Storm | 10.4% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 10.3% |
| Parramatta Eels | 5.3% |
| Sydney Roosters | 4.0% |
| Canberra Raiders | 3.0% |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 1.1% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
If you decide to use our NRL analysis for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly, set limits, and seek help if needed. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
