VRC Kennedy Oaks Preview

Thursday is Kennedy Oaks Day, which means it’s time for the girls to shine on and off the track. Our non-gendered Stats Insider model is also bound to shine after another successful day - on Melbourne Cup Day, of all meetings - booting home a couple of double-figure winners. Insane. With the assistance of the SI ratings, yours truly had his first ever profitable Cup Day (in over a decade of punting). Amazing given how new it is. 

CHECK OUT OUR MELBOURNE CUP RESULTS

Onto the feature: the Kennedy Oaks over 2500m. Many of these ran in three lead-up races: the Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m, Flemington, Oct 6); secondly, the Ethereal Stakes (2000m) on Caulfield Cup day, which was raced on a soft (6) surface, so the race could be a good form line if the Flemington track staff can’t get it back to a good (4) in time. The third lead-up, which was used to build fitness for much of the field, was the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) on Derby Day, where we got a better understanding of who is likely to see out the step up in distance.

They have also given us some fascinating betting moves, with the fancied trio of VERRY ELLEEGANT, ARISTIA and AMPHITRITE all trading favouritism amongst themselves over the past fortnight. Doesn't look to be a lot of speed on which could make it a battle of race tactics and we could see some surprising frontrunners. Expecting SIZZLEME to burn across from the wide gate and join MISS MOANA in front, with MARACAIBO and GREYSFUL GLAMOUR leading a big chasing peloton.

SEE STATS INSIDER'S FULL KENNEDY OAKS DAY RATINGS

Flemington Race 8: Kennedy Oaks

1. AMPHITRITE (5)

Craig Williams / Darren Weir

SI Rating: 100

Steady at $3.50. Had drifted away from favouritism less than a week ago but the favourable barrier draw brought the price back in.

Clearly, the one to beat, just hasn’t been exposed over anything longer than 1600m so you’re gambling on her being able to step up to 2500m. What you can be confident in is that DK Weir will be ensuring she’s right up for it. Stormed into favouritism after sprouting wings in her Thousand Guineas win and could have done the same on Derby day but had a luckless run so we’ll never know. Has jumped slowly in three of her last four starts but that won't be too much of a problem from this draw.

Broke her maiden on soft ground, running 35.80 in the final 600m - which is a bloody good time for soft track racing - so if the track remains in the soft range by 5pm Thursday she shouldn’t be disadvantaged. Has also won at Flemington and Williams rode her to the Thousand Guineas win so that’s two more boxes to tick. Classiest in the field.

2. ARISTIA (4)

Damian Lane / Ellerton & Zahra

SI Rating: 97

Steady at $4.60. Drawn to have a good run alongside Amphitrite. Just one career win to her name but they had her running sprints and middle distance gallops throughout the winter and she has raced much better over the 2000m, making good ground behind Verry Eleegant in the Ethereal and then getting the job done on Derby Day in the Wakeful. Arguably does her better chasing over soft ground, even when midfield, so could be advantaged by a soft (5). Should be cherry ripe to tackle 2500. 

3. QAFILA (10)

Jim Crowley / Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig

SI Rating: 96

$8.50 into $8.00. 4L off Amphitrite in the Thousand Guineas but has improved with every run since, peaking in the Wakeful behind Aristia last start. She was held up for a run at the wrong time and still made good ground late. Jim Crowley stays onboard and he has booted home a few winners in Australia already. Hasn’t done a lot throughout her career to scream out as an Oaks winner before then, and the draw isn’t particularly helpful, so happy to keep her in mind only as an exotics player.

4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (13)

John Allen / Darren Weir

SI Rating: 94

$4.20 out to $4.80. The Weir/Allen combo has been solid gold for a long time, most recently adding a Victoria Derby to their long list of achievements. They have in Verry Elleegant a very good chance to also triumph in the Oaks, though it looks as though the punters are waiting for a better price before trusting her again. 

Finished third in the G2 Edward Manifold as an equal favourite, before charging past Aristia in the Ethereal and then most recently burning favourite-backers on Derby Day. Still ran the best closing 600m in the race despite the result, so worth a forgive. Probably fitter than Amphitrite, but gate 13 does no favours, and you’ll need to trust the Irishman to get her settled in a good spot as she does tend to overrace, which is suicidal for a 2500m G1.

