We’re swimming in winnings at Club 20 this afternoon after a huge night of State of Origin that saw Tommy Turbo land four bets including a huge 50-1 winner (3 tries). 

Needless to say, the big win last night will lead to (has already led to) overexcitement today for the PGA and AFL, so take caution in our bets below as we may still be slightly drunk!

Oh also, before I forget because I didn’t mention this yet I don’t think…

Ok that’s enough, I'Ll stop now (probably), let’s get into the golf. 

PGA TOUR – Palmetto Championship

We’ve got a new course to unpack here, the Congaree Golf Club in South Carolina.  

Few things you have probably already heard, it is a long (7655yd) Par 71 with no rough. That’s right, no rough, just the one length of grass throughout (fairway) and if you miss that, you are in sand (natural waste areas) and you are at the mercy of your lie (just ask Lowry at the greenside ‘bunker’ at the PGA at Kiawah). 

The course has been modelled on a Royal Melbourne type linksy still course and is likely to play pretty quick despite a rainy week, so hitting these Bermuda greens will be pretty tough if you are not on the fairway.

There really are too many unknowns here to make selections that we’re really happy with, so lets go over what we do know.

Firstly, being on the eve of the US Open, this field is super shithouse. Secondly, see point one. 

Sure Brooks, DJ and Tyrell have turned up and should (if they want to) make the weekend, but even the next tier of guys like English, Fitzy and co aren’t playing well enough to guarantee themselves a tee time Saturday. 

Secondly, with the weakness of this field and how the course is designed to play, approach game and experience on links style courses is being bumped up this week for us. Fairways seems relatively easy to hit off the tee here and there should be plenty of run so the formidable course yardage is perhaps not as daunting as it first appears. 

With this info in mind, and with a wad full of winnings, we are going to get a little bit carried away with a very ambitious 7-Leg Top 30 Multi, taking all 4, 5 and 6 leg combinations as well as the 7-legger (64 bets) which is going to pay a lazy 7k for each dollar you put on!!

The Card

There is just not that critical mass of a dozen or so guys where you can just lock in to make the cut here, there aren’t even five, so this week I think the Top 30 market might as well be the Top 40 market, only we’re getting pretty sensational odds. 

If four of these guys make it, even the shortest four, it is at least money back. But if five or more make it…

Martin Laird @ 2.50

Laird gained 11.7 strokes on approach at the PGA Champs. Just let that soak in. Those are career best numbers. If he had of putted he’d have contended. Last week at Muirfield he gained 3.9 strokes on the greens but the irons didn’t fire. That’s golf as they say, but I see those two spikes with irons and flatstick in back to back weeks and that’s enough to put Marty in. Expect to see him putt a lot around the greens which should mitigate his wedge shockers. 7 of his last 8 cuts and a T23 and T38 in the first two Majors of the season is good enough in this field. 

Vincent Whaley @ 2.60

After making his last 9 cuts in a row, I’m still not sure if Whaley is good or just on an absolute tear. Has saved some ball striking blemishes with a white hot putter lately, but in each of his last nine starts he has done 2 or 3 things really well and made the weekend. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach at the Charles Schwab and he likes Bermuda so I have to have some faith that his best result of T20 last start can be improved upon here. 

C.T Pan @ 2.70

Despite making his last three cuts including a T57 at the Memorial last week, Pan has not been playing great golf. This is a pure feel play as I think his irons can elevate him here. When his approach game is on, he invariably fires with the putter because he is just sticking it that close, and im bumping him slightly here due to his experience at Royal Melbourne with the International team in 2019 (which seems like 37 years ago). T3 at the Honda and T18 at Wells Fargo shows he is never far away from spiking. Enough signs especially in this field. 

Seamus Power @ 3.50

Coming off three made cuts including a T9 at the Byron Nelson, Power likes Bermuda and seems to have his short game dialed in. If he can mitigate his woes off the tee here I think he can make the weekend and land a good bet for us. Gained almost 5 strokes on approach at the Wells Fargo and will have relatively good experience playing on this type of course, especially around the greens. 

John Pak @ 4.20

This kid if the next big thing as they say, the #1 player in College golf by the length of the Flemington straight, so we are blind betting John Pak given his collegiate form and the dominance of Morikawa/Hovland/Wolff (before he broke) when they first entered the tour. Pak is on his PGA debut and gets a really soft field. Like seeing them stay all four years at college, he shot low am at the US open (T51) last year and I think this 4.20 will seem very silly from books come tournaments end. 

Luke Donald @ 5.00

Donald has had three excellent weeks with his irons that culminated with a T13 at the Byron Nelson thanks to +8.1 on approach. His driver has been horrendous but his experience, current iron form and love of Bermuda greens I think is enough to bump him up into the card. May have found something and if he can sustain it here there is every chance he lands a good T30 for us. 

Davis Thompson @ 5.50

Thompson was #2 behind Pak all year at the College level. Has had a small taste of PGA Tour with a few sponsors exemptions (one results in a T23 at the RSM two years ago) but again, these two kids are the Morikawa/Wolff of this season. If they bomb, so bet it, but there is a very good chance that they are a lot better than most of this field. 

Come in and pull up a chair

Ok that’s our card. I feel dirty for having typed most of those words, but then I look at the potential winnings and think what the hell, it’s Turbo’s shout anyway!

Last night landed us enough to have some fun at this third-rate PGA event, a full bar fridge, some AFL bets throughout the weekend and still have our kitty ready for Torrey Pines next week. 

Shoutout to front bar regular Matty who almost handed us a $101 winner last night, was a fun sweat late mate! 

If you have a bet you like come on in and pull up a chair.

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