The Tackle: NRL Round 2
Last updated: Mar 21, 2019, 1:55AM | Published: Mar 20, 2019, 10:02PM
The talk in NRL circles is finally back to footy!
At least, it was until expansion and relocation took over, as though there hadn't been eight games played over the weekend with another eight to come this week.
If an intriguing Thursday night game and an always brilliant Queensland Derby can't turn the conversation back to the field, then nothing will.
For all of our NRL content throughout the season, visit the FREE Stats Insider NRL Hub where you can see futures projections, fixtures, match predictions and more.
* DISCLAIMER: Stats Insider's match projections are dynamic and subject to change up until kickoff. All predictions referenced in this piece are correct at time of publishing but it is always worth checking out the match pages.
Dragons v Rabbitohs
When & Where: Thursday 21 March, 7:50 PM, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Keep an eye on: Blake Lawrie
The youngster has the unenviable task of filling in the minutes normally reserved for Jack de Belin and now Tyson Frizell. 22-year-old Blake Lawrie is a gritty young player that doesn't shy away from contact, but with only 16 first-grade games to his name, he's in for a massive test here.
Match Comment
The Rabbitohs are coming in hot after beating the defending NRL Premiers in Round 1. Meanwhile, the Dragons are doing all they can to tread water in the wake of de Belin's court case, Frizell's injury, and the juggling over who plays when and where in the spine.
Who Wins & Why?
It's South Sydney's game to lose. They're currently 3rd in the Stats Insider Premiership Projections at 11.5%, coming off a relatively comfortable win over the 2018 Premiership winners, and are largely healthy. The Dragons, on the other hand, struggled against the Cowboys last week and lost yet another key forward. The mountain looks too high for the Dragons to climb this week.
Betting Value
The Rabbitohs are getting a small nod in the head-to-head market with the Under at 38.5 points also carrying value. With that, a 'little win' for Souths at 36% also appeals. View the model’s free match predictions here.
Raiders v Storm
When & Where: Friday 22nd March, 6:00 PM, GIO Stadium
Keep an eye on: The Hookers
Despite his age, Cameron Smith is still regarded as the best hooker in the NRL. If anybody is going to overtake him in that department, it's Josh Hodgson. The Englishman is in for a big season now that he has finally recovered from his ACL injury. How he fares against a future immortal in Smith will have a huge impact on the result.
Match Comment
The Storm looked scarily good at times last week. Any hopes people had that their time at the top might be coming to an end are all but dashed already. The Raiders are still a relative unknown, compared to their Round 2 counterparts. Their 21-0 win over the Titans in Round 1 was handy, but not a game that you can pull much from.
Who Wins & Why?
The Storm, because, they're the Storm. But seriously, their pack led by Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Jesse Bromwich and Tui Kamikamica is massive, mobile, and able to shift the ball. Unlike previous years, the Raiders are running with a smaller pack. It's difficult to see how the Green Machine stops the Storm from getting down the field.
Betting Value
The Stats Insider model likes the Raiders to keep this one close to cover the +4.5 spread, while the Unders at 41.5 points also carries some value. View the model’s match predictions here.
Broncos v Cowboys
When & Where: Friday 22nd March, 7:55 PM, Suncorp Stadium
Keep an eye on: Anthony Milford
He was hammered for a quiet game last week despite playing behind a beaten pack. It will be tough for the Broncos middle's again this week, but look for Anthony Milford to have a bit more of an impact on Friday night.
Match Comment
It's a fairly important match for Anthony Seibold and the Broncos. It's their first at home for 2019 and first Queensland Derby for Seibold. A loss to go 0-2 to start will reflect poorly on all the hype that followed the Broncos into the season. With their Round 1 win, the Cowboys unloaded a lot of the pressure brought upon them by their unpredictable 13th-place finish in 2018. It's always a good time when these two teams meet in the middle.
Who Wins & Why?
Expecting a better performance than last week, and considering the Suncorp factor, the Broncos should take the chocolates here. James Roberts' injury threw a spanner in the works last week and following the early onslaught, Brisbane was never able to recover. Their outside backs, in particular, are far superior to North Queensland's.
Betting Value
The Broncos are the favourites but the model likes the Cowboys as underdogs both head-to-head and at the line. View the Stats Insider model’s match predictions here.
Sharks v Titans
When & Where: Saturday 23rd March, 3:00 PM, Shark Park
Keep an eye on: Shaun Johnson
He left a fair bit of the work to Matt Moylan and Chad Townsend last week but expect to see him take a bit more control as he grows comfortable in his new team.
Match Comment
It's a big game for the Sharks, this one. At home against a team missing their first-choice halves, the "it's only Round 2" excuse won't fly if they can't get the job done here. With a penalty try their only four-pointer last week, they need to start finding the line against a Titans team that looks set to leak a few points out wide. As for the Titans, simply looking better than last week will do. Not much is expected of them without Ash Taylor and Tyrone Roberts. They do need to keep it close, though.
