The Memphis Grizzlies (35-18) and Cleveland Cavaliers (31-20) both tipped the season off under fairly low expectations.

From a championship perspective, neither rated above 1% in the Stats Insider futures projections with the Grizzlies (0.8%) sitting amongst the ‘fun, but not great group’ with the Cavaliers (0.1%) even further down in the ‘processing’ group. 

While neither occupies a large chunk of the championship conversation right now, they’re both in the top half of the projections heading into the second half of the season.

FiveThirtyEight liked Memphis’ chances of returning to the playoffs to be at 59% before the first game of the season. Now, 35 wins later to start February, it will take a monumental collapse from a 99% probability to miss out from here. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s current 80% chance to feature in the playoffs without LeBron James for the first time since 1998 is up from 1% roughly four months ago.

The Grizzlies and Cavaliers are flying higher than anybody expected this season. They’ve accelerated their respective rebuilds and forced a change to their expectations in 2021-22 already. But what about 2022-23 and beyond?

Right now, it looks as though we’re looking at the future of the NBA.

RELATED: Are Nikola Jokić And The Nuggets Ready To Strike NBA Gold?

Where things have gone right

Despite the low expectations heading into this season, to see the Grizzlies and Cavaliers playing so well still isn’t too much of a surprise. The surprise is that it’s happening now, and for the Cavaliers, in particular, not in two or three more seasons.

Much of the same was expected out of the Grizzlies following their 4-1 defeat in the First Round of the 2020-21 playoffs. Ja Morant is a superb talent and the fifth-youngest team in the league was sure to improve. They weren’t, however, expected to improve to be 35-18 and 3rd in the Western Conference - by four games - as the All-Star Game approached.

The Grizzlies are must-watch television right now.

Morant is the main attraction. He is leading the ninth-ranked offence scoring 113.1 points per 100 possessions through 26.1 points, 6 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. His 28.7 points per game on 52.1% shooting in October impressed but few saw the 22-year-old keeping it up all season. Through 15 games in January, he’s averaged 29.1 points per game shooting 49.8% from the field. He’s doing it in a variety of ways, too.

Morant’s 4.5 three-point attempts per game are a career-high - up from 3.8 per game last season. His 35.4% shooting from beyond the arc is also the best mark of his career. He’s an outside threat which only helps him get to where he works best: the paint.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Morant has 13 games with 20+ points in the paint this season. That passes Russell Westbrook (2019-20) and Dwyane Wade (2005-06) for most 20+ paint-point performances by a guard in the season across the last 25 years. He still has a third of the season to play...

Morant is one of the best players in basketball right now. He’s leading a young team to places few thought possible this season and doing it at a level of play that is seeing him talked about alongside the likes of Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Steph Curry in the MVP conversation. The 22-year-old is playing so well that another discussion never got off the ground: Morant or Williamson?

The answer is pretty clear right now...

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have taken a more committee-like approach to their success.

Evan Mobley is a physical freak and lock for Rookie of the Year already, Darius Garland has picked up the slack left by Colin Sexton's injury, and Jarrett Allen, Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen make up one of the tallest and longest supporting casts in the league.

While the Cavaliers have found some success with the ball to improve on last season's 28th-ranked 105.8 defensive rating to be 15th scoring 110.9 points per 100 possessions in 2021-22, it’s their defence that has put them amongst the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Allowing only 106.1 points per 100 possessions, the Cavaliers are playing with the third-best defence in the league right now - up from 25th last season.

Cleveland’s protection of the rim, in particular, is producing at an elite level right now.

“A good rim protector or rim-protecting scheme is - quite clearly - a recipe for success on the defensive side of the ball.” - Why Elite Rim Protection Still Matters In The NBA

Mobley and Allen are both inside the top ten in the league in contested shots per game. The pair are a major contributor to Cleveland playing with the best rim protection in the league as opponents shoot just 57.7% at the rim per Cleaning The Glass. 

