Round 4 of the NRL season shapes up as a tipsters nightmare.

The defending premiers are battling injuries ahead of a blockbuster on Thursday night. Likewise, the Cowboys, Sharks, Bulldogs and Dragons are all trying to replace key players in important positions. 

It feels like it's the case every week, but there's only one game in Round 4 with a clear favourite. The rest could go either way.

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Roosters v Broncos

When & Where: Thursday 4th April, 8:05 PM, Sydney Cricket Ground

Keep an eye on: Kotoni Staggs

The 20-year old has only played 12 first-grade rugby league games and this will be just his second start. He can play, though. It's any wonder why another team hasn't come in and tried to poach him yet.

Match Comment

The Broncos need to win this one. While a 1-3 start wouldn't be an absolute disaster, it would trigger the first real wave of Brisbane media scrutiny directed towards Anthony Seibold. He's replaced the master of the media. Seibold isn't ready for this yet. The Broncos players need to go out and do the business to save their coach from a week of questions.

There are no such issues for the Roosters. Even in their relatively unconvincing wins, you can see that they're one of the NRL's elite teams.

Who Wins & Why?

Brisbane have beaten Sydney in each of their last two games, and will go close to making it three in a row here. The Roosters are without Jake Friend and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. Meanwhile, the Broncos have Matt Lodgereturning and their best backrow possible running out there for this one. The Broncos pack looks promising, but their form coming in is a worry. With it becoming a trust exercise, it's hard to go past the Roosters.

Betting Value

In a game that feels especially difficult to tip, the Stats Insider model is also struggling to find value. Check the model’s free match predictions closer to kickoff.

Warriors v Titans

When & Where: Friday 5th April, 6:00 PM, Mt Smart Stadium

Keep an eye on: Chanel Harris Tavita

Because he's on debut and can do this:

Match Comment

This is what the 6pm timeslot is for, isn't it? The game between two inconsistent battlers that could well be a dud?

It's not one people will be rushing home to watch.

The Warriors have been abysmal over the last two weeks, conceding 80 points. Naturally, they dropped rookie halfback Adam Keighran as though he was the problem. The Titans are without a win, but are at least improving. It's a desperate time for both clubs despite it only being Round 4.

Who Wins & Why?

Ash Taylor and Tyrone Roberts return for the Titans but it doesn't look like it will be enough. Their uninspiring attacking systems require a lot more than Taylor and Roberts to start singing. While the Warriors have been poor of late, they're traditionally strong at home. It's one that could go either way so the home ground advantage and the Warriors stronger list gets the nod.

Betting Value

The Stats Insider model isn't interested in anything about this game at the time of writing. Check the model’s free match predictions closer to kickoff.

Panthers v Tigers

When & Where: Friday 5th April, 8:05 PM, Panthers Stadium

Keep an eye on: Nathan Cleary

He's shut off social media and his spot in the New South Wales State of Origin side is already coming into question. Pressure is building on the 21-year-old.

Match Comment

This game has just as much happening off the field as it does on it. The fallout from Ivan Cleary's departure from the Tigers will reach fever pitch on Friday night. It's the first time he will face his old club since walking out on them at the end of 2018.

As for the footy, the Panthers can't afford another loss for a 1-3 start with the expectations they carried into the season. They simply have to beat this Tigers side who will be rueing their missed opportunity to go 3-0 against the Bulldogs last week. 

This has NRL Match of the Round potential.

Who Wins & Why?

With Viliame Kikau and Isaah Yeo returning this week, the Panthers are fair favourites. The pair link the halves to an exciting backline that is still without a try in 2019. With their first-choice backrow finally intact, anticipate a much-improved Panthers side. 

Betting Value

There's nothing just yet. Check the model’s free match predictions.

Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs

When & Where: Saturday 6th April, 3:00 PM

Keep an eye on: Adam Reynolds

With Nathan Cleary struggling for the Panthers, there's talk of an open Origin spot. Adam Reynolds can put his hand up here if he wants to.

Match Comment

The Sea Eagles came to life with Tom Trbojevic in the team last week. Their 46-12 thrashing of the Warriors kickstarted their season after two sub-par performances in the opening rounds.

While the Rabbitohs haven't recaptured the level of play from their Round 1 victory over the Roosters, they've still been winning relatively comfortably. Wayne Bennett has this group doing what they need to do, and this week should be no different.

Who Wins & Why?

The Rabbitohs should do this with ease. Brookvale isn't the fortress it once was and Manly's big win last week might be getting a little too hyped up. The Warriors were exceptionally poor. This Rabbitohs outfit isn't capable of playing that badly even on their worst day. With a pack big and strong enough to handle Manly's Marty Taupau and Addin Fonua-Blake, Souths will be tough to beat in the middle. When the Bunnies win the battle in the middle, they more often than not win the match.

Betting Value

There's a bit to like from the Stats Insider model in this one. Manly head-to-head and at the +4.5 line both demand attention. However, it's the Under at 43.5 points that has the big green smiley next to it. View the model’s free match predictions here.

