Sydney Slides Down AFL Top 8 Probabilities

Sydney has dropped to 33.7% probability of making the 2023 AFL finals.

According to Stats Insider's AFL predictive model, after a 29-point defeat to the Magpies in Round 8, the Swans have a 33.7% chance of making this year's top eight.

Sydney's decline comes after suffering a 133-52 defeat to Geelong in the 2022 Grand Final, the equal fifth largest margin in a decider in the game's history.

After starting the season with two wins, the Swans decline has been sharp, winning just one match in the subsequent six, a Round 5 122-78 victory over Richmond.

The loss to Collingwood leaves Sydney in 11th position on the ladder, with games against Fremantle, North Melbourne and Carlton in the AFL schedule before their Round 12 bye.

Sydney gets the chance to get back onto the winners list in Round 9 when they host Fremantle at the SCG.

READ: Why Does Collingwood Keep Winning Close Games?

2023 AFL Top 8 Probabilities

All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.

Geelong the Most Probable Premiership Team

Geelong is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.

The Cats, who lost the opening three games of the season, top Stats Insider's AFL futures probabilities after turning around their winless start to their premiership defence. 

The Cats also moved alongside Collingwood asBetfair's 2023 AFL premiership favourites at the $5.00 quote.

Geelong jumped up to sixth on the AFL ladder following a 98-72 win over Adelaide at GHMBA Stadium, which was the Cats' fifth win in a row.

Geelong's next match is against the bottom four Richmond on Friday night.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)