The Tackle Round 3: Rabbitohs best team in the NRL?
Last updated: Mar 29, 2019, 4:18AM | Published: Mar 27, 2019, 11:47PM
Round 3 of the NRL kicks off on Thursday night at Suncorp Stadium - Queensland's home of Rugby League - where the Dragons will be desperate to arrest the two-game slide they've started the season on. Meanwhile, the Warriors and Sea Eagles prepare to ride an emotional roller coaster in Christchurch as one of three games that could be tipped with a coin toss this week.
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Raiders v Knights
When & Where: Friday 29 March, 6:00 PM, GIO Stadium
Keep an eye on: Kalyn Ponga
As if he isn't grabbing the attention of every footy fan right now anyway, it's worth keeping a closer eye on his touches this week. Kalyn Ponga is touching the ball seven fewer times as a five-eighth than he was as a fullback in 2018, through two games so far this season.
Match Comment
Both the Raiders and Knights have been hit and miss during the opening two rounds of 2019. Each played well to record victories in Round 1, only to disappoint in Round 2 as each picked up their first loss for the year.
Canberra and Newcastle's defensive improvements are clear, but their attack hasn't been up to scratch in the opening weeks.
Who Wins & Why?
As the home side, the Raiders do get a slight nod here. The packs are relatively even. Likewise, the spines are close and equally disjointed as they adjust to new five-eighths. It's a game that could go either way so #TrustTheModel. Stats Insider's projection has it slightly closer than the bookmakers.
Betting Value
It's another donut in the value section at time of writing. Check the model’s free match predictions closer to kickoff.
Eels v Roosters
When & Where: Friday 29 March, 8:05 PM, ANZ Stadium
Keep an eye on: Roosters Handling Errors
We do know that completion rates aren't the be-all and end-all of a good football side, however, making 12.5 handling errors per game can trip up even the best teams in the competition. The Roosters have dropped more ball than anybody throughout the first two weeks.
Match Comment
The Eels are riding high following back-to-back wins, but in reality, they've beaten a very off Panthers team in Round 1, and the favourites for the wooden spoon in the Bulldogs in Round 2. This is their first real test.
With the Roosters welcoming back Cooper Cronk and Jake Friend after a week on the sidelines, this feels like the game the defending NRL Premiers announce themselves in 2019.
Who Wins & Why?
The Roosters should get the job done - comfortably - on Friday night. Their 26-18 result last week flattered the Sea Eagles; the Chooks switched off at halftime. While the Eels appear to have improved and at least look capable, they're still well below the Roosters in quality.
Betting Value
Those Eels improvements have the Stats Insider model all over Parramata value in this one with plays on them in the head-to-head and line markets (despite having the Roosters projected to win 65% of the time) while also liking the look of the Under 40.5 points total. View the model’s free match predictions here.
Sea Eagles v Warriors
When & Where: Saturday 30 March, 3:00 PM, Christchurch Stadium
Keep an eye on: Tom Trbojevic
He's back! Playing his first game for 2019, 'Tommy Turbo' is a shining light for this dreary and uninspiring Sea Eagles backline.
Match Comment
It's a Sea Eagles home game - played in Christchurch, New Zealand. That already puts the Sea Eagles on the back foot before considering the emotion the Warriors will carry into this game following the terror attacks just a fortnight earlier.
The Sea Eagles have struggled both weeks, with their backline far from feared. Meanwhile, we've already seen the best and the worst of the Warriors. They can't afford a repeat of their 14-error effort from last week.
Who Wins & Why?
The Sea Eagles have sacrificed the boost from a home crowd for some dolla, dolla bills, yall. It could also cost them two competition points. Playing in front of Christchurch footy fans starved of rugby league, the Warriors will have the crowd behind them. With their superior roster - and lessons learned from last week - the Kiwi franchise should be too good here.
Betting Value
The Stats Insider model doesn't find any value in the two teams but has handed the Under at 42.5 points a big green smiley play at time of publishing. View the model’s free match predictions here.
Cowboys v Sharks
When & Where: Saturday 30 March, 5:30 PM, 1300SMILES Stadium
Keep an eye on: Corey Jensen
He's named to come off the bench but Corey Jensen has taken the injured Jason Taumalolo's spot in the 17. Nobody can replicate to sort of impact the Tongan has on a match. Can young Jenson go close?
Match Comment
The first of three games in a row at home - and up to ten total - without Taumalolo, the pressure is on the Cowboys. They can't afford to let too many of these home games slip under the circumstances. Winning as many as they lose without Taumalolo would be considered a success.
