The Everest: Betting Preview

The world’s richest turf race is finally here after a lead-up week of controversy! We can finally focus on the race itself, and more importantly, find some value in the second edition of The Everest.

Consistent rain throughout Sydney (up to 70mm in the last week or so) after a dry winter has reduced this race to a potential slogfest. As of the time of publication (4pm Fri), the track has been downgraded to a heavy (9). Not expecting a lot of rain between now and raceday so we may have a heavy (8) by the time of the big one, or even a soft (7) as best case scenario. Wet track form will be key.

Some early speed has been brought out of the race thanks to scratchings over the past few weeks including Home Of The Brave, Nature Strip and Invincible Star. This could advantage front runners such as Le Romain, Vega Magic and even Redzel who should be pressing forward on the rail.

The brand new SI model has worked its magic to come up with ratings for each runner at Randwick (out of 100) as well as the likely finishing order, which we shall run through from top to bottom.

INTRODUCING HORSE RACING TO STATS INSIDER

See our RANDWICK Raceday SI Ratings| See our CAULFIELD Raceday SI Ratings

The TAB Everest

All odds correct as of the TAB at time of publication. Ratings based on a Heavy (9) track.)

REDZEL (barrier 1), $7.00

SI Rating: 99.1

The popular defending champion. Surged into equal favouritism ($11 into $7) after barrier one popped up on the Opera House sails. Not in quite as good nick as last year, but the lack of speed in this race and the draw should play into his hands. Had a bit of a setback this prep: the Snowdens were looking to replicate last year’s path to the Everest but he was forced out of the Group 2 (G2) Shorts with muscle soreness. The result in the G2 Premiere (5^th, 2.1L) was a little underwhelming but it was his first 1200m run of the prep. Raced quite freely in the last furlong and looks in good condition now. Good wet form but hasn’t been over a soft or heavy track since May 2017. Most horses need one run on a heavy track but Redzel has the class to overcome this. A worthy favourite and likely to be on pace, on the rail for a clear run all the way.

TRAPEZE ARTIST (6), $9.00

SI Rating: 98.4

Has had little backing since the barrier draw but I’m not particularly worried – I thought $7 was always too short and the current price is more of a fair reflection. He’ll be competitive. Typically labours second-up and fires on his third run: finished third in a G1 Randwick Guineas ($1m, 1600m) third-up and also won the G1 Golden Rose ($1m, 1400m) and G3 Black Opal ($300k, 1200m) third-up. The two runs this prep were fair, finishing 1.7L back behind Santa Ana Lane in the Premiere. He’s been set for this race before going to stud. The big query: he hasn’t won on anything worse than a soft (5) and will be hoping for no more rain. Prefer others at the price.

SHOALS (2), $7.00

SI Rating: 97.5

Lightly raced 4yo who has amassed $2m in 13 runs. Never runs a bad race and would be the last one I’d be putting a pencil through in these conditions. Steady at $7 since the draw. Runner-up to Santa Ana Lane in the Premiere – discount the clever rails-run that the winner pinched in that race, and she would have taken it out. Two from two on a soft track and one from one on the heavy – the heavy win came at Randwick over the 1200m albeit in a G2. Worth noting that she beat Santa Ana Lane home on a heavy (10) in an August trial. She can keep pace with the leaders so with a bit of early speed out of the race she should be up there from the advantageous draw and is clever enough to take any bad luck out of the race. My top pick.

VEGA MAGIC (7), $8.50

SI Rating: 96.4

The narrow runner-up from 2017 and looks to be going better than Redzel this time around, but the heavy track is just a slight concern. $7 out to $8.50 since the draw. Blinkers back on and Damien Oliver has been on board since the winter. We know how well he steps up for the big ones in Sydney and Melbourne. Could not have been more impressive in the G3 Bletchingly ($150k, 1200m). Untried on a heavy track or even anything worse than a soft (6), but did win on a soft (6) carrying 60.5kg. I do fear that he prefers to skip along the turf rather and lacks the strength to really dig in and accelerate past a field of this calibre, particularly if he has to press hard from the outside half early. Will be putting in a brave effort but no run for six weeks and a heavy (9) worries me.

U S NAVY FLAG (3), $9.00

SI Rating: 94.5

The UK raider of the field. Steady at around the $9 quote this week but $17 was available a fortnight ago. Won $850k and $350k G1s over 1200m and 1400m at Newmarket 12 months ago before finishing the northern spring with victory in the $850k July Cup (1200m). Galloped reasonably well on the heavy (8) on Tuesday morning, but Coolmore principal Tom Magnier admitted “if there’s more rain I’m going to be worried”. Could be right in this if the Randwick crew can manage to get the track upgraded to a soft (7), but otherwise happy to risk.