Who Wins & Why?
The Sharks are the better side on paper and should be too good at home. Without Taylor and Roberts, it's unlikely that the Titans have the points in them to keep up with what is expected to be an improved Sharks attack. Unlike last week, a bit of rain might help the Titans in this one.
Betting Value
Nothing. Nada. Check back in on the free Match Page closer to kickoff.
Knights v Panthers
When & Where: Saturday 23rd March, 5:30 PM, McDonald Jones Stadium
Keep an eye on: The Panthers Start
If the Panthers again start slowly and display too many of the traits that put the handbrake on their 2018 season, nerves will build at the foot of the mountains. It doesn't matter how early into the season it is.
Match Comment
These two played out very different Round 1s to start the year. The Knights are coming off a gritty win in which they finally won a game on strong defence. Meanwhile, the Panthers lost to the 2018 NRL wooden spooners. Unlike in Round 1 last year, the Panthers couldn't reel the Eels in and complete the comeback win. The pressure is on Penny.
Who Wins & Why?
Who knows, really? The Panthers have the better list on paper, but the Knights have the form, albeit, only 80 minutes of it. McDonald Jones Stadium is far from a fortress with the Knights only winning four of 12 games at home last season. Anticipating a desperate Panthers side to play a lot better, they get the lean - just.
Betting Value
The Stats Insider model disagrees. Knights head-to-head and at the -2.5 Line are the plays while the Under at 40.5 also gets a look in. View the model’s match predictions here.
Sea Eagles v Roosters
When & Where: Saturday 23rd March, 7:35 PM, Lottoland
Keep an eye on: James Tedesco
Kept uncharacteristically quiet for just 87 running metres last week (averaged 192.8 in 2018), James Tedesco looks set to go ballistic in this one. It's unlikely that he is kept to under 100 running metres again this week - if again this season.
Match Comment
As if playing the defending NRL Premiers this early wasn't bad enough for the Sea Eagles, the Roosters come in smarting after an unexpected Round 1 loss. To add to Tom Trobojevic's injury, Manly are also without Addin Fonua-Blake (suspension). With Lottoland losing its reputation as a tough place to visit throughout the lasts season, there are ominous signs for the home side here.
Who Wins & Why?
It's a struggle to look past the Roosters in this one. Maybe, just maybe if Trbojevic and Fonua-Blake were available you could entertain the idea of an upset. However, just looking at the backlines in this one is enough to side firmly with the Roosters.
Betting Value
The model really likes the Sea Eagles as a roughie, but it's lean towards the +10.5 Line might be the better way to go. View the Stats Insider's match predictions.
Bulldogs v Eels
When & Where: Sunday 24th March, 4:05 PM, ANZ Stadium
Keep an eye on: Mitchell Moses
He went alright in Round 1. Better than he looked throughout 2018, anyway. If the Eels are to quiet the doubters and exceed what are very low expectations, Mitchell Moses will have the most to do with it. It's these games against teams closer to Parramatta's level that he needs to dominate.
Match Comment
This isn't blockbuster material, but it could be interesting. Can the Bulldogs bounce back from their horror 40-6 loss to the Warriors? Can the Eels continue to build on a surprise win over the Panthers with Nathan Brown ruled out for three months?
Who Wins & Why?
Despite the huge gap in form and results from Round 1, this game might be closer than many expect. The Bulldogs have a competitive pack while the Eels have lost arguably their best forward in Brown. The Eels are the pick, but only just. They displayed some promising signs in attack and while they are without Michael Jennings (suspension), they do have the better talent out wide.
Betting Value
The model isn't interested in anything outside of the Bulldogs early on, and their +7.5 Line at the time of writing. View the model’s free match predictions here.
Tigers v Warriors
When & Where: Sunday 24th March, 6:10 PM, Campbelltown Stadium
Keep an eye on: David Fusitu'a
The NRL's leading try scorer didn't get on the board last week despite the Warriors running in seven tries. Look for him to find his way to the line this time around.
Match Comment
Both teams offered up encouraging starts to the 2019 NRL season in Round 1. The Tigers accounted for a poor Sea Eagles team, while the Warriors did the same to the Bulldogs. As both clubs are expected to hover around the Top 8 in 2019, this game is bigger than most, this early in the season.
Who Wins & Why?
It's a coin flip. The Stats Insider model has them split down the middle at 50% probability each after 10,000 simulations. With their impressive form away from home in 2018, a fast start to 2019, and the uncertainty around Wests Moses Mbye and how he returns from injury, the Warriors have the slightest of edges.
Betting Value
The model is heading along the same line taking the Warriors head-to-head and at the +1.5 Line currently. Under 38.5 total points also carries some value early on. Worth checking back closer to kickoff. View the model’s free match predictions here.
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