No strangers to slow starts to a season, the Sharks struggled in the opener before playing 40 minutes of good footy in Round 2. A spray from Shaun Johnson might be enough to spark them up for a full 80 minutes this week.
Who Wins & Why?
The model has predicted the score at 19-19, so who knows? The Sharks attack looked brilliant in the first half last week, and with the turnover in players on the edges for the Cowboys, Cronulla are a chance at piling up a few points. We might be relying on a single moment of brilliance to decide this one. With his performance last week, look for Johnson to provide it.
Betting Value
The model is going to need some more time to find any value in this one. Check the model’s free match predictions closer to kickoff.
Panthers v Storm
When & Where: Saturday 30 March, 7:35 PM, Carrington Park, Bathurst
Keep an eye on: Josh Mansour
He missed last week due to injury and makes his return against arguably the best back-three in the NRL. Hampered by injury, Josh Mansour has been disappointing over the last 12 months. He'll need to be at his best here to give the Panthers a good chance at victory.
Match Comment
Penrith have taken this game to the bush as they try to correct a horror run of results that has seen them lose 17 of their last 19 games against the Melbourne Storm. Terrible in Round 1, and only slightly improved in Round 2, the Panthers need to make another leap to even compete in this one.
It's been the same old story for the Storm to start 2019. They're pretty good again, as usual.
Who Wins & Why?
The Storm are so good that they should leave Bathurst with the two points. Without Viliame Kikau and Isaah Yeo in the backrow, it's difficult to see the Panthers keeping up with what has been a brilliant Storm pack to start the season. Expecting the Storm to win the battle in the middle and with Smith pulling the strings, the Storm look the goods.
Betting Value
While the Storm are expected to take the chocolates, the Stats Insider NRL model likes the Panthers to keep it close with a 4% edge at the +4.5 line. View the model’s free match predictions here.
Tigers v Bulldogs
When & Where: Sunday 31 March, 4:05 PM, Campbelltown Stadium
Keep an eye on: Robbie Farah
The elder statesman put on a clinic in deft touches from dummy half against the Warriors last week. He's playing smart footy and not forcing his hand. Look for him to pick this shoddy middle defence apart on Sunday.
Match Comment
Blessed with three games at home to start the season, the Tigers are making the most of it so far. With back-to-back wins already, they now play a team in the Bulldogs that has barely looked like winning a game at all.
Outside of an encouraging 20 minutes against the Eels, the Bulldogs have been poor. Really poor. They're favourites for the wooden spoon and it's not even close at this point. Dean Pay has made some changes, but they're going to have to click soon to save this season.
Who Wins & Why?
The Tigers are being hyped up a little more than they should be, but they are deserving favourites here. There's a good chance the Bulldogs can pull back some respectability and keep it close. However, the experience of Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall will get the Tigers over the line.
Betting Value
Some of that Tigers hype might be coming through in the markets. The Stats Insider model likes the look of a small wager on the Bulldogs at their head-to-head odds, having simulated the predicted scores of this match. View the model’s free match predictions here.
Rabbitohs v Titans
When & Where: Sunday 31 March, 6:10 PM, ANZ Stadium
Keep an eye on: AJ Brimson
He's had a couple of weeks to get his feet underneath him after a disrupted pre-season. It's time for AJ Brimson to recapture his 2018 form and turn the attacking fortunes of the Titans around.
Match Comment
The Rabbitohs might look the best of all 16 NRL teams at the moment. They're scoring plenty of points and holding up strong defensively to be 2-0 through two rounds. Given what the Titans have dished up in attack so far, the Bunnies won't need to do anything different on the defensive end this week.
The Titans have managed just one try in 160 minutes of football. Their attack is directionless and largely unthreatening. Against a well-organised line like that of the Rabbitohs, the Titans need to ask a lot more questions this week.
Who Wins & Why?
The Rabbitohs by plenty. We got a little bit excited about the Titans and their forward pack before Round 1, but they've done nothing to keep that excitement alive. The backline has been even worse on the back of it. This one could be a blowout.
Betting Value
Despite all the form going one way, the model is at least intrigued by the Titans head-to-head price. View the model’s free match predictions here.
* DISCLAIMER: Stats Insider's match projections are dynamic and subject to change right up until kickoff. All predictions referenced in this piece are correct at time of publishing but it is always worth checking out the match pages throughout the weekend.
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