A year ago today, Club 20 punters were fist-pumping and high-fiving as they watched front bar favourite Christiaan Bezeidenhout shoot a 65 in his opening round at TPC Sawgrass..…

A year ago tomorrow there were frowny faces, numbed silences and no small amount of man-tears as the PGA Tour joined the COVID Casualty ward, cancelling The Players tournament and postponing the Tour for three months. 

These past twelve months have felt like 17 years, but we are back in Florida for The Players and we really feel like one was taken away from us here, despite the event being called after just one round, and despite Deki shooting a 63 in that round. 

But, but, we was robbed I tells ya! 

This tournament owes us a winner at odds – let's go find one shall we.

RELATED: Check out Stats Insider's comprehensive Players Championship projections

Course Notes

Highly recommend watching this 4-min Flyover. Once you do, you’ll see why TPC Sawgrass is such a volatile course to bet.

There is water everywhere, your approach game has to be on, and if you don’t have a fairway finder with distance attached, you're in barney rubble. 

More so than any other course on tour, the superstars are just as likely to be mowing their lawns on Saturday morning as the Tyler Duncan’s of the world. 

Take ball strikers with good around-the-green game / double bogey avoidance and then prioritise the Bermuda putters.

Not much wind to speak of this year which is rare.

Da Bets

Before we get into the bets, we need to address last week which was a bit of a dumpster fire. 

Wyndham Clark and Patty bloody Reed missed the cut on the number, Cam Davis found way too much water and if Will Zalatoris had have finished Par/Bogey instead of farking double/bogey, we’d have had a solid little profit week and happy days. 

He didn’t, it's golf, we move on. 

Harris English did show signs of life after a horrid month so the positive takeaway for us is that the Stats Insider model was spot on in identifying the discrepancy between its tournament predictions and market odds. 

Adam Scott $5 EW @ 67/13 (Top 8)

No one in this field has better course-form than Scotty, and whilst everyone and their aunties have been telling us all week to throw out course-form on such a volatile track, we disagree. 

From 12 trips to Sawgrass, Scott has made 12 cuts, finished inside the top-20 NINE times, and has not been outside the top 12 in each of the last 3 years. His win here in ’04 was the making of him. He likes this place and his game suits.

His tee-to-green game at the WGC was horrendous, but he missed Bay Hill last week and you have to think he has tidied that up. Has the putter working (gained over 3 strokes in each of the last 3 events) so if he can get his driver working, club down abit and hit some long irons when needed, his approaches can take us to a big win here. 

Max Homa $5 EW @ 90/18 (Top 8)

Homa’s Florida swing has been incredible, and we're hoping to ride the heater one more time for his Players debut. 

His putter is on fire (gained 8 strokes last week, over 4 at Riviera and 3 at Pebble!), he's solid off the tee, and when the wind has been down he has been sticking his irons exactly where he wants them to go. 

The Stats Insider model gives him a 10.7% chance to hit the top 10 this week, so taking him for eight places at 18’s in the each-way Outright market looks the play because if that putter maintains, he will putt his way to a win here. 

Doc Redman $5 @ 350/70 (top 8)

The Doc has had a bit of a stinker of late, but we saw signs of life in the final round at Bay Hill, both with the irons and also with the putter, which has been just ice cold this last month. 

In form, Redman is in the very top echelon of ball strikers on the PGA Tour, particularly long irons. Trouble is, he's out of form, but vast majority of that has derived from his putter. 

We saw signs on Sunday at Bay Hill (ranked #8 putting final round) and really, Redman should be around that 125-1 at worst, he is more than double what he should be for the player we are getting. 

Add in Sawgrass variance and there is every reason to think Redman spikes his putting turnaround with a really good iron week. 

Christiaan Bezeidenhout $5 EW @ 71/14

After our crybaby story at the start of this yarn, how stupid will we feel if we don’t bet him and he continues this red hot putting form AND gets his driver sorted. 

It is a course that should suit him as you can club down a lot here and hit a stinger to position. His approach numbers are good, and his around the green/putting is up there with the very best. 

He is going to find the water though, it’s just what he does, we just have to pray he finds some chip-ins and 45ft putts to counter. 

Top 40 Multi – Redman, Scott, Homa, Bez Top 40 $10 @ 74

We like the four guys we’ve gone with this week, the Stats Insider model likes them as well, (relative to their price) so we are sticking with a condensed side.

Despite being very tempted to go again on Harris English and Will Z, they were left out this week (so yeh, probably load up).

Our 4-man card may all make the weekend and yet fail to go deep on Sunday, which would suck, so we’ve included them all in a Top-40 multi to give us even more fun should they all see Saturday action.

More to come on Twitter

Every Player, Every Shot is the motto for The Players this season, and luckily we get to watch that here in Australia via the PGA App and Golf TV, a fact we will be taking advantage of tonight in order to make the most of some 3-ball matchups on Day 2. 

Come and follow us on Twitter and make sure you check out the Stats Insider Golf pages to see if you can spot something we didn’t (then, obviously, tell us about it). 

Enjoy and always remember, restock the beer fridge. 

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