11. ZAPURLER (3)

Hugh Bowman / Darren Weir

SI Rating: 93

$15 into $13. By far the most impressive of the provincial/country entrants, you’ve got two big-race names in Weir and Bowman on your side if you like Zapurler. Built up some fitness in some staying maidens before the breakthrough win at Echuca a fortnight back (2124m), where she gobbled them up 400m out and cantered away for a comfortable 3.5L win. Drawn to give Bowman options, and while she too needs to lift massively, she’s not the worst $3.50+ place chance. 

8. MISS MOANA (9)

Mark Zahra / John Sargent

SI Rating: 93

$21 out to $23. John Sargent trains some fine 3yo fillies but Miss Moana comes here straight from a Newcastle Saturday maiden, having needed five attempts in 22k-35k maiden races at provincial tracks to find a win. The way she finished off in Newy over the 2340m was promising, and he’s got himself a good filly, but not a Kennedy Oaks winner. 

10. SCAMPER (12)

Kerryn McEvoy / Leon & Troy Corstens

SI Rating: 88

Steady at $31. Another promising provincial filly. Won in authoritative fashion at Yarra Valley, charging to the line over 1950m in a fair time. Similar to Maracaibo, will need to take a massive step up to take this out. 

5. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (1)

Tim Clark / Mark Newnham

SI Rating: 84

$15 out to $16. Winner of the 1800m Oaks trial at Flemington in very impressive fashion but not a great deal since to suggest that she’s got the upside to convert it into a win here. Went to Sydney for a trial and never ended up racing (because of the rain perhaps?) before returning for an underwhelming 7th in the Ethereal behind a few of these. Needs all the water out of the ground to be in this and a repeat of the trial performance would have her in contention. 

12. COLLECTABLE (11)

James McDonald / Robbie Griffiths

SI Rating: 76

$15 out to $17. The best value of the roughies for me. Sprouted wings in the Ethereal where she just had far too much ground to make up, and she should eat up the 2500m. Before that, she beat home Grinziger Star in a Geelong maiden, who went on to put up a fair effort in the Victoria Derby. Has the best Aussie jockey in the country on her back. He should be able to slot her into a better position here so that she’s thereabouts around the long home turn. 

9. MARACAIBO (8)

Simon Baster / Busuttin & Young

SI Rating: 74

Steady at $34. Maracaibo is another one who comes straight to the Oaks from provincial racing, and given the performances we’ve seen from the city slickers in this field, it’s hard to have any of the country raiders unless they’ve shown incredible potential. Maracaibo has put together consecutive wins in Canberra and Benalla, but the closing sectionals weren’t inspiring. Needs to produce a lot of upside to be in it here. 

6. SIZZLEME (14)

Luke Currie / Cindy Alderson

SI Rating: 67

$13 out to $19. Placed in the Ethereal and fourth in the Wakeful but failed to see out the 2000m on both occasions. A better sight in the Wakeful where she gave them something to chase down. Drawn the car park and has the early speed to negate it but needs to do so early to get settled in a good spot, because some others are showing better signs of tackling the step up in distance.

7. DARK CONFIDANT (15)

Regan Bayliss / Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig

SI Rating: 57

$31 out to $41. Went through the Edward Manifold and the Ethereal but they’ve kept her fresh for this. Hit the line very strongly in the latter but needs to find seven lengths on Verry Elleegant and Aristia, which would be a monumental effort given they have upside themselves. Outclassed here.

14. MINER’S MISS (2)

Michelle Payne / Patrick Payne

SI Rating: 52

$61 into $51. Nearly chased home Grinziger Star and Zapurler over 2200m at Ballarat before a brutal domination of the field in an Avoca maiden. No real exposure against the kind of class she’ll have to tackle here and not a lot else to suggest she should be shorter than 50/1. We’ll need another once-in-a-lifetime Michelle Payne miracle. 

15. LESEDI (7)

Noel Callow / Robbie Laing

SI Rating: 45

Steady at $201. The maiden of the field, and has failed to fire in six provincial maidens at that. Would need a Lasqueti Spirit-type effort to pull it off but she’s a backmarker so that’s not likely to happen either. 

13. EXCLUSIVELY OURS (6)

Ben Thompson / Matthew Brown

SI Rating: 36

Steady at $201. Savaged the line in the listed UCI Stakes (won by Derby winner Extra Brut) in early October but hasn’t shown much since. Dead last in the Wakeful where there unfortunately were no excuses. Look elsewhere. 

Stats Insider's selections: 1-2-3-4

Aaron Murphy's selections: 1-2-12-5

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