The 2020 NFL season is a massive delivery box, clearly marked ‘FRAGILE’. 

As Covid-19 cases continue to soar across a broken country ahead of a general election, the NFL, unlike the NBA, hasn’t been able to operate in a bubble, either real or metaphoric.

Players have been infected, stadiums closed down, schedules re-arranged, yet like the broader United States, the NFL remains determined to keep its ‘business as usual’ sign out front.

Somehow we’ve reached Halloween, which ordinarily acts as a demarcation point as to who’s good and who’s not in the league. And so let’s use the one day America proudly unites in its horror to take the NFL’s pulse and assess the biggest themes so far this season.

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CONTINUITY MATTERS

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the NFL’s only undefeated team is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Head coach Mike Tomlin is in his 13th year, 38-year old Ben Roethlisbergerwas drafted in 2004, while general manager Kevin Colbert is in his 20th year at Three Rivers Stadium. 

I joined The Punt Return Podcast at the halfway mark of the 2020 NFL season to talk about this very subject before Week 8 kicks off (article continues below):

Familiarity and continuity within a year that’s contained anything but has been vital to success. It’s also why the Steelers are joined by exceptionally well-run franchises such as Seattle, Kansas City, Green Bay and division-foe Baltimore as being the five teams presently prevailing as Super Bowl favourites. Even a perennial cellar-dweller like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are enjoying the fruits of experience, with 43-year old league legend Tom Brady working wonders with veteran coach Bruce Arians, while 56-year old NFL-lifer Todd Bowles has electrified a defence, fuelling their 5-2 start.

At the other end of the spectrum, it’s no surprise to see that perennial tyre-fire franchises like Washington and Jacksonville, along with the Jets and Giants, have struggled desperately, combining for a 4-24 start and reminding the rest of the league that a pandemic only exacerbates deep-seated issues.  

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QUARTERBACK IS STILL KING

Yes the outside world is falling apart, but on the gridiron, one constant is that the NFL is still ruled by elite play at quarterback. In fact, if you have any kind of chance in 2020 its very likely due to your franchise having a brilliant play-caller under centre.

Of the 11 players currently enjoying a QB rating of at least 100, only two, Houston’s Deshaun Watson and LA Chargers rookie Justin Herbert, have losing records and appear to be out of the playoff race. The other nine are filled with the NFL’s brightest stars such as Russel Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.

TD passes on 40+ yards throws:
1. Russell Wilson - 3
2. Patrick Mahomes - 2 pic.twitter.com/dbiAc4LYMT

— PFF (@PFF) October 28, 2020

What’s refreshing is seeing Derek Carr and Ryan Tennehill ranked 3rd and 4th from a QB rating perspective. These were highly sort after, highly drafted QB’s coming out of college, yet struggled mightily in the early part of their careers. Carr’s helped the Las Vegas Raiders to a 3-3 start and has the franchise dreaming of just its second playoff appearance in the last 18 seasons. As for Tannehill, he’s piloted an excellent Tennessee Titans squad over the last couple of seasons which this year flew out to a 5-0 start, only to be bought back to earth last week, and rather emphatically at that, by the Steelers. 

And just as elite QB play is essential in the modern NFL, teams continue to be plagued by under-performance at the sport’s most crucial position.

Most rushing attempts per game (QBs)

◾ Cam Newton - 11.3
◾ Kyler Murray - 8.5
◾ Lamar Jackson - 8.3
◾ Josh Allen - 6.3
◾ Patrick Mahomes - 5.7 pic.twitter.com/z2HfkYPBjn

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 25, 2020

Of the nine teams posting a QB rating of less than 90, only the Chicago Bears have a winning record and remain in playoff calculations. The once invincible New England Patriots have struggled without Brady slumping to a 2-4 start, while Carson Wentz is also posting career-worst numbers with Philadelphia. However, what’s been most surprising is Minnesota’s complete fall from grace, with the Vikings marooned at 1-5. After three playoff appearances in five seasons, they’ve been doomed by a dreadful Kirk Cousins campaign, with the $66 million man throwing a league-high 10 interceptions so far.

RELATED: Is Drew Brees Holding New Orleans Back?

DEFENCE REMAINS UNIMPEACHABLE 

In a league that continues to dance to the beat of rampant offence, it remains fundamental as ever that to be a Super Bowl contender, you’re able to at minimum able contain what the opposition wants to do, and at best, completely disrupt them.

Yes the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year with a middling defence, but it’s one that improved greatly from previous editions and was able to step up in big moments. It also helped having one of the league’s greatest ever offences on the other side of the ball.

Season 2020 has proved once again that you simply can’t afford to be packing a mediocre defence. 

From a DVOA perspective, Tampa Bay lead the way, closely followed by the Steelers and Ravens. While the Indianapolis Colts haven’t been spectacular on offence this season, their 4th ranked defence has them in playoff contention. It’s a similar story with the Bears, who are once against experiencing their ever-familiar QB trauma, but whose defence is keeping them afloat. At 2-5, Washington are in trouble, yet their defence has been excellent to date with sophomore edge rusher Montez Sweat stealing the show, already registering 11 QB hits and 5 sacks. 

Another interesting note I just discovered about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

No team with at least 35% DVOA through Week 7 has ever missed the playoffs.

The best team ever through Week 7 that missed the playoffs was 2009 Denver, which was 6-0 (34.7% DVOA) at tht point.

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) October 28, 2020

Yet back to the Steelers who remain the league’s only undefeated team. While Ben Roethlisberger has had a solid, however not spectacular campaign, their defence has been simply jaw-dropping, leading the league with 64QB hits and 24 sacks. While they have benefitted from a powder-puff schedule so far, their two assignments against Baltimore in November will reveal just how good they are. 

Seattle remain the most interesting team in terms of their early season ability to overcome its dreadful defence. While they're tied with Green Bay at 5-1 for the best record in the NFC, their defence is ranked 28th by DVOA and has produced just 9 sacks. They do of course have odds-on MVP-favourite Russel Wilson, while their defence is still forcing turnovers even if its leaking yards. Their 12total takeaways rank 3rd in the league.

RELATED: Can Aaron Donald alone take the Rams back to the NFL's summit?

IN CLOSING

Yes, the storm clouds are as thick as ever over both the NFL, and the very country which houses this exceptional competition. Yet navigating your way through all the mayhem of this year has been much easier if you’re equipped with strong continuity, an excellent QB and a lights out defence. Some teams like Pittsburgh have packed all three this season, while others like Seattle need only tighten up in one area to be a genuine Super Bowl chance.

Just how the last few months of the year play out both in the NFL and at a political level remain precariously poised. Yet assuming the world doesn’t explode, and the NFL continues to vault towards its destination, its best to be tethered to franchises who have their houses in order. 

Elite sport has no time for making it up on the fly, which the NFL has once again proved conclusively in this unforgettable year. 

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