Further from the rim, the Cavaliers keep opponents to just 33.9% shooting from beyond the arc for the fourth-best mark in the league. They close out on the perimeter and funnel ball-handlers to the rim to give up the fourth-most shots at the basket. That puts pressure on the perimeter shooter and should they get the defender in the air and blow by, they’re presented with a seven-footer or two and the best rim protection in the NBA.

It’s different to how the rest of the league is operating without the ball right now. But, clearly, it’s working.

RELATED: Access Denied- Why Elite Rim Protection Still Matters In The NBA

Learning from each other

The Grizzlies have a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate in Morant - a requirement for winning a championship.

The Cavaliers have a top tier defence that could soon become the best in the NBA, and as we know, defence wins championships.

As both exceed expectations to rise up the conference standings, it’s a few lessons from each other that can take them to the next level. Perhaps even to an NBA Finals matchup in the coming years.

With the Grizzlies under no illusions over who will lead the franchise for the next decade, they’ve been able to unearth what is starting to become an excellent supporting cast.

Desmond Bane just dropped a career-high 34 points, seven rebounds and three steals on the Philadelphia 76ers and is averaging 18.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game this season.

Dillon Brooks hasn’t been able to stay on the court but has looks good when he does. He’s putting up career numbers across the board including a 52.1% true shooting percentage.

Steven Adams doesn’t fill up the box score but is still the toughest man in the NBA and the bodyguard to this young group while De’Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, Ziaire Williams and Tyus Jones have all had their moments throughout the season, too.

However, it’s Jaren Jackson Jr. that now holds the key to unlocking Memphis’ potential.

The 22-year-old has oodles of potential and is starting to realise it through 16.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. His unicorn athleticism perfectly compliments Morant with the two able to connect on plays few other duos in the NBA can even dream of drawing up. While Jackson Jr. hasn’t added the spacing through his three-point shot quite like the Grizzlies would have liked while shooting 31.4% on 5.3 three-point attempts per game, we’ve seen him succeed on the perimeter in the past. If he can get close to the 39.4% on 6.5 attempts per game he managed in 2019-20, lookout.

But it’s on the defensive end that he will make a bigger impact. The man blocked 50 shots in January - including two six-block performances - to record 19 more swats than second on the list. Jackson Jr. is behind only Myles Turner in blocks per game (2.3) and block percentage (4.1%) this season.

JJJ is the piece of this puzzle that can take the Grizzlies over the edge in the coming seasons. He can be the defensive anchor that sees Memphis replicate Cleveland's dominance on the defensive side of the ball. If the Grizzlies can continue to threaten with the ball through Morant while locking teams down in front of a frightening rim protector, they’ll be well-positioned to succeed in the post-season.

In contrast, the Cavaliers can look at the Grizzlies and where they can improve. Chiefly, it’s finding ‘the guy’ and developing the team around them.

Is Evan Mobley the future number one option on this team?

Is the role better suited to a guard with Darius Garland on the verge of an All-Star nod?

It’s worth remembering that Collin Sexton was part of the All-Star weekend last season and talked about as a possible inclusion in the main event, too.

A Mobley, Garland and Sexton trio is a mighty fine looking ‘Big 3’. It’s particularly impressive when you add Jarrett Allen to the mix. Still, even the best dynamic duos or Big 3’s have a top dog and determining who that is can be a painful process.

Sexton took control last season but an injury forced him to hand the reins over to Garland who has responded at an All-Star level. However, Mobley is a probable Rookie of the Year and an incredibly talented 20-year-old who already plays beyond his years. He’s two years younger than Garland and three years Sexton’s junior, but his ceiling rises high above both and it’s only a matter of time before these questions have a clear answer.

After winning ROY in 2019-20, Morant has become one of the best players in the league. If Mobley can take a similar path and the Cavaliers defence keeps up with him, we’re looking at one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference for years to come.

The Cavaliers and Grizzlies are generating similar emotions: Surprise, fun, excitement, shock. But they’re doing so in different ways at the moment. If they can continue on this trajectory and take some tips from each other, we’re looking at the 2024-25 NBA Finals.

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