Sunday Night Football makes way for Super Bowl Sunday (Monday AEDT) this weekend as the final two teams left in #NFL100 compete for the famous Lombardi Trophy.

But where exactly have these two teams come from? How did they get here? Who's going to win - and why?

We've spent weeks putting together our team's best analysis and model predictions for the big game, so here it is, all in one place.

WHAT & WHERE

Super Bowl LIV (54)
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Monday 3rd Feb, 10:30am AEDT

STATS INSIDER SAYS...

Bookmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs as slight 1.5 point favourites as of Friday 31st, January, and, while the Stats Insider model - somewhat - agrees with this sentiment, giving the Chiefs a 51% probability of winning Super Bowl LIV, the model is slightly more bullish on the San Francisco 49ers, with their 49% winning probability 3% higher than the implied probability by sportsbook odds. 

What does this mean? If you like the Niners to break their 25-year Super Bowl drought, you might have an ally in the Stats Insider model, which has found an 'edge' on San Francisco against the bookmakers' market. Click the image below to  go directly to the Super Bowl LIV Match Page or keep scrolling for more analysis and coverage of Super Bowl LIV.

Our Super Bowl Touchdown Predictor also ran numbers and has identified these players as the most likely to score a Touchdown.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

For a proud franchise already with a handful of Lombardi trophies, the Niners fall from grace had been as pronounced as any team in contemporary pro sports. It’s also what’s made their incredibly fast turnaround so impressive. 

How is it that a team who won just four games last season - with a massive -93 point differential - is now on the verge of claiming the most iconic trophy in US sports?

Just how have the 49ers returned to the cusp of the NFL greatness so quickly? Read more.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Over the last three decades, the Chiefs have suffered no less than nine playoff losses by seven points or less, ensuring a veritable 'Groundhog Day' of post-season misery.

However, the Chiefs now have the opportunity to alleviate so much of the pain that’s engulfed this proud franchise, with Super Bowl LIV acting as the perfect stage to shed their perennial bridesmaid tag, and to finally have the ballroom all to themselves in Miami. Read more.

MATCH ANALYSIS

Our friends at The Punt Return Podcast have been on fire all year analysing each week of the NFL season, and this week is no different. You can listen to the podcast via the player below, or you can search for "The Punt Return" on your favourite podcast platforms including (but not limited to!) Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify.

So, what happens next?

FOLLOW SUPER BOWL LIV-E

As with every NFL match, Stats Insider will be covering Super Bowl LIV in real-time with live scores and in-play match probabilities from kickoff. Prior to kickoff, this page will display all Stats Insider's pre-match predictions, but following the first play of Super Bowl LIV, will transform into a live match centre that will refresh every 10-15 seconds to keep you updated with each team's likelihood of winning the Super Bowl, covering the bookmakers' spread, and the match over-under total points.

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