Cowboys v Raiders

When & Where: Saturday 6th April, 5:30 PM, 1300SMILES Stadium

Keep an eye on: Josh McGuire

The former Bronco put his hand up to fill Jason Taumalolo's role in the side with 196 running metres last week. The challenge is doing it every week like the big Tongan.

Match Comment

The Cowboys struggled last week in the wake of Taumalolo's injury. While they kept it close in the first half, their inability to turn possession into points cost them, with the Sharks taking the 42-16 win back to the Shire. Jake Cliffordand Michael Morgan have had another week to work on their combination, so there's hope for an improvement.

How the Englishmen respond to the Townsville heat could have a say on this one. Accustomed to the chilly conditions in Canberra, Josh Hodgson, John Bateman, Elliot Whitehead and Ryan Suttonwon't have played in too many games that allow for a drinks break every 20 minutes. 

Who Wins & Why?

We're trusting the Cowboys pack for one more week. Even without Taumalolo, they should be able to dominate the Raiders through the middle. There is enough points in the home side if they can give themselves enough opportunities to attack from inside the 20-metre line. 

Betting Value

This game is a lottery, and right now, the model doesn't have the winning numbers. Check the model’s free match predictions closer to kickoff.

Eels v Sharks

When & Where: Saturday 6th April, 7:35 PM, ANZ Stadium

Keep an eye on: Bronson Xerri

First of all, it's pronounced "Sherry". There will be plenty of people unsuccessfully navigating the 'X' all weekend. It's unlikely they have any trouble after Saturday night, though. The kid is a gun and will soon be a household name.

Match Comment

Paramatta's game against the Roosters was a test of their capabilities, but this one is a test of their consistency. Many are still anticipating some wooden spoon worthy form to transpire sooner rather than later.

Cronulla, on the other hand, are threatening top four chatter. Shaun Johnson has fit right into their attack and looks at home with the experienced players around him. If not for Matt Moylan's injury, they'd be heavy favourites here.

Who Wins & Why?

Battling injuries and playing away from home against a team that has struggled to win over the last 12 months, this game is taylor made for the Sharks. Their grit and grind style is perfectly suited to this one.

Betting Value

On that grit and grind style, the Stats Insider model has a slight lean towards this game falling Under the 40.5 points total. Check the model’s free match predictions closer to kickoff.

Storm v Bulldogs

When & Where: Sunday 7th April, 4:05 PM, AAMI Park

Keep an eye on: Jack Cogger

Kieran Foran played his best game for the club last week. Now injured and out for three months, Cogger gets a crack at cementing a spot in the first grade side. He's played 20 games for the Knights over the last three seasons, but this is his first in Bulldogs colours.

Match Comment

The Storm are running hot and look like genuine NRL Premiership contenders once again. They embarrassed the Panthers to win by 30 points last week. More importantly, they've only conceded 24 points all season.

While the Bulldogs played well to beat the Tigers last week, they enter this one a class or two below the Storm. It could get ugly early.

Who Wins & Why?

The Storm should win this in a canter. There's a reason the Line is so big - and still growing. Second in attack, and first in defence against the favourites for the wooden spoon, this game is unlikely to throw up any surprises.

Betting Value

That massive +17.5 headstart is enough for the Stats Insider model to get on board as the lone play for this one, but this could change as we get closerto kickoff. View the model’s free match predictions here.

Knights v Dragons

When & Where: Sunday 7th April, 6:10 PM, McDonald Jones Stadium

Keep an eye on: Zac Lomax

The Dragons have unsuccessfully tinkered with the bench utilty option over the first few weeks. It's going to be interesting to see how Paul McGregor uses Lomax, if he uses him at all.

Match Comment

The Knights need to win this one. If they're to make the most of their favourable schedule over the first five weeks of the season, they can't afford to drop to 1-3. Ending the Kalyn Ponga at five-eighth experiment acts as a nice reset button, but he can't waste any time in getting back to his best. 

Meanwhile, the Dragons are dealing with a spine reshuffle of their own. Forced into it by Gareth Widdop's injury, Matthew Dufty, Ben Hunt, Corey Norman and Cameron McInnes can begin to iron things out with an eye on this being the first-choice spine for the remainder of their season.

Who Wins & Why?

The Dragons seem better put together ahead of this one. If Tyson Frizell makes it into the 17 for gameday, they're going to be really tough to beat through the middle. It's one to wait until an hour before kickoff, but at the time of writing, the Dragons look the goods.

Betting Value

It may take up until an hour before kickoff for the value to show too. The Stats Insider model doesn't have anything for us early. Check the model’s free match predictions closer to kickoff.

* DISCLAIMER: Stats Insider's match projections are dynamic and subject to change right up until kickoff. All predictions referenced in this piece are correct at time of publishing but it is always worth checking out the match pages throughout the weekend.

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