The Stats Insider Model Delivers Two Huge Upsets
May 14, 2018, 7:37AM
Stats Insider Modelling delivered two huge upsets in the weekend of AFL & NRL action, picking one huge winner in either sport as the Port Adelaide Power and South Sydney Rabbitohs won pivotal contests against fierce rivals quite literally against the odds.
The 44th South Australian Showdown was a cracker, as Port Adelaide won with what was practically the last opportunity of the game when Steven Motlop kicked a goal from 35m out on the run to give them the lead back with 25 seconds to go. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs trampled the Premiership favourite Dragons 24-10.
On Saturday night in South Australia, the Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide played out one of the best ever Showdowns in the derby's 44 game history, as the Power rallied from 27 points down in a huge third quarter rally, as Robbie Gray played the hero with a thrilling five goals in a seven-goal Power quarter.
Port Adelaide had a 17 point lead with just over 3 minutes remaining before Adelaide kicked three magnificent goals in quick succession to take the lead with less than a minute remaining after Mitch McGovern goaled from 50m out.
But Motlop and the Power would not be denied, breaking through defenders to slot the winner in front of a 50,000-strong crowd to snap Adelaide's 5 consecutive Showdown wins and even the overall ledger at 22-wins apiece.
Stats Insider's Opening Lines segment indicated that Port Adelaide's $2.40 odds were a juicy pick, and the Power delivered.
Adelaide were an 86 percent chance of victory midway through the third quarter, and looked like certain winners after McGovern's goal in the fourth quarter, but Port Adelaide would not be denied and overcame the odds to win a stunning game.
Meanwhile in NRL action, the Rabbitohs delivered as a $2.55 Opening Lines underdog to upset the St.George/Illawarra Dragons 24-10 on Sunday afternoon in Sydney.
The Rabbitohs led from start to finish, as Stats Insider's modelling had them as a 50-50 prospect despite the bookies having them as the underdog. Sam Burgess and Greg Inglis were pivotal, as they inflicted the Dragons second loss of the season.
According to SI's Win Probability Index, the Dragons were never close either, as Souths cruised through the game and showed themselves as genuine contenders.