SANTA ANA LANE (9), $9.00

SI Rating: 93.5

A massive improver in the past two seasons, to the shock of many. $7 to $9 after the unsuitable draw. Spent the bulk of the 15/16 and 16/17 seasons trotting around in Listed/G3 races. He blew them away in the Adelaide and Brisbane carnivals at a juicy price, winning the Goodwood ($1m, 1200m) and Stradbroke ($1.5m, 1200) double on soft and heavy tracks respectively. That bodes well. Melham cleverly pinched a run along the rails to take out the G2 Premiere – a lead-up race for four of these Everest contenders. Could easily have gone on a Rupert Clarke path but now has bigger fish to fry. With a wide gate, will likely need to be ridden for luck again.

IN HER TIME (8), $15

SI Rating: 92.3

Certainly the most disadvantaged of the Kris Lees trio by a heavy track. $11 to $15 since the barrier draw, because of the conditions. Won the G1 Galaxy ($700k, 1100m) at Rosehill in the autumn and backed it up with a third to Trapeze Artist and Redzel in the TJ Smith ($2.6m) over the Randwick 1200m. Has shown ability to win from both inside and outside gates, and has the intelligent and experienced Corey Brown on board. Goes best in weight-for-age conditions but would certainly prefer over a firmer surface. Worth a small speculative each-way.

GRAFF (10), $18

SI Rating: 89.4

The only 3yo in the race, so gets to go around with Avdulla carrying just 53kg. Unwanted by the market – continues to hover at around the $17-18 quote. Yet to put in a bad race, likes to sit quietly in midfield and storm home in the final 400m, so will need some speed on. Placed on soft and heavy tracks this prep against fellow colts, including a 3rd in the $1m Golden Rose. Came home in 37.52 in his only heavy run (Run To The Roses) which unfortunately would not stack up against this field. Absolutely a potential Everest placing one year, but with just three runs as a 3yo, it won’t be this year given the conditions.

BRAVE SMASH (4), $13

SI Rating: 82.5

One second from one run on a soft track and the same record for the heavy. Steady at $13 since the barrier draw. It’s always hard to have Japanese raiders on a wet track but I reckon this tough cookie needs to be in the first fours. Above all else that he has done in Australia lately – storming home from ninth to second in the Moir, the second to Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket and coming from midfield to place in last year’s Everest – the performance I remember which could be quite telling is his first run in Australia. Brave Smash flew from tenth at the 400m to finish less than half a length behind Vega Magic (albeit with a large weight advantage) in the Regal Roller last winter, on a wet Caulfield track. Just one win from eight runs over the 1200m is a slight concern but he’ll be at peak fitness now and the way he has been finishing off suggests he’ll be right in the finish with some luck.

OSBORNE BULLS (5), $18

SI Rating: 76.7

Godolphin-James Cummings runner slotted into the race in place of Home Of The Brave. Rarely runs a bad race but probably out of his depth here. Won the listed Regal Roller ($120k, 1200m) and followed it up with a fifth in the Rupert Clarke ($500k, 1400m) in Melbourne. A lightly raced 5yo with plenty of potential but not ready to tackle a race of this magnitude. Was to be set for the Rupert Clarke third-up, where he generally peaks, but a scratching in early September means he is now third-up here. Never seen anything worse than a soft (5) on raceday. His dam Jerezana did place twice on heavy tracks at Group level, but hard to back without any performances of his own to go on.

VIDDORA (12), $17

SI Rating: 61

An interesting runner. Goes well fresh and has just the one run since the autumn. Blew away Brave Smash and some other sprinters with Everest potential (such as Nature Strip) in the Moir Stakes ($500k, 1000m). Tested just once in soft conditions in two years – the 2018 Goodwood – where she wasn’t in good nick. Worked nicely on Tuesday clocking under 23 seconds for the final 400m and has been sent to beach to get some extra strength in the legs for a heavy track. Dug in nicely on soft tracks in the 2016 winter but I would like some more exposure before backing her on a heavy (9). Can’t leave out of the first fours.

LE ROMAIN (11), $19

SI Rating: 54

Replacing Invincible Star who was ruled out on Tuesday morning. $21 into $18 since the barrier draw. The each-way value for mine, so I was shocked to find the model rates him a lowly 54. Super consistent in the weight-for-age G1s and is absolutely the most advantaged of the field by a heavy track. Very dependable. Freshened up (four week break) since chasing home the mighty Winx in the George Main ($500k, 1600m) and is suited more to the 1200m. Has missed the placings just once from ten runs, with seven of those being G3s or better. The track-distance record is even better. Two G1 placings in the Doomben 10,000 ($700k, 1200m) and the Kingsford-Smith Cup ($700k, 1350m) during the Brisbane winter carnival. Beat home Chatauqua on a heavy track in the Canterbury Stakes last year. The barrier draw hurts - badly - but still can’t say no to $5 the place if the track continues to deteriorate.

Stats Insider’s selections: 1-4-10-5

Aaron Murphy’s selections: 10-2-1-3