Super Bowl LVII: Who Will Win, Projected Stats & Predicted Score
Last updated: Feb 13, 2023, 3:40AM | Published: Feb 8, 2023, 5:07AM
Stats Insider has implemented its industry-leading technology to determine the most likely outcomes all throughout the NFL season, and for this year's Super Bowl, we're taking it to the next level.
Ahead of the NFL's decider on Monday morning (AEDT), we're giving our readers a detailed look at how Super Bowl LVII will play out, the players that are set to dominate, and a predicted final score.
Let's take a look at how our predictive model sees the Super Bowl playing out.
Who Will Win Super Bowl LVII?
Stats Insider's analytics model is predicting a narrow victory for the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium in Arizona.
The model predicts the Eagles will win 25-24 against the Kansas City Chiefs after simulating the outcome over 10,000 times.
The model predicts that the Eagles have a 54% chance of winning this year's Super Bowl, with Sportsbet putting them at $1.80.
MORE: Predictive Model Reveals Super Bowl LVII Winner
Brandon Aiyuk sounds confident in the Chiefs handling the Eagles 🍿 pic.twitter.com/MOLl8HcAMU
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 7, 2023
Super Bowl LVII Projected Player Stats
Passing Stats
| Chiefs | Eagles |
| P. Mahomes - 281 yards | J. Hurts - 239 yards |
Rushing Stats
| Chiefs | Eagles |
| I. Pacheco - 57 yards, 31% TD | M. Sanders - 72 yards, 32% TD |
| P. Mahomes - 23 yards, 18% TD | J. Hurts - 54 yards, 60% TD |
| J. McKinnon - 18 yards, 34% TD | K. Gainwell - 26 yards, 13% TD |
Receiving Stats
| Chiefs | Eagles |
| T. Kelce - 80 yards, 55% TD | A. Brown - 84 yards, 41% TD |
| J. Smith-Schuster - 55 yards, 19% TD | D. Goedert - 51 yards, 32% TD |
| M. Valdes-Scantling - 40 yards, 24% TD | D. Smith - 51 yards, 34% TD |
| J. McKinnon - 28 yards, 34% TD | Q. Watkins - 17 yards, 9% TD |
| S. Moore - 23 yards, 14% TD | K. Gainwell - 14 yards, 13% TD |
Super Bowl LVII Predicted Score
Stats Insider's predictive model has the Eagles winning the Super Bowl 25-24 against the Chiefs on Monday morning.
The model predicts the total combined score of Super Bowl LVII will be 49 points, which means it sees the total points under line of 51 being the line betting play. The model gave this predictive outcome directly after the Super Bowl teams were confirmed and that score has not changed since.
The line for the Super Bowl has the Eagles at -1.5, which means the betting play for the game is taking the Chiefs at +1.5 according to our predictive model.
One of Stats Insider's in-house data experts believes the model will adjust significantly in favour of the Eagles if Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is ruled out of the Super Bowl due to injury.
"The players taking part in the game are one of the features our model takes into account," the data expert explained.
"Any particular changes at quarterback are particularly important in that regard.
"Currently we're assuming Mahomes takes the field for the Chiefs, however if that news is to change and he is unable to take the field, we'd expect our model to move further towards the Eagles."
Super Bowl LVII Player Props
Our model has Mahomes throwing for 278 yards, which is significantly below his current line of 292.5 with the online bookmakers, which means our model suggests taking the under.
Jalen Hurts is almost perfectly aligned with our model and what the online bookmakers are offering. Hurts' line is at 238.5 yards, with our model predicting he'll throw 238, which makes it tough to advise any wagers on the Eagles quarterback in the Super Bowl throwing yards markets.
Our model's biggest edge is betting against Jerick McKinnon. In our simulation of the game, McKinnon ended up rushing for only 17 yards, with Isiah Pacheco leading the carrying with 57 yards.
In the AFC Championship Game, Pacheco had 85 total yards in the win over the Bengals, which means if he was able to replicate that he would eclipse the player prop line of 46.5 offered with Sportsbet.
How to Watch the Super Bowl in Australia
Aussies wanting to tune in to watch Super Bowl LVII on Monday morning can do so on free-to-air TV through Channel 7.
The Super Bowl will be available live and on demand via subscription service Kayo Sports, which is also streaming Super Bowls of the past for the avid NFL lover.
The game will also be available on subscription television provider Foxtel, which will take the ESPN feed live from America.
