Super Bowl LIX: Touchdown Bets for Chiefs vs Eagles

Super Bowl 59 is set for an epic showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, kicking off at 10:30 AM AEDT on Monday, February 10. Using advanced analytics, our model has simulated this matchup 10,000 times to uncover the best touchdown scorer value bets on Betfair. With our projections matched against the odds on the exchange, we've uncovered the best back bets you can make when it comes to TD scorers in this huge game.

First off, let's take a look at the top five most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers, before diving into the players that we have edge on. 

Who Will Score a Touchdown in the Super Bowl?

After running 10,000 sims of Monday’s Chiefs-Eagles game, the two most likely touchdown scorers are the dynamic duo from Philly, with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts both more likely than not to add to their three TDs each from last week.

• Saquon Barkley (Eagles): 57.8%

• Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 50.5%

• Kareem Hunt (Chiefs): 48.3%

• Travis Kelce (Chiefs): 33.5%

• Xavier Worthy (Chiefs): 38.2%

Who Will Score The First Touchdown in the Super Bowl?

Another popular market on Betfair this week is for the first TD scorer, with the same names (plus A.J. Brown) leading the line when it comes to our probabilities.

• Saquon Barkley (Eagles): 14.5%

• Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 11.4%

• Kareem Hunt (Chiefs): 11.1%

• Travis Kelce (Chiefs): 9.7%

• Xavier Worthy (Chiefs), A.J. Brown (Eagles): 8.2%

Best touchdown bets for the Super Bowl

Taking in the above probabilities, we have found the best value touchdown bets to make on the Super Bowl when betting on the Betfair Exchange. 

Although Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts are the two most likely players to score, the value simply isn’t there on them right now, with those on the Exchange pricing them fairly according to our model.

Kareem Hunt ($2.07)

Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt is currently available to back on the Exchange at odds of $2.46. With our model pricing him at $2.07, we currently have 7.6% edge on this bet. 

With the exchange constantly updating, our advice is to take any price of $2.14 or better to ensure you hold a 1.5% edge with this play.

Dallas Goedert ($4.60)

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is currently available to back on the Exchange at odds of $4.60. With our model pricing him at $4.13, we currently have 2.5% edge on this bet. 

With the exchange constantly updating, our advice is to take any price of $4.41 or better to ensure you hold a 1.5% edge with this play.

Travis Kelce ($2.40)

Chiefs TE Travie Kelce is currently available to back on the Exchange at odds of $2.40. With our model pricing him at $2.30, we currently have 1.7% edge on this bet. 

With the exchange constantly updating, our advice is to take any price of $2.31 or better to ensure you hold a 1.5% edge with this play.

More Super Bowl betting advice

For more when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl, we recommend using the Following Tipsters section of the Betfair app, where you can follow a host of experts, including Stats Insider.

Just download the app and turn on notifications to ensure you don't miss a tip!

Plus, check out more of our updating NFL predictions as we approach the big game.

Conclusion

As we look at the game between Philly and KC this Monday morning, the most likely touchdown scorers are the Eagles' two-punch combo of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, with the best value play on the exchange being to back the Chiefs' Kareem Hunt.