Some teams remained on course to get a spot in the College Football Playoff, while one top-tier contender was knocked off course. Let’s break down that picture and deal with some of the other Power Five conference races as well.

1 – Oklahoma passes its big test

The Big 12 appears to be Oklahoma and Texas, then all the rest. This does mean that Texas should be able to earn a rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game in December. However, by beating Texas this past Saturday, Oklahoma gives itself a chance to not only get into the College Football Playoff, but to make the playoff as a higher seed.

Remember this: One of the two playoff semi-finals in late December is in Atlanta, Georgia, home of the Peach Bowl. The other semifinal is in suburban Phoenix, Arizona, home of the Fiesta Bowl.

With Clemson and Alabama (or LSU) being the likely top two seeds in a playoff, it is important for Oklahoma and Ohio State, the two favorites for the other two playoff spots, to get the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4 seed in the playoff.

Because Clemson and the SEC champion are Southern schools, the No. 1 seed is likely to go to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl. The No. 2 seed would go to the Fiesta Bowl.

Oklahoma and Ohio State would much rather go to Arizona than to Georgia. They would be able to bring a much bigger crowd and have a better gameday environment.

Alabama and Clemson fans really want to stay close to home in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl. With the championship game being in New Orleans, the Alabama-Clemson team which has to travel to the Fiesta Bowl probably won’t bring as many fans as the team which plays in the Peach Bowl.

A 12-1 Oklahoma team which wins the Big 12 championship will make the playoff, but as the No. 4 seed in the Peach Bowl, facing a big and hostile crowd in Atlanta. A 13-0 Oklahoma team would be able to get the No. 3 seed and a trip to suburban Phoenix. Keep track of that tension point as the season goes along.

2 – LSU gains leverage

If a team which fails to win a conference championship is able to make the playoff this season, the most likely candidate – without any debate – is LSU.

The Tigers already defeated Texas on the road. Now they have beaten a very good Florida team. If LSU fails to win the SEC championship but finishes 11-1, with its only loss coming to Alabama, it will have a legitimate shot at the playoff if either Ohio State or Oklahoma stumble, or if Clemson somehow loses a game in the very weak ACC. (Not likely, I know, but one has to mention the scenario just in case.)

Why is LSU in such a strong position to be the non-champion of a conference which still makes the playoff? One reason is that LSU’s schedule is much stronger than Alabama’s schedule.

The other reason:

3 – Georgia loses margin for error, and hurts Notre Dame

The Georgia Bulldogs stepped on a rake in the middle of the yard. They lost at home to South Carolina as a three-touchdown favorite. They lost to the Gamecocks on a day when South Carolina quarterback Ryan Hilinski was injured. This was a catastrophic loss for Georgia and head coach Kirby Smart.

This is the plain truth: Georgia must run the table to make the playoff.

Under no circumstances can the Bulldogs lose a second game and still make the playoff. The loss to South Carolina carries too much baggage. Therefore, any additional loss eliminates UGA. The Bulldogs have to go 12-1 and win the SEC championship. That gives them a safe place in the playoff field, with Alabama or LSU possibly making the playoff as an at-large team.

Georgia’s loss also means that Notre Dame’s “we almost won” argument loses its heft. The Irish needed that Georgia result to look supremely good for the rest of the season. Notre Dame’s playoff fate was tethered to Georgia’s.

Welp!

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4 – Clemson should be fine, but it also has no margin for error

If people tell you that Clemson will be left out of the playoff even with a perfect record, ignore them. There is simply no way an unbeaten Clemson team, as defending national champion, will be denied a spot. Maybe the Tigers’ seeding in the playoff could suffer, but Clemson won’t be excluded. It simply won’t happen.

However: If Clemson, by some chance, DOES lose once this season, the Tigers would be in huge trouble.

Again, no one expects this to happen, but in the Atlantic Coast Conference, there are no especially strong teams other than the Tigers. Virginia has lost twice. Wake Forest lost on Saturday, so the Demon Deacons are no longer unbeaten. Those were the two especially positive stories of the ACC season other than Clemson, and they both took big punches in Week 7. The quality of the ACC continues to deteriorate, so yes, if Clemson loses only one game this season, that probably WOULD be enough to knock out the Tigers and elevate LSU or Alabama into the fourth playoff seed.

5 – Arizona State gives itself a chance in the Pac-12

The Arizona State Sun Devils play a lot of close games, and they usually win them. ASU is 5-1 after a last-minute win over Washington State, 38-34. Arizona State has either come from behind or broken a tie in the final five minutes of three separate games this season. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels is easily the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year at the midway point of the season.

Arizona State’s wins give the Sun Devils a chance to play preseason Pac-12 South Division favorite Utah on even terms this upcoming weekend. If the Devils prevail in Salt Lake City, they become the favorite in the Pac-12 South. (USC will have a say in the outcome of the division, but that is a separate conversation.)

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