Toronto Raptors' Biggest Opponent Might Be Themselves

When the Toronto Raptors sent DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs for Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard, there were mixed feelings around the NBA world about what this team could be. 

It was a somewhat risky move given Leonard only has one year left on his contract, but should he go, Masai Ujiri will attempt the rebuild he's always been prepared for since joining the franchise in 2013. It's a risk worth taking for the Raptors after seeming to concede that DeRozan wasn't the way forward. 

With a new-look team and Nick Nurse now in charge after the Raptors fired the 2017-18 Coach of the Year, Dwane Casey, the expectation was this team would be good, but possibly slow to start. 

The reality has been entirely different. 

Toronto has flown out of the blocks to have the best record in the NBA (18-4) a quarter of the way into the season. With Steph Curry going down and the Golden State Warriors showing some vulnerability, the Raptors have set the pace for 2018-19. 

READ: Steph Curry is Even More Valuable Than You Think

Despite only playing nine games all of last season, Leonard has played at an elite level and is looking better for the reps every week. He's wasted no time in getting back to the top with averages of 24.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Kyle Lowry received an early mention in the MVP discussion averaging 15.6 points and a career-high 10.2 assists. Serge Ibaka has been typically strong for his career-high 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. 

Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam has announced himself as another valuable option. He's the ideal do-it-all Mr Fix It type of player the Raptors desperately needed. Down on points and need somebody to step up? Siakam can fill the bucket with his 66% effective field goal percentage. Looking for a lockdown defender? His quickness, smart footwork and 7'3" wingspan has so far leant itself to the best defensive box plus-minus in the team (2.2).

According to @NBA_Math's FATS Calculator, the Raptors perform like a 63.2-win team with Pascal Siakam on the floor.

With Siakam on the bench, they play like 42.8-win team.

Dude shoots fewer than 10 times nightly and makes an insane impact anyway. pic.twitter.com/0KmtMO1Gie

— Frank Urbina (@FrankUrbina_) November 29, 2018

Siakam is the ideal fit for this team and with his willingness to do whatever is required of him sits behind only Lowry in team win shares with 2.9 for the season.

Of all of the lineups that have spent 120 minutes on the floor together this season, Leonard, Green, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam have the best net rating at +15.8.

The pieces of the puzzle are coming together with expectations rising to the point this season is a bust if they aren't still playing in June.

Finding Holes In The Raptors

Statistically, the Raptors are up towards the top in all the right areas. 

Their 114.3 offensive rating is good for second in the NBA. Had Leonard not missed six games this season, there's a good chance they'd be at the top considering their 116.3 offensive rating with him on the floor. 

With a 55.8% effective field goal percentage (3rd in the NBA), the Raptors are one of the most efficient teams in the league. 

Inside and outside, the Raptors are a threat. 

Bang on the league average of 29.2 field goal attempts in the restricted area per game, only the Warriors and Bucks connect at a better clip than the Raptors' 67.7%. 

Toronto doesn't subscribe to the three-point heavy offenses quite like other elite teams. Again, they are close to the league average in attempts. But almost everybody can knock one down if they're called upon despite only two being exceptionally efficient. 

Of the 219 players averaging more than two three-point attempts per game, Green expectedly tops the list for the Raptors at 43% in 29th. However, you need to go all the way to 96th before you find Kyle Lowry with 36.6%. The pair are the only two Raptors shooting above the 35.2% league average with 2+ three-point attempts per game, although, we can expect Leonard to be up there again sooner rather than later. 

Elite in the restricted area while efficient and improving beyond the arc, defenses have nowhere to hide against the Raptors. 

Perhaps more importantly, Toronto is a strong defensive team themselves to be seventh in defensive rating at 106.9. 

While being anywhere inside the Top 10 is enough to be considered an excellent defense, the Raptors could still get better. 

With a few injuries and the odd change to the rotation, the Toronto bench has underperformed up to this point in the season. While their plus-minus as a team is +8.9 for second in the league, the Raptors bench produces -1.0 for 20th. 

The bench shoots a poor percentage from deep and is third in turnovers. As a result, the play a lot of transition defense where they sit in the 20th percentile. However, with the likes of Fred Van Fleet, OG Anunoby and Jonas Valanciunus anchoring the bench, we can expect an improvement. 

The team with the best record in the league and offensive and defensive ratings in the top seven is still a good chance at developing further.

Rewriting History

It may be a little premature, but the Raptors are an elite team in the championship conversation. They deserve to be talked about as though the regular season is a mere warm-up for an inevitable playoff run. 

The expectation is the Boston Celtics will be towards the top by the end of the season, and the Philadelphia 76ers will be there or thereabouts. The Milwaukee Bucks look good now, but this is their first real season battling with the big boys. 

Whether those three are all playing at an elite level by the end of the season or not, there's one narrative that will put the Raptors under pressure regardless. 

Their playoff history. 

Famous for underachieving in the post-season in recent years, the Raptors will need to buck the trend and go deeper than they ever have. Not once since their inception in 1996 have they made the NBA Finals. We've lost count of how many times they've fallen short of expectations. 

In more recent years, they've only managed to make the Conference Finals once while underachieving every other year.

Sure, they've had to go through LeBron James in each of the last three seasons. It's his time of year and when he tends to remind us of his greatness and status as the best player in the world. Nevertheless, two wins in 14 attempts including eight losses in a row doesn't cut it. 

A close series loss people can handle. Being swept after opening the series as favourites is tough to stomach and something that will be regurgitated through the media the further into the post-season that Raptors get. 

LeBron James is no longer a hurdle Conference-wise, but the competition in the East is better this season than it has been in years. 

Toronto's arch nemesis is gone; however, the challenge from other Eastern rivals might be greater. We've been starved of consecutive playoff series' in the East for years. Now we've got four teams and maybe more that all intend on making a splash. 

There's still 60 games and many months to go, and there's still a lot of work the Raptors can do to jump another two or three levels in their play. But no matter how much the Raptors might improve over the course of the season, we won't know if they've really made the leap until they're wearing celebratory t-shirts. Or at worst, have them printed and ready to hand out.

RELATED: The Lakers Adjustment to Life With King James

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!