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The Knowns And Unknowns From The NBA's Opening Fortnight

We're two weeks into the 2021-22 NBA season and things aren't getting any clearer.

The Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and New York Knicks top the Eastern Conference while the Utah Jazz, Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks are doing the same in the West.

The 4-3 Los Angeles Lakers have the best seed of the expected championship contenders and they've rarely looked anything like a team that could lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

It's always a battle to pick what is real and what isn't at this time of the season. Still, we're looking into three things that might be something. Or nothing...

RELATED: Check out Stats Insider's full season NBA projections 

Harden's Shooting

James Harden has been one of the most frustrating players to watch in the NBA in recent seasons. Unless your laundry basket is filled with the same jersey he is wearing, chances are you've been left shaking your head as he embellishes contact and stops the game for yet another free throw. 

In response to a growing trend of diving and baiting across the league, the NBA announced that referees would no longer be instructed to whistle fouls on unnatural shooting motions this season.

The change to officiating is for the good of the game overall. Players and fans have been vocal about how much better the NBA is to watch this season but Harden is one player that is being forced to adjust.

There is more physicality in the game this season. Defenders are now allowed to have their position which means Harden can't throw his body in every direction on marginal contact and get a call. He is averaging just 18.6 points per game (his lowest since 2011-12) and shooting a career-worst 39.8% from the field. Harden is particularly struggling in the paint and restricted area - spots on the court he typically finds success.

Harden's true shooting percentage was above or equal with the league average in every department last season. He topped 60% in the paint and restricted area in 2020-21. However, he has not only fallen behind that 60% in both areas, but is shooting worse than the league average.

It may just be a shooting slump more than changes to how the rules are being interpreted, though. Harden himself has repeatedly said that his conditioning - or lack of it - is the main reason for his slow start to the season. A Grade 2 hamstring strain restricted him towards the end of last season and throughout the off-season. He's not the first player you think of when considering which guys will be sweating through the summer and preparing their body for the following season early either.

Harden is known as a player that gets to the line whether it be through legitimate or overstated contact. He averaged over ten free throws per game between 2014 and 2020 before averaging 7.3 trips per game last season. That number has dropped further to 5.3 free throws per game to start this season and goes some way to explaining his drop in numbers.

What seems to be going unnoticed is the number of shots he is taking has also dropped from 22.3 per game in 2019-20 to 16.7 per game in 2020-21 and further still to 14 per game through seven games of this season. The rate he is drawing fouls, however, is roughly the same as it was last season (14.2%) at 13.9%.

Harden's woes to start the season are something, but not necessarily a direct result of the rules. He's shooting poorly and that is unlikely to last much longer while referees will stick with their interpretations all season.

RELATED: Is Steve Nash Still The Right Man For Brooklyn?

The Wizards are doing what now?

The Washington Wizards are 5-2 to be 4th in the Eastern Conference.

This mix and match team made up of Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie and Los Angeles Lakers outcasts have put together some nice wins to start the season.

While we're still waiting to get a real idea of the Chicago Bulls after they started strong against some of the worst teams in the NBA, the Wizards have beaten the Raptors, Celtics twice and the Hawks. Now, those aren't the Nets, Bucks, Lakers or Jazz, but they're fairly middling wins and the sort that does set them up nicely to continue this run of form into November.

One of the most encouraging parts about this early-season run is Beal's somewhat sub-par play. Still a top tier player at his position and the leader of this team, he is averaging seven fewer points per game despite putting up almost two more shots a night. His 37.9% shooting from the field and 22.9% from beyond the arc are mildly concerning as he looks to be one of the players alongside Harden that is taking a moment to adjust to the new rules. 

Beal is being afforded that moment thanks to Dinwiddie's superb start to the season.

Dinwiddie's smarts and intensity don't always show up in the numbers, but his 18.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 37.5% on 5.3 three-point attempts per night make for good reading.

There is a bit of Dame and CJ about this Wizards back court, and unlike the Trail Blazers duo, Beal and Dinwiddie have an appealing group of role players around them.

Kyle Kuzma has always shown flashes of potential across his four seasons in the league but has struggled for consistency. It's early, but Kuzma's 15.9 points and 11 rebounds per game have come as a result of consistent play across six consecutive games and he looks capable of filling the role as the third scorer on this team. If it's not Kuzma it will be Montrezl Harrell who is on fire to start the season. With three consecutive games scoring 20+ points and breaking the mark in four of his first six games, Harrell is averaging a career-high 18.4 points per game.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Davis Bertans, Raul Neto and Deni Avdija are also providing quality minutes for the Wizards to be 14th in offensive rating and an impressive 8th in defensive rating per Cleaning The Glass.

The Wizards snuck into the playoffs last season but lost Russell Westbrook to the Lakers. While that looks like a big loss on paper, cohesion and teamwork matter. It looks as though the Wizards have a better balance of both in 2021-22.

6th Man Melo?

"I think people don't really understand me. I think there's a misconception out there about me and not being able to adapt to situations. But I'm easily adaptable, man, to any situation." - Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony is 9th on the list of all-time scorers in the NBA. He has spent the best part of 19 years putting the ball into the basket to average 22.9 points per game since his rookie season in 2003-04. He has played 1,198 games in that time - 1,117 as a starter.

Coming off the bench isn't a role Anthony has always accepted, but in the twilight of his career and with limited chances to finish his career with a ring, the 37-year-old has done so without a fuss. 

He's perfect for the role, really. Stand around while LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook look to make plays, when the ball gets to you, shoot it.

Melo has connected on 50% of his shots and a barmy 52.2% of his three-point attempts for 16.7 points per game so far this season. His 28 points were the catalyst to LA's first win of the season and he has cracked 20+ points three times already. 

Melo will have off nights. He couldn't get into a rhythm while shooting 1-7 for four points against the San Antonio Spurs last week. However, with James and Davis expected to miss a decent number of games throughout the year and his ability to heat up and put up points on any given night, Anthony is going to put up numbers.

His shooting percentages will normalize, but we could be in for one of the most remarkable Sixth Man of the Year races ever if Anthony can keep up this level of play.

Learning on the fly

We're looking back to last week to see if we know anything more about the Lakers, Bulls and Heat.

Losing Lakers

The Lakers have started to win a few games but the major concern is still prevalent despite the 4-3 record.

Russell Westbrook is still finding his place in the rotation and it hasn't been pretty. He produced the most Westbrook-like performance he could in a horror loss against the Thunder.

Bulls: Are They Good?

As it turns out, the Chicago Bulls might just be pretty good.

They are still playing well to be 6-1 and at the top of the Eastern Conference standings. After expressing caution on their start to the season last week, they took care of the Utah Jazz to win 107-99. Although, the Jazz didn't have Mike Conley on the floor.

This is still very encouraging, though.

Most heartening is the fact the Bulls are winning games they are meant to win. That hasn't been the case in recent seasons. Only the Grizzlies have lost more games as favourites than the Bulls since 2016. The Bulls are starting to buck that trend to have won four of their five games as favourites this year with a DeMar DeRozan miss at the buzzer against the Knicks all that is stopping them from making that five from five.

Lukewarm Heat

The Miami Heat opened the season by thrashing the Milwaukee Bucks before giving the Indiana Pacers their first win of the season. They're 4-1 since then and behind only the Bulls in the East, though.

Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo have both missed time but Jimmy Butler is scoring 25.3 points per game while Tyler Herro stays hot for his 22 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists a night. This group is going to be tough to handle every night. Lock them in for a top-five seed in the conference.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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